If the polls are indeed right.....

[ClusterFreak]

....then after January 23rd Canadians will be longing for the days of arrogant, crooked, pocket-lining Liberals and their so-called "culture of entitlement". It will seem like a distant pleasant memory compared to what we're in for with a Stephen Harper government, especially if he DOES get a majority. Harper will make Brian Mulroney look like a zealous anti-American who's distaste of all things red, white and blue is exceeded only by the likes of Farley Mowat!! The truth of the matter is ALL parties in power, when they govern long enough, govern with an arrogant and sometimes corrupted swagger. Balance that with their policies and their record, and make your decision. Harper and his gang have run a masterful "Liberal-lite" campaign, and when they take power ('when' does seem to be the word to use) just watch them as they take a hard right turn. Hard right if it's a majority anyway. And watch them go into Revoke-A-Palooza mode. Watch them undo Kyoto, the weaponization of space, same sex marriage, the Liberal child care deal with the provinces, the gun registry, and on and on and on.

I pray for a Conservative minority. I think the Martin Liberals need a serious bitchslap for fucking up this campaign soooo royally, and we need a fresh set of faces and ideas to represent the Canadian small "l" liberal mainstream. The same one which sent the Liberals to govern in Ottawa for the last 12 and a half years. The Liberal philosophy, NOT the Conservative one, is the philosphy which MOST Canadians identify with. Unfortunately, complacent, arrogant and incompetent people at the highest levels of the Liberal power structure, have pissed away the sacred trust of the Canadian people.

[Mother Jones]

1. I agree with everything you've said

Except that a MacKay minority is alot more palatable than Harper.

He wouldn't pander to the lunatic fringe.

[Telly Savalas]

2. Seems to me the inference being made from the polls is bullshit.

As I posted in another thread, there are 75 ridings in Quebec and 21 in Toronto. Harper will be lucky to win even a couple of these. This means he needs to win about 70% of the ridings in the rest of the country to get a majority government. Is this really feasible? Have any of the pundits predicting a Conservative majority actually made a list of ridings where they're gonna win their seats?

[V. Kid]

3. Yeah that's true...

...the BC polls are all over the place because the sample sizes are small. They're just regional portions of national polls. So I'm not convinced the Cons are really at 40% out here when they were at 20% only a few months ago. Besides, we're relativley socially liberal. Highest support for (same sex) marriage outside of Quebec, same with opposing Canada getting into Iraq. That said supposing they are there's no reason the NDP would go down from the last election, and Liberal rock bottom would probably be say 20-25%-ish. So let's say 40% Cons anyways, 30% NDP, 22% Lib, 8% Green/Others. That will mean the Cons get favourable splits. That at most would mean 25 seats for the Cons in BC, all 28 in Alberta possibly, unlikely outside shot at all 14 in Saskatchewan, at best for the Cons 7 in Man so that would mean 74 in the West and North. They won't win anything in the North. At best they'll win 3 or 4 seats in Quebec if they're at 20-25% (Pontiac, Louis-St.Laurent, Beauce and Portneuf-Jacques-Cartier maybe). And then about 14 at best in the Maratimes if the Liberals collapse, considering that that area has been Liberal country in the last little while. So that's 94 seats. They'd have to win another 61 in Ontario. As you say about 28 that are in 905/416 that are out of of reach for them, the Northern seats that's another 8, both Windsor, three in Hamilton, and about 2 in Ottawa. So realistically it'd be really tough, but I suppose they could get it if everything works out for them. But then again I doubt this, because it completely ignores local factors, the strech...will the Cons hold? Even if the "throw the bums out" sentiment is high, people might get a closer look at the Cons, see the Stench and then either hold their nose for the Liberals, or go to the NDP or even Greens. I just doubt it would happen.

[glarius]

4. If it is going to be Conservative gov't, I pray for a minority too because

of the damage Harper and his buddies would do with a majority...Just listening to him, as he gets more and more confident and full of himself, it comes across to me that he has the intention of remaking Canada....He's not just talking about some of the programs he would bring in, but is referring to already established things he would open up and change or cancel....He's really a scary bastard....

[Posteritatis]

5. I'm rather annoyed at the younger voters right now

I'm kind of curious as to how much of the polling situation is a result of three fucking quarters of the 18-25 age group actively refusing to vote.

And of course, the idiots will continue to be smug about it afterwards, as though getting the government they didn't want and didn't act for is proof that their nonexistent vote didn't matter.

[V. Kid]

6. You know, it's wierd...

...I'm 21, and I'm voting, and so are all of my friends. I've asked them. And yet, I always here this. I wouldn't be suprised if it's true, but I've mostly heard about "the pointlessness" of voting from middle aged people.

[Posteritatis]

7. It might depend on the region

Where are you? Nova Scotia's been scrabbling at the sand at the edge of the Antlion Pit of Despair for some time now, so that might have something to do with it.

I kinda flit between two groups of friends here; one of them are pretty fanatic about voting, to the point of municipal byelections and stuff, and the others boast at length about how they never ever vote. I'm getting increasingly pissed at the latter; if my riding goes Conservatives (for the first time in decades), it'll be the fault of people like them. %P

But yeah; nationwide the voter turnout rate in the 18-25 group is something like 20-25%. Even the States can at least boast something around half.

[V. Kid]

8. Vancouver, I don't know if that's it or not...

...but I think the education system would do well to have some sort of a required civics class in high school. That talks about the importance of civic participation, in a non-partisan way.