Final Ipsos poll, Jan 21:

[Minstrel Boy]

Con 38%
Lib 26%
NDP 19%

Seat projection
Con 143-147
BQ 59-63
Lib 59-63
NDP 39-43


A new national Ipsos Reid survey of 2000 Canadians, conducted for CanWest News Service/Global News from January 17-19th, frames the Conservatives holding 38% of federal votes (+1 point) and taking a 12-point lead over the Liberals (26%, -3 points) into the final election weekend. The NDP at 19% (+1 point) and the Green Party at 5% (unchanged) remain static in the polls.

Meanwhile, in Quebec, the Conservatives at 27% (+6 points) are now attracting nearly double the percentage of federal votes than are the Liberals (14%, -10 points) - the Bloc holds steady with 46% support (+3 points).

And while there has been speculation from many of a tightening vote scenario in the crucial province of Ontario, this trend does not appear evident: The Conservatives at 38% (-2 points) have maintained a lead (now at 4 points) over the Liberals (34%, -3 points) in this province. However, rising Liberal fortunes in the city of Toronto alone, which will not produce any new seats for the Party, has perhaps been at the root of this speculation.

Ipsos Reid's seat model projects that if a vote were held tomorrow, the Conservatives would have a potential of 143-147 seats, the Liberals would have a potential of 59-63 seats, the NDP would have a potential of 39-43 seats, and the Bloc Quebecois would have a potential of 59-63 seats. In order to achieve a majority government, a party needs a minimum of 155 seats in the House of Commons.

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/pressrelease.cfm?id=2948

[Darth_Kitten]

1. it's a CanWest poll......

Gee, aren't they rather right wing?

[Minstrel Boy]

2. And Ekos and the Toronto Star,

they're rather Liberal, aren't they?

Just sayin', it's time for Canadians to vote for the opposition they want, not the government they're not going to get.

[Darth_Kitten]

3. I wouldn't know cause I really don't care about polls.

I'm talking about CanWest.

[jackbourassa]

4. Jesus, the Libs may finish 3rd...

They might not even be Official Opposition.

[Darth_Kitten]

5. ????

I'd be very surprised as they have at least 10 points over the NDP.

Last I heard the gap between Libs/Cons has narrowed to 5-6 points. :shrug:

I don't know what to believe anymore, it's not like the media is giving out accurate information.

[Minstrel Boy]

6. There's not a 1:1 correlation between pop vote and seats

The way the vote breaks, region to region and riding to riding, makes a huge difference. The breaks don't look good for the Liberals.

Remember the '93 election? The PCs won 16% of the vote but only 2 seats. The NDP plunged to less than 7% but won 9.

When the national Liberal and NDP pop votes are relatively close, advantage goes to the NDP in three-way races.

Ironic it was the Liberals who frustrated the NDP's initiative on electoral reform in the last parliament.

[Darth_Kitten]

7. I know that.

n/t

[jackbourassa]

9. You're forgetting about the Bloc.

The Bloc may form the official opposition. They have before (1993-1997).

[Spazito]

8. It seems the percentage of undecided voters is missing here

yet they often are the deciding factor in close elections and I remember reading that they are around 15% which is a major factor, imo.

When Ipsos is contracted by CanWest, an organization very supportive of the faux Cons, one has to take their results with a LARGE dose of salt, imo.

[jackbourassa]

10. I hear the undecided is closer to 5%.

n/t

[Spazito]

11. The last poll I saw that had the undecided had them at about

15%, if you have one with more recent numbers, I would appreciate seeing it.

[Vote NDP]

12. BQ would make a better opposition than the Fibranos...

Better to have a party that is genuinely progressive and genuinely opposed to the imperial ambitions of Washington and Beijing in the halls of power.