Conservatives support surges in Quebec: poll

[CHIMO]

OTTAWA — Conservative support has tripled in Quebec over the course of the federal election campaign with the party even making modest inroads among sovereigntists, a new poll suggests.

"In fact, they've become the most popular choice among Quebec federalists but, further, that their cause electorally might well be aided by a significant number of sovereigntists."

But one revealing finding was that 49 per cent of sovereigntist respondents who indicated they were not fully decided or could change their mind said they were seriously considering voting Tory or might think seriously about it.

In fact, 24 per cent of sovereigntists in the poll said they would be more likely to vote Conservative if they became convinced the Tories could win a majority.

http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/ContentServer?pagename=thestar/Layout/Article_Type1&c=Article&cid=1137451824623&call_pageid=968332188774&col=968350116467

Seems like we have been through this all before.

[glarius]

1. Sure we've been thru it all before......Remember Mulroney?

He's been advising Harper and Harper did just what Mulroney did. He went into Quebec and promised them everything he knew they wanted to hear in order to get votes. If Harper is elected and doesn't deliver on everything, they will probably do as Mulroney's Quebec Conservatives did....desert him and join the Bloc (which Mulroney's Quebecers started.)....IMO

[V. Kid]

3. As a joke someone on babble asked if any Plane contracts needed...

...to be tendered.

Hahaha.

[daleo]

2. Not sure if the Quebec polls will translate into votes, let alone seats

For Harper. Bloc supporters could even be leading pollsters down the garden path, by claiming the plan to vote Conservative. It makes the Conservative polls look stronger in the national counts. I just don't know. We will know in a week.

[northamericancitizen]

4. Some souverainist Québequers hope that Harper is

elected: it would help the cause of an independant Québec.

[HEyHEY]

5. It's a decima poll - therefore bullshit

[V. Kid]

6. Maybe not Ipsos had a huge poll in Quebec saying:

Quebec : BQ48/L13/C25/N10/G3

Nationally the poll had over 8,000 people respond. So that means Quebec had at least 2,000. When people where saying the Liberals were only going to win 8 seats or so in Quebec I didn't believe them, at 20-25%, they'd hold onto at least 12. But even in places like Papineau, where the won by a 2:1 margin in 2000, they just barely won last time. I don't know how soft the Conservative, Bloc and New Democratic support is in Montreal, but unless the Liberals can woo some of that back, they Liberals will be looking to be reduced to a few key strongholds on the West Island of Montreal. Maybe even Paul Martin will loose his seat, which I suppose he'd think is a blessing in disguise, as I doubt he wants to lead some rump.

[daleo]

7. Bigger polls are only more accurate if a pollster is unbiased

If a pollster is shooting for a biased result, a large poll helps. He or she then has more options in terms of who to include in the poll, who gets thrown out, what the definition of decided is, etc.

Now, if a pollster is unbiased and a sample is well drawn then a larger sample size helps. But that's not always the case.

[V. Kid]

8. Yes, but I think Ipsos is decent...

...as they tend to be of the most reliable ones, their methadology is sound. And where only 1 point off for the last BC election I think they predicted NDP 40%, Liberals 47%, and it was NDP 41, Liberals 46%. Besides, 1.1% either way is pretty good. Also, they're poll is the best one so far, for regional accuracy, as other polls have tiny sample sizes in certain regoins like BC. Where some polls have said the Conservatives are ahead with 45%, some the Liberals with 40%, and some the NDP leading a three way race with about 35%, all within the same period of time. This one was more reasonable.

[daleo]

11. Perhaps they were good in the B.C. election

Maybe they will be accurate in this one too. Time will tell. I still say only a point or two will separate Conservatives and Liberals. Call it a hunch.

[HEyHEY]

12. Angus Reid is a huge liberal supporter

So if his polls are skewed in any way...it's Liberal

[daleo]

13. Well, the SES/CPAC tracking poll is now 37-32-18

http://www.sesresearch.com/main.asp

All the polls are skewed. The nice thing about this one is that it doesn't try to impute the behaviour of the undecided vote, which is 16%. Last time they went away from the Conservatives. I think that is why the Globe et al are reporting such wildly divergent results from this one - they are trying to generate a bandwagon effect.

I don't really know about Angus Ried anymore, given the divergence between them and the CPAC poll. We will see on Tuesday, I guess.

[V. Kid]

15. We are talking about Quebec...

...look pretty much every poll is showing that the bottom has fallen out of Liberal support in Quebec, that's the topic. They're even struggling in Montreal. Paul Martin may even loose his own seat. And even if he doesn't, I don't think he'd stick around much longer considering these results. Last election the Liberals had momentum at this point, now they don't. And it's not just the SC poll that says this, the Liberals just look like they're going to loose, everyone is pretty much saying it, and more importantly they're making mistakes, and not really capturing people's hearts and minds. I think the Conservatives momentum outside of Quebec is slowing, infact it may be reversed somewhat in the west and especially in Ontario. I don't think the Conservatives will do as well as some bizzare regional results say they will, outside of Quebec.

But in Quebec people are really pissed off at the Liberals. And federalists are scared, and think that if the Liberals are the ones still representing the federalist cause, they're doomed because A) the federal Liberals are corrupt, and B) the provincial Liberals (who yes, I know are lead by a Conservative) are wildly unpopular so C) sovreignty will look more appealing.

As for why I think Ipsos and EKOS are the best, even though like every polling company they can have stinkers, they seem to have the least wild fluctations of the polling firms in this election. SES's regional polls are completely whacky, and the polls the Globe uses (Strategic Council) are ridiculous because like you say their methadology tries to create a bandwagon effect. But like you say, we'll see.

[daleo]

16. Yes, the regional polls are wildly erratic.

With the SES polls, based on reported margin of error, I impute their three day moving average sample sizes (decided voters) to be about:

Atlantic Canada - 100 or so
Quebec - 250 or so
Ontario - 320 or so
West - 330 or so

So day to day swings will be pretty big, even using a three day moving average.

On any one night's tracking you can divide all those numbers by 3.

The reasonable polls seem to be showing Conservative support topping out, and settling in at about 37% right now. I doubt if they will actually get that on election day, but who knows? So the election will depend on how the centre-left and the undecided (which is still pretty large) breaks.

I just made a moderate wager with a friend who took even money on a Conservative majority. So I sure hope the Conservatives have topped out.

[AX10]

14. but your national media is sure skewed to the right.

[Pierre Trudeau]

9. Who would have ever expected this??

I certainly didn't, anyone else?

A mere month ago, the notion that Quebecers would suddenly warm to Harper would have made us pee our pants laughing.

:shrug:

[CHIMO]

10. Everything Old

Is new again.

It wasn't even on my radar screen. I could see the Bloc hoping for a Reform victory but never thought through the effect that Quebec could have in influencing this outcome because it was the Liberals vs. the Bloc. But take a look at post #4, from someone on the ground.

Quite savvy politics in Quebec.

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/74e2e49a-877f-11da-8762-0000779e2340.html

[Hoping4Change]

17. Could one interpret this surge for Harper as Quebecers not wanting to

show support for independence which might be inferred if Quebec voted solidly for the Bloc?

[Telly Savalas]

18. Sort of.

The Bloc is polling in the high 40's which is how they fared in the last election. So any Conservative improvement is mostly coming from federalists who a pissed at the Liberals.