Harper attacks true enemy: strategic voting.

[HeresyLives]

Harper attacks true enemy: strategic voting

By Alexander Panetta, THE CANADIAN PRESS

2008-09-24


VANCOUVER - Stephen Harper has launched an attack on what may prove to be his true enemy this election campaign - strategic voting.


It's the same inveterate foe that thwarted him in the last two elections, eroding Conservative popular support and seat projections in the final campaign days.

The fear is that left-leaning voters could toss their support to their second-favourite party - Liberals jumping to the NDP in some ridings, New Democrats casting their ballots for Stephane Dion in others, and Greens and Bloquistes switching allegiances - in a bid to block Harper.


snip -

Harper's campaign strategy from Day 1 has centred on keeping the almost two-thirds of Canadian voters who support centre and left-wing parties split.


http://cnews.canoe.ca/CNEWS/Canada/CanadaVotes/News/2008/09/24/6864221-cp.html

[daleo]

1. There are interesting dynamics at work

Harper may benefit from an NDP surge, via vote splitting, but he may also be harmed.

From the movement in some polls, I get the sense that a proportion of voters are torn between voting Harper and voting NDP. It seems strange, but here's a theory:

In the 2006 election, the focus was on harming the Liberal brand via the sponsorship scandal and related matters. This was moderately effective, and switched 7 or 8 percent of the electorate from Liberal to Conservative. But these people have now seen Harper in action, and some of them are not impressed. But the Liberal brand is tarnished in their minds, so they are considering the NDP.

I think Harper and the media will soon launch a serious attack on the NDP. They wanted the NDP as the Washington Generals to the Conservatives Harlem Globetrotters (i.e. an opponent who would dependably lose). But there is a chance they could get a Bob Rae type unexpected NDP win instead. So they will have to attack the NDP soon. Of course that may result in gains for the Liberals.

If we get a true three horse race, there's no telling what might happen. Interesting dynamics.

[HeresyLives]

2. The part that annoys me is,

'has centred on keeping the almost two-thirds of Canadian voters who support centre and left-wing parties split.'

And yet we could still end up with rightwing Harper as PM!! :grr:

So I could do without 'interesting'. :)

Both the NDP and Harperites are populist to a great extent, so I imagine that's why the switcheroo from one end to the other of the political spectrum.

[LiberadorHugo]

3. They aren't populist...

The merge of the PCs and the Reform Party saw the elimination of provisions for electoral reform and participatory democracy from the united party's platform.

[HeresyLives]

4. They do small things that are popular.

They worry about spam, and malfunctioning gas pumps, claim ordinary people don't like culture, send cheques to women who stay at home, that kind of thing. They are reassuring about the economy, and even tell people to ignore it and go shopping.

Most people never give a thought to electoral reform or PR, anymore than they care about the Senate.

But there is no direction for the country, no vision.