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In the spirit of the Kos Dozen and the Dean Dozen, I identified 13 Assembly seats that should be given prime attention in 2006. Just like the Dean Dozen, some are razor-thin margins, and some are long-shots but need to be contested (corrupt, extreme right-wing, etc.) I focused on Republican-held seats only, no vulnerable Democratic incumbents, although Tom Nelson (5th District) and Gary Sherman (74th District) would fit the bill in that category.
I imagine many of you will agree with this list, except of course that your own GOPer (if you have one) should be on it as well. Probably no huge surprises, but perhaps I have crunched the numbers in a helpful way that you hadn't done yet.
District 2: Frank Lasee, R-Bellevue- I included him mainly because he co-sponsored the bill to bring back the death penalty, and that ticked me off. He was unopposed in 2004 and won by 26 points in 2002. Category: Long shot.
District 21: Mark Honadel, R-South Milwaukee- In 2002, Jeff Plale won this seat by 30 points. Then he ran unopposed for Richard Grobschmidt's Senate seat in a 2003 special election. So they had to have the special election for the Assembly seat, and Republican Honadel won by 20 points. In 2004 he was unopposed. What happened here? I'm thinking this is winnable in 2006. Category: Underdog, but doable.
District 42: J. A. Hines, R-Oxford- In 2001, Hines won a special election against Tim Henney by 12 points. In 2002, he ran unopposed, but in 2004 Henney gave it another shot, and narrowed the deficit to 4 points. I thought that this was one of the most Republican areas of the state, but maybe not. Category: Razor-thin.
District 47: Eugene Hahn, R-Cambria- In 2002, Meagan Yost lost to Hahn by 14 percentage points. In 2004, she narrowed that to just 4 points. This area seems to be trending blue pretty fast, and it's in the Madison area, so there may be Democrats moving from Madison to the suburbs. Category: Razor-thin.
District 54: Gregg Underheim, R-Oshkosh- In 2002, Underheim was unopposed. In 2004, he won by only 8 points in the 2-party vote. But even that is deceiving, as the combined totals for Democrat Gordon Hintz and Green Tony Palmeiri added up to a majority. There were no major scandals with Underheim, as far as I know, and he is a 17-year incumbent. Yet we almost pulled this off. Category: Razor-thin.
District 55: Dean Kaufert, R-Neenah. He cosponsored the bill with Lasee to bring back the death penalty. He was unopposed in 2002 and 2004- let's at least make him work for the seat. Category: Long shot.
District 80: Brett Davis, R-Oregon. He won Mike Powers's open seat by just 2 points of the two party vote. (Powers had previously won in 2002 by 22 points.) But again, that is deceiving, as the combined totals for Democrat Gof Thomson and Independent Patrick O'Brien added up to a majority. A 527 group ran some very negative, and as even I can attest to, obnoxious attack ads against Davis, calling him a "right-wing zombie." Maybe he is, but those ads backfired, as many non-Republicans thought Thomson paid for those ads, and they went over to O'Brien instead of voting for Thomson, which swung the election to Davis. Even if just half of those O'Brien voters had voted for Thomson, the election would have been an exact tie, and then we would have gotten to see what would happen in the case of an exact tie in Wisconsin. Category: Razor-thin.
District 84: Mark Gundrum, R-New Berlin. I'm pretty sure he was a sponsor of the Gay Marriage Amendment, which by the way even outlaws civil unions. He also made inflammatory comments (on the floor of the Assembly?) about gays and lesbians. He was unopposed in both 2002 and 2004. Let's make him work for the seat. Category: Long shot.
District 89: John Gard, R-"Sun Prairie." Enough said. The City of Sun Prairie already has had damn fine representatives in Tom and now Gary Hebl. John, take your wingnut self back up to the only city in Wisconsin that already uses touch screens and leave Sun Prairie, Madison, and the state of Wisconsin alone. Maybe Don Peterlin can be convinced to run again. Ironically, a Peterlin-Gard matchup might even be more winnable for Peterlin than if he was running against a more moderate candidate, as the area has been pretty conservative but might be getting sick of Gard's antics. Now they just need a credible alternative. Category: Underdog, but surprisingly doable.
District 90: Karl Van Roy, R-Green Bay. This seat was won by 6 points in 2002 and down to 4 in 2004. Let's see if we can find a candidate in the Tom Nelson mold to take this seat back for the Dems. Category: Razor-thin.
District 93: Robin Kreibich, R-Eau Claire. Kreibich was unopposed in 2002 but only won by 4 points in 2004. He's a 12-year incumbent, and if you can even come close against those guys you must be doing something right. Category: Razor-thin.
District 94: Mike Huebsch, R-West Salem. Nothing particulary offensive about him that I know of, except that he's the GOP majority leader who should be tied down in his own district. A 20-point win for Huebsch in 2002, and a 16-point win in 2004, both against Democrat Vicki Burke. Maybe some new blood could make him work a little harder yet. Category: Long shot.
District 98: Scott Jensen, R-Brookfield. One of the most notoriously corrupt members of the Assembly, yet he runs unopposed in 2002 and 2004. In my opinion, this is simply unacceptable. We may not win but should at least put up a fight. Category: Long shot.
On Saturday (or earlier, if I can,) I will do a Badger State "Great Eight" for the state Senate. You can probably guess most of the people that will be on it, but just to get the info all in one place especially for any new people or out-of-staters who care.
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