Would Labour be doing better if they tossed Brown?

[liberalpragmatist]

Again, I'm just an American political junkie who likes to follow politics around the world.

At least from here, I can't help but feel *somewhat* sorry for Brown. He's been extremely uninspiring, but he strikes me as better than Blair and though some of his woes seem self-inflicted, it does seem as if he's in many ways the victim of (a) the natural decline of New Labour and (b) the poor economic cycle.

Do you think Labour would have been doing better or worse if they'd kept Blair? My sense is it would have made no difference, as Blair's poll ratings were pretty bleak back in '06 and '07 too.

Could Labour improve their position with a new leader? I hadn't thought so, because it would look desperate and probably necessitate an earlier election. But increasingly, given how dire their poll ratings are, I'm beginning to think they have nothing to lose. Their poll ratings can hardly get worse and a new leader at least has the potential to notch them up 5-7 points, which could save a broad swathe of seats and allow them to fight another day.

[T_i_B]

1. Labour would be doing just as badly with Blair still in charge.

As to who could replace Brown, who realistically could turn Labour's fortunes around in time for the next election? That's not a question I'm seeing any good answers to at the moment.

Besides, what is annoying about Labour's current internal woes is that there is little or no discussion of policy. It's as if many of the people queing up up knife Brown think that having a new face in charge of the same old policies and approach as before will suddenly make things any better for them.

[non sociopath skin]

2. Absolutely, Thanx.

This isn't really about personalities. It's about crap policies and political cowardice.

The Skin

[Anarcho-Socialist]

3. T_i_B is correct

Labour dissidents think the answer is another Blairite to carry on the neoliberal consensus, and the problems are policy rather than personality-related.

It would be nice to see a left-wing challenge, but the Parliamentary base of the Labour left is gone and left-wingers in the party have lapsed from membership.

The Lib Dems could have put forward a coherent social democratic alternative, but the Orange Bookists have taken their party into the neoliberal club (as fedsron2us mentioned, at a time when the neoliberal model is in a state of collapse). The Lib Dems have never recovered from knifing Charles Kennedy in the back. Unlike Thatcher in 1990 and Brown in 2008, Kennedy was a great asset to his party and a popular leader with the public at large.

[Mr Creosote]

4. I can't see any reason to feel sorry for Brown

he was Blair's annointed successor since 1994 and I'm not aware of him publicly criticising anything Blair ever did.HDomestically he has been the champion of light financial services regulation, PFI, and means-testing.

[fedsron2us]

5. No. Brown is bad. The alternatives are worse.

The crisis in the world financial system doomed this government over a year ago and no shuffling of faces at the top is going to change that fact. Most of the likely challengers know that defeat at the polls is almost inevitable which why the current attempts to unseat Brown are not going to amount to anything. None of them really wants to lead the party to electoral disaster. The only things that would change this situation would be if Brown himself decided to resign. I think his sense of duty mixed with destiny means he will see it out to 2010.

The ironic thing about the recent run of events is that I think that Brown is going to emerge from this period as a much more important historic figure than Blair who is going to be largely remembered for his electoral luck/skill and his disastrous foreign policy. For good or ill Brown was Chancellor a the credit boom inflated and was left holding the top job as it began to unravel in spectacular fashion. He is the man holding office at a truly pivotal moment in world history.

[LeftishBrit]

6. Shouldn't think so...

Unfortunately, there isn't really any obvious alternative leader who would do better. Miliband, the most likely successor, is just more of the same. And the state of the economy wouldn't help any ruling party.