CPC Will Govern Until Progressives Unite

[Bragi]

Here's my prediction:

- Harper will govern as a moderate while in minority, and increase his popular support while doing this;

- The NDP will continue to pretend that they made a real breakthrough in this election, when in fact they were just more lucky than usual on the splits, and their popular vote only went up marginally (1.5 per cent) which is well within their historical norms since they were founded 1962;

- The NDP will prop up the Harper government in Parliament, and Layton will spend his time in parliament, and in the next election, mostly hammering the Libs more than the CPC;

- The Libs leadership contest will do nothing to renew the party in any serious way;

- Harper will pull the4 plug within 18-24 months and win a majority;

- The CPC will continue to govern thereafter until the Libs and the NDP unite so that the majority of progressive voters in Canada can get behind a single alternative to the CPC.

- B

[Spazito]

1. Nope, I think you are wrong

Many Canadians parked their votes this election while making sure the faux Cons didn't get a majority, they didn't even give the faux Cons as many seats as the last Lib minority ergo a VERY, VERY tight leash and Harper, being inherently arrogant, won't take kindly to his leash and will do what he does historically, trust his own instincts over that of his advisors.

Canadians do NOT trust Harper, it is as simple as that.

[Bragi]

7. Harper knows what he's doing...

I think Harper will continue playing the role of the moderate right leader up until the next election, where he will face off against the NDP and Liberals, who will once again be lashing out at each other, and dividing up the non-conservative majority.

After he wins this election with a majority, Harper will then do the things his base want done. Maybe then the NDP and Liberals will conclude they can't win if they remain divided.

(Incidentally, for those who claimed here I was writing as a Liberal, I've basically been an NDP voter all my life.)

- B

[HEyHEY]

2. We're talking DECADES of government without that happening

Suddenly one con minority win is gonna change that *Switches to valley-girl voice* I don't thiink soooo.

[Bragi]

8. Times change, things evolve N/T

[V. Kid]

13. Oh my god.

You don't get it.

The world is going to come to an end.

Like, pshaaa.

(I can do the valley girl voice too ;-))

[GirlinContempt]

3. It's amazing how whiny liberals get

when they manage to screw something up enough for Canadians to tell them off. Whiny and childish, because instead of realizing their mistakes, they look for another scapegoat and don't address their own problems. It really makes me wonder how they stayed in power so long, they act like petulant children.

[Bragi]

9. I'm not a Liberal, I'm NDP

I think the left is now facing a similar situation to what the right faced after the 1993 election.

Things may turn out otherwise, but I think my prognostication makes more sense than the one that assumes Harper is a dummy, he can't control his base, that the Libs leadership contest will produce a bright, shiny new political option, and that Harper will therefore lose the next election.

- B

[V. Kid]

18. I don't think so. There's no Glen Clark or Bob Rae. And...

...if you look at the results the Conservatives went up 7 percentage points, the NDP went up about 2. The NDP has been consistently gaining in the last three years, too more traditional levels precisley because those two men's ghosts are being excised.

As for where the "Liberal Votes" went, it seems that they mostly went to the Conservatives about 5.5 percent, whereas about 1.8 went to the NDP and a little to the Bloc and Greens. So it's not as if there's a huge segment of people who actually went with Jack Layton's idea to "lend us your vote", so it's not as if they're going to be crushed next election. There's no unpopular BC or Ontario NDP goverments screwing things up for the NDP, so they don't need to worry to the same extent. In fact there's quite a lot of growth potential, but that's a story for another thread.

[iverglas]

16. imagine if the NDP was like that!

Lordy, there'd be nothing but whining from one end of the country to the other, from January to December.

There must be some dirty tricks going on or the NDP would be governing Canada and all its provinces, no? Obviously. What else could possibly explain our failure to win elections?

Stupid electorate, voting for all the wrong reasons, not seeing that the NDP is its only salvation, falling for cheap sensationalism and scare tactics ...

I feel a hissy fit coming on. Care to join me?

[Minstrel Boy]

4. Why the hell do you think the NDP will prop up Harper?

You a Liberal or somethin'?

The NDP will be the most vigorous parliamentary opposition to Harper's agenda, both ideologically and strategically, to present an unambigously progressive voice to distinguish it from the Liberals.

The BQ are far more likely to prop up the Conservatives, as both are interested in devolving federal power.

I hope one thing the NDP and the Conservatives can agree upon is electoral reform. The first-past-the-post system has entrenched disenfranchisement in the system to the benefit of the Liberals for too long. The NDP's percent of the vote is equivalent to 60 seats, and the Bloc to about 30.

[Canadian_moderate]

5. I hope you're right on electoral reform

The big problem my be the Bloc since the tend to have the greatest advantage of the current system's distortions. Ironically, it's a British system and the Bloc should hate all things British, right? If the Liberal don't play along, this will likely never happen. I'm afraid we may be stuck with this outdated and inappropriate electoral system.

[V. Kid]

14. Intrestingly enough...

...it would've helped the Liberals keep representation in Alberta, and do better outside of Montreal, in Quebec, if there was proportional representation.

[Canadian_moderate]

15. Regardless

Of who won how many riding, proportional representation is more fair.

I do think that there should be a minimum (3% or so) to avoid some of the fringe parties. The Green Party would be just large enough to have representation.

If it done on a proncial-split basis each province would have representation based on each party's proportional vote in ach province.

For example, in Quebec the result would have looked more like this:

Bloc Québécois 42.1 % - 32 MPs
Liberal Party of Canada 20.7 % - 16 MPs
Conservative Party of Canada 24.6 % - 18 MPs
New Democratic Party 7.5 % - 6 MPs
Green Party of Canada 4.0 % - 3 MPs

Total - 75 MPs. Each party would have to name a list of proposed MP candidate and it would be up to each party to sort out their regional representation within each province. This system would also make it much easier to increase the number of women and minority Members of Parliament.

A very small province such a PEI could still have aminimum of 4 MPs, although the rounding of the number of MPs would be a little more tricky.

To be honest, I think this type of system would reinvigorate Canadians' interest in politics. It would make every vote count and we would never have any party impose its will on the people of Canada unless they had an absolute majority.

[V. Kid]

19. Maybe you'd be intrested in: http://www.fairvotecanada.org/

It's a non-partisan organization, with partisans of all stripes of course, who want to create a more fair type of voting system. I don't think they nessecarilly advocate any one system whether that's mixed member proportional representation, or single transferable vote like BC voted on in 2005, but they do advocate "fair" reform.

[Bragi]

10. here's why...

I think Layton has convinced himself that the political fortunes of the NDP are advanced more by attacking and weakening the Liberals than it is by going after the CPC. The NDP did well on seats yesterday, but it was hrough splits, not significantly increased popular vote (which only went up 1.5 per cent.)

I see Layton continuing to target the Libs for strictly partisan reasons, even though he knows this may lead inevitably to a conservative majority.

[Telly Savalas]

11. So in other words, you think that Layton can muster more enthusiasm

for the NDP by rolling over and playing dead for the Cons? What a curious theory.

[Posteritatis]

6. My prediction's simpler:

- Harper'll do precisely what the opposition wants him to in order to survive for awhile, thus effectively giving us a small-l liberal government; or

- Harper'll get no-conned by the 184 left-and-centre MPs on some trivial and/or significant issue before the year's out; and

- There will be an election; and

- Harper will go and get himself Mulronied; and

- We will be back to the relatively good ol' days of the nineties, having re-gelded the right wing.


That is, after all, what's happened to the other Conservative minorities in the past.

Seriously now. Gloom and despair and rank cynicism are all very popular around here, and they sure feel emotionally satisfying, but they don't line up with reality. This is not the end of the world, nor is it the beginning of some enduring right-wing dictatorship. We are quite safe here.

(Edit 3:52p - *smacks DU for not liking simply linking to images*)

[AX10]

12. I agree under one condition:

The Liberals must clean house and find a new leader who is inovative, clean, and shares the values of Canandians. I hope that the party can find a new leader in the next few months (by April).

[Swede]

17. There are far too many wingnuts in his party.

The anti gay,anti immigrant,bigots will flap their lips and the Liberals will again rule.

[AX10]

20. I hope you are right.

!Liberals will again rule again!