Battle for Texas Latino vote challenges conventional wisdom

[sonias]

AAS 2/20/08
Battle for Texas Latino vote challenges conventional wisdom
Some analysts say Clinton is the front-runner, but a new report shows Obama has erased her advantage among Latinos.

Political strategists trying to size up the race between Sens. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are talking a lot about former Dallas Mayor Ron Kirk these days.

(snip)
In fact, Kirk beat a Hispanic candidate in the primary with strong support among Latinos statewide.

(snip)
Hispanics represent about 20 percent — 2.6 million — of Texas' registered voters, and after flirting with the Republican Party during the Bush years, they are back in the Democrats' fold, according to a Pew Hispanic Center national survey in December.

Analysts say Hispanics make up about 35 percent to 40 percent of Democratic primary voters but might account for considerably more on March 4 if Texas mirrors the record turnouts in other states.

Si se puede! Obamanos Tejas!

Sonia

[Yanez Houston Jordan]

1. Some pundits grossly overestimate the affect of a candidate's race upon Latino voters.

I think it is true that Texas Latino voters show a slightly different profile in who they support as compared to other Democratic voter demographic segments, but the idea that Texas Latino voters are casting their ballots based more on the race of the candidate is an offensive myth that needs to be busted.

Ron Kirk's support from Latino voters in his 2002 primary run-off victory over Victor Morales is just one example that busts the myth of overwhelming Latino bias in favor Latino candidates.

There are even better examples from 2004. Look back to the Democratic primaries for the newly gerrymandered congressional districts in 2004. In CD 25 Lloyd Doggett easily beat Leticia Hinojosa among Latino voters, in CD22 Richard Morrison handily beat Erik Saenz among Latino voters, and in CD 23 Joe Sullivan beat Virgil Yanta among Latino voters.

The divide between Hillary and Obama among my Latino friends is about 50%-50% -- just the same as the divide among non-Latino friends. Among all of my Latino friends who support Hillary, none mention race as an issue and the consensus reason for supporting Hillary which I hear again and again is loyalty to the Clintons because they feel Bill was a good president and a good Democrat who promoted their Democratic values. Race never seems to enter the picture.

The next time you hear some blowhard like Chris Matthews trying desperately to spin the Texas primary into a race war between Hillary's Latino supporters versus Obama's black supporters, just turn the TV off.

[sonias]

2. I agree

We are not monolithic voters. We're all over the place.

Heck that Emmitt Smith endorsement is more likely to sway my brothers in the Valley to Obama than anything else.

But just like the attention being paid to Texas voters, I like the attention being paid to Latinos.

I hate tweety anyway. (Matthews)

Sonia

[Tommy Jefferson]

3. Latinos Raced-Based Voting

"...the idea that Texas Latino voters are casting their ballots based more on the race of the candidate is an offensive myth that needs to be busted."

Can you point me to some voting data to help bust this myth?

[sonias]

4. Polling data - Gallup Poll

Gallup 2/19/08
Obama Gaining Among Middle-Aged, Women, Hispanics
Hispanics

Many credited Clinton's strong appeal to Hispanics for helping her win the important Feb. 5 California primary, and her support among this key group gives the campaign hope for a comeback victory in the March 4 Texas primary. But the tracking data suggest her support advantage among Hispanics may be eroding, at least on a national level. In the Feb. 5-9 data, Clinton led Obama by nearly 2-to-1, 63%-32%, among Hispanic Democratic voters. In the most recent polling, the two are essentially tied among this constituency, with 50% preferring Obama and 46% Clinton.

Huffington Post blog 2/6/08
Clinton's Latino Advantage Decreases, Obama Surges as Latinos Vote Beyond Black and White

Preliminary results of the most intense primary in recent memory indicate that predictions of a monolithic Latino "firewall" for Clinton have fallen short. The candidates split key Latino states in different parts of the country. Clinton won states like New York and New Jersey while Obama won states like Colorado and Illinois. Exit poll results also demolished widely-held notions that Latinos are unwilling to support a black candidate. Obama succeeded in dropping Clinton's Latino advantage from 4-1 (68% to 17% according to a CNN poll conducted last week) to 3-2 last night. And in almost every Latino-heavy state that voted Super Tuesday, Obama received more than the 26 percent of the Latino vote he got in Nevada just 2 weeks ago.

Analysis of Latino voting patterns indicates that Latinos did not, as predicted, march monolithically into the voting booths to vote racially black or white. Instead, the Latino vote segmented along other vectors, the most interesting of which is the regional vector.

Hope that helps.

Sonia