Survey USA says we have some work to do in the governor race:

[Czolgosz]

15% Bell (D)
16% Friedman (I)
39% Perry (R)
25% Strayhorn (I)
3% Other
3% Undecided

Analysis: ... Perry leads among Whites, Hispanics, Republicans and conservatives. Strayhorn leads among moderates. Friedman leads among independents. Bell leads among Blacks, Democrats and liberals. With 6 1/2 months to go until the 11/7/06 election, and no candidate polling over 40%, the race must be regarded as wide open. If one of the Independents, Strayhorn or Friedman, cannot maintain support through a long campaign, then Bell or the other Independent may pick up enough votes to threaten Perry.

<http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportEmail.aspx?g=b9491b59-69d3-49f0-9a58-4944d8f634c9>

[muse]

1. I sent Bell a nice big check during the first quarter

and I'll do the same this quarter. He needs it to run an effective campaign.

It doesn't help that organizations like the Texas State Teachers Association (TSTA) who have traditionally backed Democratic candidates (and for GOOD reason, Democrats have always delivered to teachers) have endorsed Strayhorn.

It also doesn't help that some of the big time Democratic donors are giving their dollars to Strayhorn.

I wish someone could explain to me what the Strayhorn love is all about. Because I. Just. Don't. Get. It. And, I'm not in a good mood about it.

[Freddie Stubbs]

2. I think that some see Strayhorn as the only one who can beat Perry

Democratic candidates haven't had a very good track record in TX state-wide elections in the past ten years. In fact, no Democrat has won state-wide since 1994.

[muse]

3. Your explanation makes sense, but

I don't like it. I don't think it's a winnable strategy. She's not going to win, so we are losers again. And, even if she was capable of winning, we are losers. She's not a Democrat and we wouldn't be happy with her leadership as governor. I guess I still don't fundamentally understand why all Democrats in our state don't want to support our Democratic nominee. I suppose part two of your answer might be that some Democrats think that Strayhorn can pull Republican votes away from Perry? But, I seriously doubt that. I think that's why she's polling so low. Probably only independents and straying Democrats are polling for her right now.

[Freddie Stubbs]

6. Sometimes, there is no winnable strategy

Not all Democrats consistantly support the Democratic nominee. Just as not all Republicans consistantly support the Repulican nominee. The problem is that in Texas, there are simply a lot more Republicans than there are Democrats.

[Czolgosz]

4. Our Democrat-leaning base is about 36% (Sanchez was weak and got 40%)

Rick Perry's hardest core Republican base is about 36% (he's polled as low as 36% in election polling and his approval rating has dipped to 38% a few times).

If Perry performs as poorly as expected by many in the election, which seems likely in light of his poor overall job performance and the fact that his revenue raising and school under-financing schemes are likely to alienate some of those who might otherwise support him without winning him many votes, his number could easily be as low as 36% (or even lower in the event of some unforeseen event diminishing his approval rating or if c4n3p makes the ballot and pulls an unexpectedly large number of hard core Republicans, which is possible because c4n3p polls very well among Republican-leaning women and Perry has previously done surprisingly well among such Republican-leaning women which is a constituency which prioritizes school financing as an issue and so may be predisposed to blame Perry for his school financing fiasco).

Bell will certainly improve on Gary Mauro's 31% but he probably cannot improve upon Sanchez's 40% in a three- or four-way race (he'd get some anti-incumbent votes in a two-way race which might lift him about 40% but I don't think it would lift him over 50% in a two-way race). If we assume that Bell starts off with 90% of Sanchez's vote (allowing for a 10% net loss due to the fact that there will likely be Kinky or c4n3p or both on the ballot), he's at 36%.

In a two-way race, with Perry and Bell with each starting at a 36% base (which is a worst-case scenario for Perry and a middle-of-the-range case scenario for Bell), the majority of the remaining 28% is Republican-leaning independents and ticket-splitting weak Republicans. Barring some unforeseen calamity, Perry likely wins a majority of this remaining 28% in a two-way race.

In a three-way race with c4n3p, she has strong appeal among that moderate Republican-leaning 28% (and her inclusion in the race may be a necessary part of the worst-case scenario to get Perry's base from about 38% to 36%). If Bell can (1) position himself as the number one challenger to Perry and (2) hold his Democratic base from shifting to c4n3p, we could see an election like this:

Bell - 37%
Perry - 36%
c4n3p - 27%

(Actually, the smaller third-party candidates -- Green, Libertarian, etc. -- will probably garner about 2% so these percentages are with respect to the 98% of the vote that is not spent on a minor third parties. All the other projections are also discussing the break down of the 98% of the non-minor-third-party vote, and where I refer to a two-, three-, or four-way races, I am not counting these minor third parties).

In a three-way race with Kinky, it's hard to predict the outcome because he is currently drawing his strongest support from progressive voters, but if Kinky gets on the ballot, those progressive voters will presumably eventually learn that Kinky is not progressive on issues other than bio-diesel and animal rights (plus the death penalty and reproductive rights if you believe his recent flip-flops on these two issues and disregard his express statements on his website that say Kinky is "not pro-choice" and "not anti-death penalty"). Unless this education-of-progressive-voters process is accomplished, Kinky will Nader Bell's candidacy and assure Perry's reelection in a three-way race. If the education process is successful, it will be difficult to identify who will remain in support of Kinky (other than those who never learn what ridiculous positions he advocates or don't care what positions he advocates because their vote is a protest vote).

In a four-way race with c4n3p and Kinky, it's again hard to predict because it is unclear whether progressive voters will remain predisposed to vote for an "independent" candidate who previously ran for office as a Republican and who voted for Bush/Cheney in 2004 and who lied about voting for progressive candidates in the past and who proposes (1) contradictory positions on important progressive issues, (2) vague criticisms without detailed alternative solutions on other important issues, (3) a crazy far-right-wing immigration policy, and (4) a partially privatized education system that would install school prayer and (some unidentified religion's version of) the Ten Commandments into the public school classrooms.

It's hard for me to see Perry going more than 2% or 3% below 36% even in a four-way race, and if that's where Perry's ultimate floor lies, it's difficult to divide the nearly two thirds of the anti-Perry vote by three in a way that any of the Perry-alternatives beat Perry. For example, assume that Perry can be diminished to 34% in a four-way race and the anti-Perry vote is split evenly (which it won't be, but assume it will be for the purposes of this hypothetical):

Perry - 34%
Bell - 22%
c4n3p - 22%
Kinky - 22%

To beat Perry even with Perry drawing only 34% of the vote, one of the three anti-Perry candidates will need to get at least 12% better than a mere third of the anti-Perry vote, and this 12% would have to come from the other two anti-Perry candidates. Thus, for any of the anti-Perry candidates to win, at least one -- if not two -- of the anti-Perry candidates has to crater so that candidate's support can coalesce around another anti-Perry candidate (and if no anti-Perry candidate's candidacy craters, Perry wins because the anti-Perry vote cannot be split three ways and still be sufficiently large for one of those anti-Perry candidates to beat the Perry vote). Because Bell is the candidate of the Democratic party, neither Kinky nor c4n3p is likely to drive life-long Democrats away from his candidacy so there is no likely scenario where Bell is the candidate who craters sufficiently to enable either of the other anti-Perry candidates to beat Perry. If c4n3p's candidacy is the one that craters, a number of her supporters are ticket-splitting Republicans who may likely support Perry if c4n3p is not a viable option so there is no likely scenario where c4n3p's candidacy is the one that craters in a manner that allows one of the other anti-Perry candidates to win.

The only conclusion is that Kinky's candidacy must crater or Perry will be re-elected. I see no other likely alternative.

[NoPasaran]

5. Perry = Strayhorn = Friedman

There are three rethugs in the governor's race and I say to hell with them.

[Freddie Stubbs]

7. So combined the GOPers are polling at 80% and the Democratic

candidate is is at 15%? I find that hard to believe, even for Texas.

[NoPasaran]

8. This is one poll among several

Most others currently show Perry at around 40% and the three challengers each close to twenty. I wish Bell well and I have contributed to his campaign but the sad fact is that he just doesn't seem to be doing much that will either inspire some passion or inspire donors to turn on the money spigot. Frankly, I think we're going to get our asses kicked this November.

[Czolgosz]

9. At this stage in the election, the poll is mainly name id and no one knows

Bell yet.

By this summer, we'll know who's on and who's off the ballot.

By the end of the summer, Bell's campaign will pick up steam, and his name identification will begin to rise at a faster rate.

By the fall, the school finance bill fiasco will be in full bloom. There are only three possible outcomes: (1) Perry will have failed to achieve anything and there will be further court action which will reflect poorly on Perry or (2) Perry will have passed a shitty school financing bill and there will be blow-back from the underfunded schools and from the people who are paying a new tax (by the way, look for many LLP to switch to general partnerships and many PC to switch to sole proprietorships which will mean the the revenue projections from the franchise tax will be WAY OFF TARGET) or (3) Perry will fairly and adequately fund the schools and no one will mind having to pay the extra taxes (just kidding, there are only two possible outcomes, because Perry couldn't accomplish a positive outcome even if he was Ann Richards).

Also, we're in for a worrisome hurricane season, and Perry has not done anything to fix the problem where people in East Texas have bought both wind and water storm coverage and still they are not getting their claims paid because the two insurance companies are fighting between themselves over which coverage is responsible -- imagine this problem across the Texas Gulf Coast.

By the late fall, if we have a four-way race, someone (probably Bell but maybe c4n3p) will emerge as the top anti-Perry candidate and someone (probably Kinky) will emerge as the fourth-place also ran, and support for the fourth place also ran will migrate to the top anti-Perry candidate.

Unless the three Perry-alternatives somehow all manage to cancel each other out by hovering in the polls at the high teens or low-to-mid twenties as percentages of support, there ought to be an interesting race. Perry will be the favorite and someone, most likely Bell, will be his top challenger. Everyone will know Bell's name by then, and he'll be polling in the high thirties come election time (unless Kinky Naders him) and whether winning 36%, 37%, or 38% will be enough to win depends on how c4n3p and Perry divide the remainder of the vote.

[muse]

10. The internals from the Survey USA poll

Republicans
Perry (65%)
Strayhorn (20%)
Friedman (10%)
Bell (2%)

Democrats
Bell (32%)
Strayhorn (30%)
Perry (16%)
Freidman (15%)

Independent
Friedman (32%)
Strayhorn (26%)
Perry (25%)
Bell (10%)

Well, it looks to me like plenty of Democrats are supporting Strayhorn. I don't like it.