CPAC tracking poll, Jan 18/2006

[daleo]

Cons 37.0
Lib 30.7
NDP 16.6
BQ 10.7
Green 4.9

Undecided 15.2

This has been consistent for the past four or five polling days. The Conservatives have settled in at 37% over the last 4 or 5 polls. The Liberals seem to have settled in at 30 to 32. The NDP seems to have settled in at 17 to 18, BQ at 10 to 11, and Greens at 5. There is still a large undecided vote of 15.2%, but the Liberals would have to pick up that up at 2:1 over the Conservatives to pull even in the popular vote. There is a bit of back and forth between Liberals and NDP, but it doesn't seem to me that there will be a big strategic vote one way or another (maybe in ridings where it is clear which way to vote strategically defeats a Conservative).

So, it looks like the Conservatives will have a plurality, but not a majority. That will be extremely unstable, and will make the last Parliament seem staid in comparison. Any such government won't last long. I think we would be in for another election within a year, possibly much less.

My hunch is Harper will try to pounce on the next Gomery report and call a snap election, claiming "corruption" and the need for a strong Conservative majority. I think Gomery will produce a relatively "dodgy dossier" for that reason and the media will give it star treatment. All that stops will come out and it may even work, if Harper hasn't had time to reveal much of his real agenda to the Canadian people.

[Spazito]

1. It was the strategic/undecided voters who decided the last election

and it seems they will decide this one.

"There is still a large undecided vote of 15.2%, but the Liberals would have to pick up that up at 2:1 over the Conservatives to pull even in the popular vote."

As per this survey that focused solely on that group of voters, it seems they will lean Liberal when push comes to shove:

Poll shows undecided voters more likely to go Grit

snip

The Decima Research online voter-tracking study found uncommitted voters in English Canada were less preoccupied than average with scandal and less likely to want change _ all of which augurs well for Prime Minister Paul Martin's party.

snip

With only two weeks to go to the Jan. 23 vote, the Conservatives have opened up a narrow lead over the Liberals, according to most surveys. However, opinion polls ordinarily report only the party preferences of decided voters. That includes those who are leaning toward, but not firmly committed to, one of the parties.

snip

At the time of the survey, they were leaning 52 to 36 per cent toward the Liberals.

more

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20060103/decima_poll_060108/20060108?s_name=election2006&no_ads=

[daleo]

2. Yes, I recall that story

I hope it turns out that way. Last election the difference between the final CPAC/SES poll and the election was about +5 or +6 for the Liberals (from about 31% or 32% to about 37%). The Conservatives were about -3 (from about 31% or 32% to about 29%). So, in that election the undecided vote definitely went Liberal, along with perhaps some soft NDP polling support.

I think we will see a repetition of that, but at a smaller magnitude. So, I still say the popular vote will be close - Liberals and Conservatives will each get around 32% to 34% - it could break either way as to who gets the most.

At best, Harper will have a narrow and unstable majority. Liberal and NDP seats might even be enough for a minority, which this time I think both parties would settle for, and govern for 2+ years.

[Spazito]

3. I agree, this one will be closer, harder to call

and I also agree that, if there were enough Liberal and NDP seats to form a minority, this one would last longer than the last minority. The only thing I know for sure, at this point, is that it is going to be a nail-biter on the 23rd, lol.

[best left blank]

4. Do you mean

'if there are enough Liberal NDP seats to form a majority?'

[Spazito]

5. Here is some information as to what happens if the results of

an election doesn't show a clear choice:

If election results hand a party opposed to the sitting prime minister and his Cabinet a clear majority, the Governor General's job is simple. After the outgoing Cabinet resigns, all the Governor General has to do is call on the leader of the victorious party to choose new ministers.

Once they are approved and formally appointed by the Governor General, the handover of power is said to be complete.

The transition is complicated, however, if no party emerges with a clear majority. In that case, the incumbent Government has two choices.

It can immediately resign, leaving an opening for the Governor General to invite the leader of the next-largest party to form its own Cabinet.

Because voluntarily relinquishing power is a rare occurrence in politics, the more likely outcome is for the sitting Cabinet to stay in office and test its mandate in the House of Commons.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/print/CTVNews/20040623/election2004_minorityreport_20040617/20040623/?hub=SpecialEvent9&subhub=PrintStory