New Poll Has Cautionary Details for Ron Paul (R,Tx)

[rusty_parts2001]

Rancher Shane Sklar (D), who is running against Rep. Ron Paul (R) in the 14th District, released a poll Monday showing that only 33 percent of the district’s voters would definitely vote to reelect the eight-term Congressman. Forty-eight percent of those surveyed preferred someone new.

But if the election were held today, voters would still select Paul over Sklar by a margin of 57 percent to 33 percent. Plus, those 48 percent who said they prefer someone new do not include respondents who may want someone new but are leaning in Paul’s direction.

Still, the poll had cautionary details for Paul, who was the 1988 Libertarian nominee for president. Even though his district gave President Bush two-thirds of the vote in 2004, Bush’s negative job approval ratings (51 percent) outpolled his positives (48 percent) in the Sklar poll.

The poll of 500 likely general election voters, conducted April 23-27 b y FrederickPolls of Arlington, VA has a 4 percent margin of error.

Democrats believe Sklar has the kind of profile a Democrat needs to compete in the 14th district, but whether he is a viable contender remains to be seen. Through March 31, Sklar had $57,000 in the campaign account; Paul had $330,000.

[flamin lib]

1. Ron Paul is a Libertarian in Republican clothing.

My Mother in Law (RIP) voted for him and I get mailings even though I live in the DFW area. He ran on the Libertarian ticket for years.

I donate a dollar or two the the Republican party every year so I get on all the mailing lists. I take all the postage paid envelopes and send them pizza cupons, NARL information and occasionally a Democratic leaflet. Anything to use up the prepaid postage . . .

[Freddie Stubbs]

2. The problem is that his district is overwealingly Republican

There were very similar numbers for Paul and Loy Sneary back in 1998 (and Sneary had raised a lot more money at this point in the game then). Paul has a national following and has always been able to outraise his opponents, which will enable him to define both himself and Mr. Sklar through paid media.

[Lisa0825]

3. Even Galveston votes for Ron Paul,

and it's generally been Democratic. While I disagree with Ron Paul much of the time, I appreciate the way he stands up to the Republicans and to Bush, and he actually is very responsive when you contact him about anything. I emailed him about the port deal, and he replied very quickly with strong opposition to it. I think any dem running against him will have a tough time because people cross party lines for him.