Kerry Still On Top In Ohio , June 29

[Kolesar]

June 29, 2004
Kerry Still On Top In Ohio

(CPOD) Jun. 29, 2004 – Massachusetts senator John Kerry could carry the state of Ohio in the 2004 United States presidential election, according to a poll by American Research Group. 49 per cent of respondents would vote for the prospective Democratic nominee, while 43 per cent would support Republican incumbent George W. Bush.

Independent candidate Ralph Nader garners the support of two per cent of respondents. The election is scheduled for Nov. 2.

Support for all three candidates remained steady since May, with support for Bush increasing by one per cent.

Bush carried Ohio’s 21 electoral votes in 2000, with 50 per cent of the vote. The state has supported the eventual president in every election since 1964.

Polling Data

What candidate would you vote for in the 2004 U.S. presidential election?

John Kerry (D)
Jun. 2004 49%
May. 2004 49%

George W. Bush (R)
Jun. 2004 43%
May. 2004 42%

Ralph Nader (I)
Jun. 2004 2%
May. 2004 2%

Source: American Research Group
Methodology: Telephone interviews to 600 likely Ohio voters, conducted from Jun. 21 to Jun. 23, 2004. Margin of error is 4 per cent.

http://www.cpod.ubc.ca/polls/index.cfm?fuseaction=viewItem&itemID=3223

[ugarte]

1. Ohio is crucial

No Republican has ever won the Presidency without winning Ohio.

[Kukesa]

2. Shrub's Up One Point from May?

I don't like that a bit. Maybe they only phoned people in Cincinnati.

[mosin]

3. One point is meaningless

The margin of error is 4%. A 1% swing is just statistical noise, and isn't meaningful. Until you see a trend over several polls or see a large swing, you can't draw any conclusions.