Nik on the Numbers

[daleo]

CPAC-Nanos nightly tracking completed last night (September 11th) shows the Conservatives seven points ahead of the Liberals among decided voters. (CP 38%, Lib 31%, NDP 14%, BQ 9% GP 9%). The Tories and Liberals continue to be statistically tied in Ontario (Lib 40%; CP 39%) with the Tories extending their lead in the West to 18 points (CP 45%; Lib 27%).

Looking at the Ontario graph, it appears that the NDP vote has collapsed and went Conservative - very strange, and its hard to believe it will hold.

I trust Nanos's numbers based on past experience. If these results were to hold, there would probably be little change from last election. But this is far from over.

http://www.nanosresearch.com/election/CPAC-Nanos-September-12-2008E.pdf

[Caradoc]

1. On the ground in Ontario

I'm working the election for the liberals in Ontario (MUST STOP HARPER MAJORITY!!!) and these numbers are much more in line with what we're seeing/hearing on the ground. Those CBC/Environics numbers (42% tories) are whack! It should be noted that any numbers this early are almost certainly 'soft'. Nothing gels til about 10 days out...then you worry.

[daleo]

2. Thanks for the inside view

NDP votes going Conservative in Ontario just seems strange to me. Given the sample sizes involved, though, it is well within margin of sampling error.

I listened to Dion's press conference from B.C. this morning. After getting over the language thing, I was quite pleasantly supplied. He has a sincere intelligence and passion that comes through the more you hear him. Given time, I think the country will agree with me.

[Caradoc]

3. Thanks! Plus...

A fairly right-wing friend of mine met Dion in January of this year while working on a writing assignment. I asked him what he thought of him (I still had my doubts back then and was curious). 'Perhaps the smartest man I've ever met' was his reply. And smarts are qualification #1 for a national leader in my book.

That being said, the Harper minority government wasn't keeping me awake at night...the Liberals had gotten tired and a little lazy and democracy works best when you shake things up every once in a while (you listening, Alberta?). Harper was on a short leash and could be bounced at anytime. But trust him with a majority? Not a chance...that's when the neo-con free marketeer Harper would return, the same one too extreme for the old Reform/Alliance Party.

Thanks for the poll...the first one to make sense so far!

[iverglas]

6. just so I can go on record

'Perhaps the smartest man I've ever met' was his reply. And smarts are qualification #1 for a national leader in my book.

They're my qualification #1 too, although a top score on that point can be overridden by other things. I wouldn't go *quite* so far as your friend maybe, but then I haven't met Dion. I have met Chrétien, and he was waaay up there.

My mum had a couple of things to say about current events the other day. Sarah Palin is "scary", and Stéphane Dion seems like a very nice man. I agree on both points.

[iverglas]

4. "NDP votes going Conservative in Ontario just seems strange to me"

Doesn't it just?

Perhaps a more reasonable explanation would be that as the Liberals bleed votes to the Conservatives, some former NDP voters are saying they plan to shift to the Liberals as what they see to be the best way to ensure a non-Conservative win.

[daleo]

5. That theory is a pretty good one

If that trend in Ontario holds up.