Dallas county predicted turnout

[crispini]

Or, fun with the Dalcoelections website.

In 2000 we had approximately 617,000 (and some change) voters in the Presidential election.

Conventional wisdom says that about 30% of the electorate votes early where they can. I don't remember where I read this, I'm sure it was somewhere on here.

The turnout for the first two days in Dallas County, plus absentee ballots, is at 64,656. Interestingly, the total went UP from Monday to Tuesday by 2,000 votes.

Assumming that the turnout stays constant at an average of 20,000 voters/day for the 12 days of early voting (which it won't, ok, but it's a guess), this nets us 240,000 voters.

Assuming that the 30% rule holds true, that would mean approximately an 800,000 person turnout, total, for Dallas County.

The only thing I can't figure out is how many voters are registered right now. As of 2000 there were 1,248,325 registered, but I know some were dropped off the rolls due to inactivity after that, and I know there were a LOT registered right up to the last minute. Assuming that the registration stays approximately the same as 2000, what with the drops and the adds, that's approximately a 64% voter turn out. 2000's turnout was 49%, so that's a big increase!



I don't know why I just figured all that out. I suppose because all the information was there and it looked interesting. Apparently, I have no life. Thank you, thank you very much. :D

[crispini]

1. Hey! My precinct!

In 2000 we had a whopping 293 voters turn out for a 28% rate. Pukey I know.

We have ALREADY gotten 203 voters out in the FIRST TWO DAYS OF ABSENTEE VOTING!

And we are SO BLUE in my neighborhood, you would not believe.

[sonias]

2. Very good news crispini

I do think people are voting for change. We are having a huge turnout here in Travis as well.

Good luck to us all on taking this state and our country back. We have the power!

Sonia

[derby378]

3. That is very good news indeed, but...

If you hear of any problems or irregularities with the early voting machines in Dallas, please keep us updated.

[crispini]

4. That's part of the reason why I voted early.

To get a gander at the EV machines. Bear in mind we have used these machines for more than one election, we were using them in 2002 as well, and it all looked pretty normal to me.

And I have to admit, I got great satisfaction from logging on to the Dalcoelections site this morning and finding the verification that I had voted.

[crispini]

5. We did another 20,000 yesterday in EV's.

But the revised spreadsheet isn't up yet, so no details on specific precincts. I just got off the phone with them. I WANT MY PRECINCT, dammit!

[freesqueeze]

6. I Got Calls From Two Different Friends

Both asking how to get registered. It was too late for both but I was encouraged that these two "lagging-indicators" showed any interest at all.

Going to sit back now for a few seconds and dream of how I will feel if Bush actually loses Texas.

mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

[crispini]

7. Dallas Absentee and EV's through Thursday:

Up to 83,235.

We are well on schedule for my predicted 65% turnout and may in fact surpass it, considering that we've done approx. 20,000 voters per day, and it SHOULD go up over the weekend, and my model was guessing 20,000 voters per day as an average across all 12 days.

AND, in EVEN better news, in just FOUR DAYS my precinct (312 voters) has already surpassed our TOTAL 2000 turnout (about 270). Wooooooooooooooo!