Why are Bucks & Montgomery Counties busting at the seams with Repugs?

[devilgrrl]

I used to live in Doylestown... Oy! The place was infested!

[judge_smales]

1. The lower part of Montco

is quickly turning blue, so there is hope.

[AlabamaYankee]

2. Two factors, IMO

Conservative money fleeing Philadelphia and the old line German farmers. Doesn't get more conservative than that

[themann1086]

3. You think Bucks and Montgomery are bad?

Try Delaware County. Dear god... it's literally a republican convention whenever they swear people into local office here.

Although I saw a DU bumper sticker on a stop sign near my house. So maybe there is hope :-)

[Pale Blue Dot]

4. I also see two factors: money and a subtle racism

All of the Philly suburbs are very wealthy, and overwhelmingly white. I think that the Republican party is VERY interested in preserving this status quo, even if they never come right out and say it.

[themann1086]

9. you hit the nail on the head

Delaware County, collection of big Philly suburubs, was and still is mostly very white... and rich. Some of the suburbs closer to Philly, like my town, are becoming more racially integrated as the city expands (into the burbs). Interestingly, there has been a strange pattern of flight from my town by high-standing Caucasians. Could it possibly be because there are *gasp* blacks moving in? Noooo, of course not, there's no racism any more!

White flight is back and hitting the integrated burbs. It seems nothing changes over 50 years...

[Township75]

19. I don't buy it, because all of PA is mostly white.

Even democratic counties are mostly white, so I have a hard time believing the racism plot...there has to be more to it than this.

And as a former resident of solid Dem Allegheney county, I can tell you racism flourishes there.

[happyslug]

5. How I'm I suppose to know....

South Western Rural Pennsylvania has been Democratic since the Days of President Jackson. Now the City of Pittsburgh was a Republican hotbed but only from the Civil War till 1920(When even the City turned Democratic, removing our last GOP mayor in 1928 and last GOP Councilmen in 1934).

Now the Suburbs can be Republican, but even the Older suburbs are more Democratic than Republican (For Example Mt Lebanon Township), it is only the highest income suburbs that are solidly Republican (Upper St Clair for example).

When the Democrats gets the base aroused, we tend to drive every Republican from the few County Offices they hold (and the GOP only wins in the County when the Democratic base is NOT aroused AND the GOP divides the Democrats against each other). When the GOP wins it is always a close race and than with a lot of money and some divisive issue.

For example when Allegheny County elected its first GOP majority to be county Commissioners since the Great Depression, it was because the Democrats had had coup replacing its old time Commissioners with some young Turks. The problem with the Young Turks was they made a statement that they could win without the help of anyone. The GOP exploited this in the Black community by saying the Democrats said they could win without Black support. This technique worked, the blacks with voted GOP or did not vote and the GOP barely won election.)

The same in the next election, the County had dropped the County Commission form of Government and had adopted a County Executive with Council form of Government. In that first election for County Executive the GOP kept hammering home the Democratic Candidate (Cyril Wrecht) having been found to have "Defrauded" the county. The "Fraud" was technical in nature, Wrecht was the County Coroner and as such had done work for other County Coroners in his office. The proceeds went back into the County Corner's office. This was found to be "Fraud" under Pennsylvania law for the money should have gone to the Commissioners not to the Coroner who did the work. No one ever accused Wrecht of being a crook, but he had to pay back the $330,000 he received and gave to the Coroner's office but this time to the County. The GOP kept saying how "Fraudulent" this was instead of this being a technical fraud, emphasized the "Fraud" part of the charge (This was a civil action not a Criminal Action, no criminal intent was even suggested on the part of Wrecht but that did not stop the GOP from attacking him for being a "criminal"). In addition to that problem Wrecht had another problem, while a good vote getter in Allegheny County, he has one of the highest "dislike" factor in Allegheny County, which the GOP used against him to get they man in. In the subsequent election when the Democrats ran a "regular" politician against the GOP incumbent, the GOP lost. The Divide and Conquer could not work for the Politician had no serious negatives for the the GOP to exploit.

Thus in Western Pennsylvania we tend to vote Democratic, and when out base is up we get the Vote out. We are also provincial, we tend to vote for people who live near us, thus Sanatorium's support in Western Pennsylvania for Sanatorium keeps saying he is a "native" Western Pennsylvanian when he is an import from the East, which I wish would take him back.

This leads to my concern with the Democratic Candidate for Senate, he is unknown in the West and viewed as being from "Philadelphia" (and by Western Pa definition that is everything east of Blue Mountain i.e Harrisburg and east). We prefer Candidates from the West, second choice is the Mountains (including Scranton), Philadelphia is our third choice. Randall only won last year for the GOP just gave up on this state. I do not know why they was NO support for Mike Fisher's campaign, could it be the GOP did NOT want the Governor's office do to the existing and upcoming economic problems??? That is how Shapp became Governor in 1970, the GOP did not want to address the Economic problems of the state and left a Montgomery County Democrat win the Office so he could take the heat for imposing an Income Tax (Which he pushed through twice, for his first one was declared invalid under the State Constitution).

I Believe the same thing happened with Randall's election, the GOP wanted Randall to raise the Income Tax so the GOP could run on the platform it always cut the Income tax rate, while the Democrats not only imposed it, but the only party to increase the income tax rate (I have also heard a Rumor that Mike Fisher as attorney General has just looked into the death of Robert Duggan. Robert Duggan was the Brother in law of Mellon Scaife and died in a hunting accident with Mellon Scaife in 1970. Robert Duggan died just before Duggan was to be indicted for accepting bribes as Allegheny's County's District Attorney. That may explain the lack of support for Mike Fisher, you can not run a campaign if the chief GOP pay master refuses to pay.)

[Ramsey]

6. Not a fair assessment of Rendell win

Rendell ran a superb campaign and Fisher ran a lousy campaign. Fisher outspent Rendell slightly, which leads me to believe the GOP did not give up on him. I don't think the economic straights in the state were so bad that the GOP simply gave up on the governor's office. Plus, Rendell had a reputation of being tough on budgets from his days as mayor when he brought the city of Philadelphia back from bankruptcy. Tens of thousands of Republicans re-registered as Democrats in order to vote for Rendell in the primary, as he was the only pro-choice candidate. Many of them have never gone back to the GOP.

Remember also that PA is a key battleground state for Bush, and a Republican governor would have been a huge advantage to them in the presidential race. Heck, the Bushies even got involved in last year's mayoral race for Philadelphia, I believe because they thought a Republican mayor in this Democratic city would help Bush.

The burbs are Republican because the people that live there are wealthy and they only care about tax cuts. That's my take on it.

[happyslug]

7. I'm coming from the Western part of the state

And from here Rendall was barely known (On the top of your head do you know the Mayor of Pittsburgh? Most people East of Harrisburg do not, while most people from Altoona westward do).

With Fisher's greater name recognition in the West he should have done better than he did, but just ran out of money in the last two weeks of the Campaign. The two most crucial weeks of the Campaign. Rendell's forces were out but you had no mass turnout for the election in the West. You had the people who always voted but that is all. Thus Fisher never was able to get the Vote in the West out (And given Western Pennsylvania's provincialism would have meant a higher turn out for Fisher).

In the last two weeks of the Campaign Fisher ran NO ADS in the west to get people out to vote (and to vote for him). He just disappeared from the airways. Fisher was out of money and what money he did spend he spent in Philadelphia (To get the suburban Philly votes that he could).

I agree with you Randall ran a very good Campaign, but Fisher did not spend the money he needed to win. Fisher appeared to be counting on money he never received (Which may explain why he ran out when he did).

Anyway my point was that Western Pennsylvania Politics differ from Eastern Pennsylvania politics. We are more conservative, yet followers of the Democratic Party. We have been Democratic when Philadelphia was Republican (Even as late as the 1948 Democratic Convention, Truman could call Philly a traditional Republican City). Abortion foe Democrats win in Western Pa all the time (and for that reason it is rare for any Western Pa Democrat to be "pro-abortion" it just does not pay in Western Pa.).

Do not confuse Philly and Philly's Suburbs politics with Pittsburgh's and western Pa's politics. Rendall did not, he left the locals run his image playing down his tax reduction image in Philly (may sell in Philly and its suburbs and sometimes the Mountains but not in Western Pa outside the newer Suburbs). Rendall talked about improving Highways (A big issue in Western Pa, in polls Western Pennsylvanians consistently vote for improve roads even if that means increase taxes, the opposite of what happens in Eastern Pa were reduced taxes is a big issue).

One of my favorite election results was the 1980 Democratic Presidential Primary between Jimmy Carter and Edward Kennedy. This state split right down the middle of the state with the West going with Carter, and the East with Kennedy. When polls were taken of who voted for whom, the same subject group that voted for Carter in the West voted for Kennedy in the East (Be their Liberals, Blacks, Italians, WASPS, pro or anti Abortion people etc).

Another difference between the two regions came up in the Auto Insurance problem. Cases in Pain and Suffering are routinely awarded by Jury's in Eastern Pennsylvania, but rarely in Western Pennsylvania. The same laws applies to both sections but the award is enough that rates in Western Pa tend to be half what it is in Philly and Vincenty (And that is taking into consideration Western Pa''s reputation as a hot bed for Stolen Cars - Cars stolen for their parts).

A third difference is the much higher military service rates of Allegheny County - it has more veterans and more veterans per person than any other County in the state beating out much larger Philadelphia.

My point is Western Pa is NOT Eastern Pa, Western Pa is closer to Chicago than New York and its outlook is like the rest of the Mid-west Not the East Coast. In the City proper you have some east coast liberal tendencies but once you get away from Oakland and Shady side sections of Pittsburgh you are entering a much more conservative but still heavily Democratic area than the east coast.

My point is that there are fundamental differences in outlook between Pittsburgh and Philadelphia sections of Pennsylvania and you must make adjustments for those differences.

[themann1086]

11. wow I

never realized what a big difference there might be between the two halves of the state... Thank you, that was a great perspective outlook.

And I agree with the highway thing. Even I-76 sucks, and that's a major highway.

[TorchTheWitch]

12. ahhhhh... 76

Even I-76 sucks, and that's a major highway.

That's why we call it the "SureKill Expressway" even though the signs claim it's the "Skuylkill Expressway"... although I prefer to refer to it as the "SureKill Crawlway" for obvious reasons (and will go by way of China or Australia in order to avoid it... faster that way). ;)

[happyslug]

14. So the costs to build a road in SW Pa is twice what it costs in Philly.

That does not include buying the land to build on, just construction of the highway. When I travel East I am amazed at the roads, you have twice to three times the Freeways we have AND your non-freeway four lane highways have wider lanes and just bigger than the ones in Western Pa.

The reason for this is that the cost to construct any road in Western PA is TWICE what it is for Ohio or Eastern PA. You have to work around the Ridges, the Rivers AND the coal mines. Unlike Eastern Pa, Western PA has been hopelessly undermined, which adds to the cost of building roads (Through those same coal mines are the reason we have more rails to trails planned than Eastern PA. The Rails were abandoned as the Coal fields were played out):

[happyslug]

15. Some more inforamtion on Western Pa

Fast Facts for Congress:
http://fastfacts.census.gov/servlet/CWSFacts?geo_id=50000US4212&_sse=on

Map of the 12th District (This is John Murtha’s District) it was designed to put as many Democrats in it as possible. It runs from the Coalfields of Green County and Clearfield (Which are separated by at least three other counties that Murtha was only given pieces of) the Mon Valley and the City of Washington Pa (but NOT Ligoneir and its large Republican Population and Ligonier is BETWEEN Washington and Johnstown) the City of Johnstown.

Murtha was given all the Democrats they could so that its next door neighbors could be made more Republican.

[Joy Anne]

20. Blue Mountain

I live right on Blue Mountain, and I'd like to add some perspective to Rendell's electoral success. You Westerners don't watch Philadelphia Eagles football and thus don't realize Rendell's been the "fan commentator" on the Eagles postgame show for years and years. He had a big fan base among rural hunters and nascar dads before he traveled the back roads for months on his campaign bus. Rendell was 20 points plus ahead with 2 weeks to go.
Lots of liberal Republicans--yes, we still have them in Pennsylvania--were mad at Fisher because of his good old boys nomination. Barbara Hafer was shut out of running, when she was the one who deserved the nomination and could have won the general election.
The Democratic candidates we get out of western Pennsylvania are largely unappetizing losers. Look at Ron Klink. From what I saw, his entire campaign was how he didn't get the opportunity to go to college and how he hoped the children of Pennsylvania could. Every voter under 60 was saying, "Well, why didn't you go to night school, Ron?" And I will not vote for a Democratic candidate who is further right than the Republican candidate, which happens in this state.

Joy, in politics on account of Dr. Dean

[ButterflyBlood]

8. really?

I'm not from PA, but according to uselectionatlas.org, Gore won both counties. Also isn't Hoeffel from Montgomery?

[goobergunch]

21. Montco, Bucks, and Delco have been Republican for decades

However, they have been trending Democratic on a national level (as has Chesco, but to a much lesser extent) since the Clinton years. Montco's been going Democratic at the local level at the fastest rate - note that Hoeffel's only been in the House since 1998.

[starroute]

10. I think part of it is a city vs. countryside thing

Philadelphia is largely Democratic, so the exurbs tends to vote Republican in self-defense. In particular, the Democratic Party is perceived as tied in with big city developers, and the Republicans are able to come across as anti-development and pro-environment.

Ironically, it's that same tide of development which is making the area more suburban and thus more Democratic. Especially if Specter is defeated (or badly weakened) and the Pennsylvania Republican Party becomes firmly retro-fundie, we may see some serious realignment going on.


On edit: For those who don't know the area, Bucks and Montgomery Counties both have their feet planted on the edge of Philadelphia and their heads in Nether Nowhere. There are very strong political gradients as you travel north/south.

[mrgorth]

13. White flight

bottom line.

[cap]

16. bucks is catching up in Democrats registered...

there is now a 40K difference between the parties.

[Freddie Stubbs]

17. They may be catching up with registeration

but they have not been able to translate those gains in electoral wins. Greenwood isn't going anywhere, and the courthouse is solidly Republican. At least Mongomery County managed to elect a Democrat to Congress.

[Riptide]

18. I live in southern Chester county, and it is repuke central....

I went to vote in the primary last week, and 6 groups of people were waving papers in my face, endorsing their candidate. I asked them what party, and they said republican. I proudly stated that I was a democrat. They all just said "oh" and took a giant step backwards. It was like they had never seen a real, live democrat before, and were afraid it was contagious.

Then, they had 7 voting stations on one side of the room for republicans and only 2 on the other side for democrats.

I hate living in repuke-ville!