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Edited on Thu Feb-16-06 04:45 PM by Minstrel Boy
that mean nothing.
The Liberals can make a big show of voting non-confidence on the Thrown Speech, and claim the NDP or Bloc or both are "propping up" the Conservatives when they don't. When it comes to legislation, the NDP will be voting according to its own program and self-interest, and it is not in its interest to support reactionary legislation. The Liberals don't have such qualms, and are in no shape to go to the polls again.
Last week on Politics with Don Newman Graham was asked about the 1979 snap election when Trudeau returned to fight the election after having resigned. He laughed and he said he saw no chance of that history being repeated.
The Liberals will not force an early election, because (a) they're in debt, (b) they would lose even worse because Canadians are in a mood to give Harper a chance, and (c) they don't want to fight another election with Martin as leader. (Graham isn't the alternative. He's only the parliamentary leader.)
From a Globe and Mail editorial, Feb 11 (Pulled off Factiva, so no link):
What happens if the government is defeated before Mr. Martin is replaced? Some want an early leadership convention; forget the policy debates. Others, especially members of the youth wing, want to delay the convention until March of 2007 so there will be time to scrutinize the many largely unknown contenders. Key party executives are apparently leaning toward late January, before the parliamentary session would resume.
In the meantime, party organizers can only hold their breath, because they do not want Mr. Martin to lead them into another election. If the unexpected happens — if the Conservative government topples this spring and Mr. Harper announces a five-week campaign — there would be no time for a leadership convention. That has happened before. In 1979, shortly after Pierre Trudeau resigned, the Tories were defeated in Parliament. Caught unprepared, Liberal party and caucus members asked Mr. Trudeau to lead them into the next election.
What happens if history repeats itself and there is a snap election? Without time for a convention, the Liberals could theoretically be forced to retain Mr. Martin as leader in a spring campaign. To handle that daunting possibility, insiders say key party executives have flatly told Mr. Martin that they will not permit him to lead the party into any snap election if he insists on appointing his long-time clique of advisers to key campaign roles where he would rely on their advice. Mr. Martin has absolutely refused to abandon those advisers. In response, to block an emergency comeback by Mr. Martin with the same tired crew of counsellors, executives are examining ways to select delegates well before the convention. That way, the executives could rapidly organize an electronic leadership vote by those delegates, ensuring the party would have a new leader even if the government fell unexpectedly over the next few months. It's that bad.
This is a party that does not have its act together. And it will have to find peace soon, if only out of a sense of responsibility to the public. The Conservatives could fall. An election could be held. And the Liberals could be caught with the same incoherent jumble of policy prescriptions that they dragged into the last campaign. There are too many trade and economic challenges, too many challenges in the federation itself. Policy should preoccupy the Liberals at least as much as power.
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