Strayhorn to run as independent!

[WestHoustonDem]

http://www.mysanantonio.com/news/metro/stories/MYSA010206.strayhorn.EN.3b4505e8.html

[sonias]

1. Not surprising

So now we have no one running against Perry in the republican primary then. Do Strayhorn and Kinky have to duel it out as Independents? If they both collect enough signatures to get on the ballot could we have a four way race?

Sonia

[PDittie]

2. Yes to your second question

And it also means we will probably elect a governor in November with about 40% of the statewide vote.

On the bright side, Goodhair just got screwed. She wants to get Rick Perry out of the mansion as badly as we do.

Oh yeah, and the race is about to get real ugly.

[moc]

11. Woohoo! Should have read your post before I posted

Happy day!

:bounce:

[NoPasaran]

6. Hey! Rhett Smith is running against Perry

Not exactly sure what's going through his head though.

[sonias]

15. Actually Perry will have two challengers

Rhett R. Smith (formerly a candidate for CD21 on the Democratic side in 2002).
Star Locke rancher/builder

Sonia

[Czolgosz]

3. Anyone know off hand if voters who voted in no party's primary can sign

both the Mean Grandma's petition and Stinky Kinky's or can they only sign one petition?

I'm glad Texas's Mean Grandma is going to run and give moderate Reoublicans an option at the voting booth in November.

[PDittie]

14. Only one petition per voter.

There will likely be some challenges to both petitioner's signatures.

[tammywammy]

28. That's good news

I know a girl that would stay out of the Republican primaries (she's not registered Republican), so she could sign Kinky's petition. Her thinking is that Kinky would take away votes from the Dems, so she would sign the petition and then vote for Strayhorn in the vote (b/c there's no way Perry would beat Strayhorn).

I gotta meet up with her this weekend and she what she thinks now with Strayhorn as an Independent and also needing the signatures. :):):)

I'm very happy with this news.

[merci_me]

4. What about comptroller?

Anyone know what happens now? Is there any speculation of either party having someone to file for comptroller? I'm really interested in knowing this. Is the deadline at 6pm? If the Repukes don't have someone jumping on this, for the cost of the filing fee the Dems could walk into that office, if we have someone ready to file.

[NoPasaran]

5. Susan Combs (currently Ag Commish) is running

She announced shortly after Carole 4Names began her gubernatorial bid. No Dem so far.

[sonias]

13. We have a Democratic candidate for comptroller

Fred Head has filed to run in the Democratic primary unchallenged.

For a list of all the Democratic Candidates that filed check out the Texas Democratic Party web site
Democratic Candidate Filings

Sonia

[PDittie]

7. So here's the deal:

It's good in some ways for us, particularly for the guy who wins the primary in March, but not so good in others, as the money will be tight, and our guy will be underfunded as usaul.

But I think Bell's campaign blog sums it up nicely:

The race is now going to come down to 3 Republicans and one Democrat. All Chris Bell has to do is get Democrats to vote for a Democrat, and he’ll win. As Burnt Orange Report recently pointed out, One Tough Grandma is One Dedicated Republican, and Kinky Friedman last ran for office as a Republican and is still very much at home with a certain segment of that party, bless their souls. And Rick Perry, he's not going to stop being the High Priest of the Hardliners.

If Chris Bell holds onto the 37% that voted for John Kerry in 2004, and the 40% that voted for Tony Sanchez in 2002, he wins, because a plurality of votes of that approximate percentage will elect the next Governor of Texas.

[crispini]

8. Well, well, well.

This is going to be interesting.

[Lithos]

9. Oh my

This will be very interesting. Makes you wonder if there is going to be some major power maneuvering in the Repukes back rooms to get either Good-hair or Name d'jour to blink so as to not dilute the vote? Will prove EXTREMELY embarrassing (and wonderful) when the Dems walk in.

Even if one of these two were to back out, you got to know whatever price they wrangle will weigh down the Pukes for sometime to come.

L-

[moc]

10. Would this be interpreted as really bad news for Gov Goodhair?

God, I hope so!

Did anyone see the special that KERA did on the health care crisis in Texas? It was about a year ago. I think it was called "Life in the Balance" or something like that. Focused a lot on Parkland and Ben Taub. Very powerful special. Anyway, they interviewed Strayhorn for that and she was very rational, very pragmatic (i.e., she'd rather pay $900 to cover a kid with CHIP than pay $5000 for them when they show up in the E.R.). She was the lone voice of reason among the republicans they interviewed who were all touting the "personal responsibility/everyone needs to go and get their own health insurance" b.s. I'm not saying I'd vote for her, but I'd dearly love to see her kick Perry's ass.

I didn't realize she was Scotty "I can't comment on an ongoing investigation" McLellan's mother! :wow:

[PDittie]

12. It would.

Give Kinky 10%, perhaps 15%, of the November vote total.

Give Chris Bell (or Bob Gammage) somewhere between the 37% Kerry pulled in 2004, and the 40% Tony Sanchez got in 2002.

At mimimum that's 47%, leaving 53% for Perry and Strayhorn to split. If Strayhorn can draw 17%, then a Democrat is elected Governor.

Get generous and give Kinky 13% and Bell/Gammage 40% -- achievable numbers, but probably at the upper end of expectations -- and the margin of defeat for Perry shrivels to 8% (the percentage of Strayhorn votes that keep Goodhair from winning).

I think Carole can conceivably draw 20%, and if Bell/Gammage were to only get 35% and Kinky 11%, Rick Perry still loses with 34%. Kinky will get whatever he gets, as will the Democratic nominee; the precise impact of Strayhorn on Perry's numbers is the unknown variable. The wild card.

God, I hope somebody's assembling a phone bank for polling soon.

[boot@9]

16. that is assuming...

Friedman and Strayhorn can get enough valid signatures to get on the ballot. I think it will be difficult for both to do so. Also expect major repug opposition and challenges.

[Wild Bill]

17. wouldn't there be a runoff?

Wouldn't there be a runoff between the top two candidates if nobody got 50% of the vote?

[Maestro]

18. I agree on your assessment.

If that happens, the rethugs have just split their vote making it easier for Bell or whoever the Dem candidate is. Either way, this race is going to be very ugly. Let Strayhorn and Goodhair fight it out while our guy or gal rises above the fracus.

[HippieCowgirl]

19. Don't count your chickens until they've voted

I know a bunch of D/FW liberals who will vote for Strayhorn over Chris Bell.

[NoPasaran]

21. No one who would vote for Strayhorn over Bell (or Gammage)

Is worthy of being called a "liberal".

[PDittie]

24. or a Democrat. eom

[TexasThoughtCriminal]

22. Just curious

Why are they for Strayhorn, or against Bell?:shrug:

[HippieCowgirl]

25. She's a woman

These are folks who will vote for the woman in any political contest, regardless of her political party.

I'm not saying I agree with that. Just sayin' - there's a contingency of folks who vote for the woman over the Democrat.

[crispini]

26. I agree.

I've heard several people say this.

Of course, this tended to work in our favor in our local races last time. :D

[PDittie]

30. OK. With all due respect, and with no interest

in starting a flame war or even opening a can of worms, isn't that more than a little sexist?

"Abandon your principles, vote your genitals"?

Abandoning one's principles comes pretty easy to Carole, but I can't imagine that she is banking the success of her campaign on a contingency of kindred spirits in any small measure.

FWIW, I think it's safe to say that this voting bloc is vastly outnumbered by the former Louisiana residents now living in Texas who are likely to be newly registered and overwhelmingly Democratic.

[Melissa G]

31. You are making a big assumption that Dem votes can be accurately counted

in this state. A Big Assumption. I think that Sharp had his last race stolen from him. This looks like another race that could easily be manipulated.
Election Reform. In Texas. Now, more than ever.. or none of this matters.

[PDittie]

35. Yes, I am. But that's another topic.

A vital topic certainly, because once my assumption is considered false by enough people ... anarchy.

For the purpose of this discussion we'll remain under the (admittedly tenuous) assumption that we live in a democracy, still.

[Melissa G]

36. I hope not anarchy but concerted effort to reclaim the right of one person

one vote and the rule of law. Plus a whole lot of very satisfying convictions for the corrupt bastards who currently got us in this state!:evilgrin: :kick:

[crispini]

32. Oh YES.

Louisiana residents! We need to make sure they are REGISTERED TO VOTE!!!

[merci_me]

33. But not as many as the men

who will not vote for a woman for anything or that group of women who will vote the way their husbands tell them and those voters are overwhelmingly Perry voters. I think those two groups will FAR outweigh the women who will vote first for a woman, because she's a woman. If that was the case, we'd have long ago won the pro-choice war, children's health care and our sons and daughters wouldn't be dying in Iraq!! But face it, voting based on sex it's no different than those who vote up or down on ethnicity, race, religion, geographic region, how photogenic, etc.

[PDittie]

34. You got it, Mary

But not as many as the men who will not vote for a woman for anything or that group of women who will vote the way their husbands tell them and those voters are overwhelmingly Perry voters.

Exactly.

If that was the case, we'd have long ago won the pro-choice war, children's health care and our sons and daughters wouldn't be dying in Iraq!!

Right on the money again.

But face it, voting based on sex it's no different than those who vote up or down on ethnicity, race, religion, geographic region, how photogenic, etc.

Bingo. That's how morans decide who to vote for.

Three harsh truths in one post, Mary. There needs to be a nice prize for a post so cogent.
:yourock:

[Freddie Stubbs]

37. At the very least

this may cause Republicans to spend time and money on this race, which may detract from others around the country.

[Maestro]

20. Somebody really needs to ask Scottie boy what he thinks

at the next White House briefing. :rofl:

[Freddie Stubbs]

23. This is truly great news

Finally the Democratic party has a chance to do something that it hasn't done in over ten years, win a state-wide office in Texas.

[derby378]

27. Strayhorn made a very stupid mistake

Perry's poll numbers are so low that Strayhorn could take him in the primaries. Now there's no chance - she'll simply fade away.

Nice knowing ya, Carole...

[NoPasaran]

29. May the gods be praised!

I will have lived to see the end of the political career of Ms. Piggy!

Anyone who will tell you what a great mayor of Austin she was was obviously smoking way too much :smoke: back in the day. Carole was a dyed-in-the-wool member of the Party of Concrete. She made sure that her council approved the demolition of the cultural icon, hippie hangout, cozmik cowboy rendezvous Armadillo World Headquarters so the lot could be used for a hotel that was never built... eventually an office building was, which, several boom-bust-bankruptcy cycles later is a city office building. Yes, boys and girls, next time you're at South First and Barton Springs, gaze at One Texas Center for that is Carole Fournames' monument. Fuck her. Fuck her. Fuck her.

[last_texas_dem]

38. I'm not sure

Perry does have low poll numbers, but he is still strongly supported by the right-wing nuts, who make up a sizeable percentage of the Texas population. In fact, the wingnuts likely form the majority of his support, and they seem to turn out much more strongly in Repug primaries than less insane Repugs.

Strayhorn has higher approval ratings than Perry, but not among the Repug base. So I think she may actually have a better shot at getting into the Governor's Mansion (that is, if she collects enough signatures to make it on to the ballot) by running as an Independent than she would have by trying to become the Republican candidate, as I think she likely would have lost that primary since she seems to be disliked by the right-wing base of the party. She may be unlikely to actually prevail in a three- or four-way contest, running as an Independent, but I belive she will at least do more damage to Governor Goodhair this way. (Which, I strongly suspect, doesn't really bother her that much!)

[crispini]

39. Agree

that the hard RW dominates the Republican primary, but I disagree that they are a "sizeable percentage" of the population. I think there are more moderate repubs than there are hard RW repubs, but they are not as active in their party and they are effectively shut out by the lockstep organization of the hard RW. I'm glad that Carol Fournames is giving them a choice, and I think she's going to do some serious damage to Perry.

I was thinking about PDittie's analysis above. It sounds good, but the only problem I see is that I'm just not sure everyone who voted for Kerry will also vote for Bell or Gammage. I know at least a couple of independent-minded Dems who are voting for Kinky. This is the logic they were using: "There's no way the Democrat's going to win in this state, and you know that Goodhair's going to win the primary, which means he's favored win the race, so why not vote for Kinky and give him a chance."

But I think we need to start getting your logic out there, after we figure out who's on the ballot: If it's a four-way split, stick with the Democrat, and the Democrat will win.

I just hope Carole gets on the ballot.

[Vogon_Glory]

40. I Also Agree

I also agree that Carol Fournames would probably lose in the Republican primary. The hard right is far more active in the GOP primaries than are their more moderate factions, and Governor Blow-dry will probably win that in a romp.

On the other hand, once it gets past the primaries, I think that Carol Fournames would be far more popular among the voters. Carol Fournames has at least some more credible pretensions for competence than does Buckaroo Bush's successor, and that would appeal to a lot more people than the hard right's "Do You Luv Jayyyyyy-suz??!!!" approach.

Whatever happens this autumn, I would love to see the Texas hard right forced to chow down on humble pie.

[TexasThoughtCriminal]

41. My big concern

is that neither Kinky nor Strayhorn will garner enough signatures to get on the ballot. I've heard that Texas is among the hardest states for an independent to get on the ballot (does anyone remember if Nader was on our ballot?); the hurdles were made intentionally high. And if independents are restricted to signing only one petition, as PDittie pointed out, that effectively halves your universe of signers. Then we're down to our worst scenario: one repub (Perry):scared: against our unknown Dem. ;(

[crispini]

42. I don't think Nader was on the ballot.

The Kinky supporters I know assure me that "Kinky has enough pledges to sign to get on the ballot, right now." We'll see.

Maybe I'll do some signature soliciting for One Tough Grandma. :evilgrin:

[merci_me]

45. Be sure to get paid for it and

donate the money to her Democratic opponent

[crispini]

47. AwRIGHT!

:evilgrin:

[Texas_Kat]

43. Both Carol and Kinky will pay canvassers to gather signatures

Turnout in Texas primaries is traditionally low. They will both be spending anywhere from $300,00-500,000 apiece to make sure they get valid signatures.

Carol has enough money, Kinky seems to have spent almost as much as he's raised, but...

the safe assumption is that they will both be there.

[sonias]

44. At least one of them will get on ballot for sure

They both are paying for signatures and some people are purposely not going to vote in the primary, just to sign a petition. Not me of course I'm voting.

I did want to point out a very good analysis that Dean Rindy published. Rindy is a campaign consultant who is working for Bob Gammage, but he does good work. This was covered at Burnt Orange Report yesterday too

http://www.gammageforgovernor.com/rindy_analysisTXGov06.htm
Strayhorn Creates Immense Opportunity for Democrats
(snip)
Strayhorn's Impossible Math

Here's the math. For Strayhorn to reach the high 30's in total statewide vote, she has to win almost HALF of all the voters who voted for Kerry and Sanchez (That gets her to about 19-20 percent of the total vote). Then, she also needs to pull nearly ONE-THIRD of the voters who chose Bush and Perry (which would get her up to 38-40% of the total vote). THERE IS NO WAY THAT CAN HAPPEN. There is no way Strayhorn is going to win half of all Democratic voters while winning one-third of all Republicans.

If there is any kind of credible Democrat in the race, Strayhorn will get no minority votes, no White liberals (as in Houston and Travis County), and no Democratic loyalists. The Party has been purified down to its base. The people who might defect already did so some time ago. Strayhorn's best potential targets are moderate conservative, Republican-voting "independents" and moderate Republicans who can't stomach Rick Perry. These are the people who gave Perot 22% in 1992. They are not enough.

If somebody starts talking about the large share of self declared "Independents," in our electorate, (as much as 24% in the 2004 exit polls) tell them to sit down and catch their breath. Any pollster will tell you that most self-identified "independents" are actually partisan and are usually inclined Republican or Democratic. Less than 10% of Texas voters, if that, are truly "independent." So the best measure of voter potential is to actually look at the way the total vote for party candidates has gone in recent elections.

Strayhorn's poll is an artificial universe, frozen in time, which assumes a zombie-like quietude from the Democrats and an ineffective attack campaign from Perry. Neither of those assumptions will hold true.
(/snip)

It's an interesting read.
Sonia

[crispini]

48. GREAT analysis.

I like this bit:

Thirty-eight percent is a good, conservative indicator of the Democratic Base vote. Clinton won 38%. Kerry got 38.2% in 2004, and Gore got 38% in 2000. Down-ballot Democrats with no money finish in that neighborhood or a little below in statewide races.

In non-presidential years Democrats have done BETTER.

Perry won 58% in 2002, while Sanchez got 40%. In 2002 Sharp got 46% for Lt. Gov; Ron Kirk got 43.6% for U.S. Senate. Other down-ballot Democrats in 2002—unknown and unfinanced--- came in below 40. Obviously circumstances, previous name I.D., or TV advertising can lift a Democrat above the party’s base numbers.

[Czolgosz]

46. WE NEED TO BEGIN GATHERING KINKY'S RIGHT-WING VIEWS IN ONE PLACE TO STOP

the loss of progressive votes that might otherwise might go to Gammage/Bell. I'm seeing Kinky posters in progressive/Green Party venues. I understand why some progressive voters have become disenchanted with the party and why Bell, for example, might not be a progressive voter's dream candidate, but HAVE WE LEARNED NOTHING FROM 2000?

Stinky Kinky is either a self-promotion joke or a fella with a crazy incoherent political philosophy (I cannot tell, but he has views on different issues that range from authoritarian to libertarian and from progressive to reactionary). When the worst of his views are better known, he ought to lose the progressives from his base so LET'S MAKE SURE THAT HAPPENS BEFORE HE GETS ON THE BALLOT!

STOP KINKY BEFORE HE NADERS US TO DEATH!

[crispini]

49. Why don't you start that project?

And start a new thread?

I know at least two good Democratic activists who are actively working for Kinky right now. Sure wish we could get them back. :(

[Czolgosz]

50. Here's a hint of what Texas government would look like under Stinky Kinky

Prayer in public schools (what if I prefer to handle my children's religious up bringing without Kinky's help?).

Replacement of experience workers with young people to run the state "because young people are less corrupt" (sounds like a guy who's never been to meeting of either the Young Republicans or the Experience Corps).

[Czolgosz]

51. More Kinky craziness:

Kinky would address illegal immigration issues by outsourcing our border control to five Mexican generals who would each cover a fifth of the Texas-Mexico border and would be paid a $1,000,000 a year less $5,000 for each illegal immigrant who crossed into Texas. Kinky calls this "cowboy logic."

On solving the education funding crisis, Kinky believes the whole problem could be fixed by privatizing for physical education aspects of our public education system. This idea, which is not supported by a lick of research, is a peculiar choice for a state facing an epidemic of childhood obesity.

Among a very limited number of top legislative priorities, Kinky advocates (1) legalizing gambling, (2) "abolishing political correctness," and (3) outlawing the de-clawing of cats. These are not Texas's biggest problems (to say the least), and they would not be the top priorities of a person who genuinely sought to fix our troubled state.

STOP KINKY BEFORE WE GET NADERED AGAIN!