Poll: Dent, Kerry winning Valley voters

[Freddie Stubbs]

Driscoll trails by 2-1 margin. Bush behind by 6 percentage points.

By John L. Micek
Call Harrisburg Bureau

HARRISBURG | -- Republican Charlie Dent holds a 2-1 lead over Democrat Joe Driscoll in the fight for the 15th Congressional District seat, according to a new Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll.

And Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry has opened a six-point lead over Republican George W. Bush across the Valley, a swing region in a critical swing state. Kerry is ahead 47 percent to 41 percent.
In the previous Morning Call/Muhlenberg poll in May, President Bush and Kerry were tied at 45 percent, but jitters over the economy and ongoing losses in the Iraq war have nudged Kerry ahead, pollster Christopher Borick said.

''Kerry has leveled his boat in the state and the Lehigh Valley,'' Borick said Monday. ''He is by no means unbeatable, but he is in a strong position for the home stretch.''

Muhlenberg pollsters sampled the opinions of 440 registered voters between Sept. 27 and Sunday. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.7 percentage points. The 15th District includes all of Northampton County, most of Lehigh County and parts of Montgomery and Berks counties.

more: http://www.mcall.com/news/local/all-a1_5polloct05,0,2821540.story?coll=all-news-hed

[liskddksil]

1. We must warn against people splitting their ticket

I work at the Muhlenberg college polling institute where this poll was conducted. When going over the results Monday we found that Driscoll is even losing Kerry voters to Dent. Dent is a popular person in he valley, and unfortunately the carpet bagger image of Driscoll has stuck. The only way Driscoll can win is if people realize that splitting their ticket will not create progress.

[Freddie Stubbs]

2. The carpetbagger thing will be almost impossible for him to overcome

The first time that people heard of him was that he was moving from the Philly suburbs to the LV to run for Congress. That is something hard to overcome, espceially when it is people's first impression. Dent is a popular State Senator who currently represents a significant part of the district. His record is much closer to the center than Toomey's, who was elected three times. This would have been a hard race for most Democrats. I think that Morganelli and Cunningham were the only Democrats who would have been able to beat Dent.