Bexar County (San Antonio) Poll: Kerry 40% Bush 45% Nader 3%

[Gman]

and 12 percent undecided, according to a UTSA study (probably Richard Gambetta). Most of the undecideds are hispanic female who, according the report, are unlikely to vote. This according to a news report I heard on KTSA 550 AM at the 2:00 news break. I looked for a report on mysa.com and at utsa.edu but found nothing.

Looking back on the Secretary of State website at the 2000 election, the final count for Bexar county was Gore 45% Bush 52% and Nader 2%. If the UTSA poll is considered accurate (I don't know the margin of error or internals) Bush is 7% behind his 2000 final Bexar County tally. If true that most of the undecideds are hispanic female, and they can be brought out to vote Bexar County is very much in play this year. Regardless of whether or not Bush takes Bexar County, this is fantastic news for the down ballot candidates and especially so for the close State Representative races like Liebowitz-Mercer.

I'm trying to get a hold of Gambetta out at UTSA for the details.

Could be the first time we take Bexar County for the Democratic Presidential nominee in many, many years.

p.s. My prediction for Texas this year is still Bush takes 52% +/- 1%. Bush took Texas in 2000 59% to Gore's 38%.

[Nicholas_J]

1. Interesting resullts

A number of articles out of Texas regarding early voting are hinting at things going well for Democrats in Texas

[napi21]

2. I lived in Bexar Cty for 6 years.

The Pubs were mostly old native born and very discrimatory Texans. The hispanics have been in the majority in Bexar for quite a while, and I suspect it is more so since I moved in 1998.

I think lots of people in Tx have found out what shrub did to Tx while he was Gov. and are very unhappy. His performance in the WH isn't any better!

[Gman]

3. Actually, the influx of people from out of state

into San Antonio has largely been professionals that tend to actually be conservative and has tended to negate any increase in Hispanic voting. Unfortunately though, the Hispanic community does not turn out in anywhere near the numbers we should be seeing. If they did, Bexar County would still be largely Democrat.

[NoPasaran]

4. I wonder why they've got Nadir in the poll

It's not like he's on the ballot.

[Gman]

5. Because Nader was included in the poll

according to the report.

[fudge stripe cookays]

6. I think that

the military bases there comprise a lot of that conservative vote.

I knew so many friends in high school whose dads were muckity-mucks at Randolph or Fort Sam.

It wouldn't surprise me. We all know that colonels and generals vote differently than grunts.

FSC