The "Brown Bounce"

[T_i_B]

Interesting article from the New Statesman, but does the Labour party still have a snowball's chance of winning the next election, or stopping the rot?

http://www.newstatesman.com/uk-politics/2008/10/labour-party-government-brown

Something very odd is happening. People have started joining the Labour Party again. It's a trickle rather than a torrent, but around 1,000 people a month are now being recruited. Although the trend in membership is still down, party officials are delighted that the rate of decline appears to be slowing. Many are lapsed members returning to the faith. There has been a decided upturn since the Labour party conference in Manchester, I am told. Thanks to the internet (most now join Labour online) the party has also been able to gauge why people are signing up by asking them a series of simple questions before they submit their application forms.

According to this straw poll, the two main reasons for joining are, one, that they are impressed by Gordon Brown's handling of the economy and, two, that they believe there is a real danger of the Tories getting into government. I suspect the second reason is the more pressing. Despite Labour's recent recovery in the polls, the most likely outcome of the next election is a Tory victory. This is a chilling prospect not because they are necessarily a less progressive party (in many areas of criminal justice policy, for instance, they are distinctly more liberal than the government), but because they are so evidently unprepared for power. As their reaction to the recent economic downturn has shown, the Tories still do not look like a fully formed party of government.

At the same time, the Labour Party has begun to look like a fighting force again. Its media operation has a clear message about the choice the British electorate faces at the next election. On one side stands a Labour government with a ten-year record of investing in public services, which has already shown itself prepared to intervene to protect people against the recession. On the other is a Conservative Party pledging a £1m tax cut to the wealthiest and offering no serious economic alternative. In a statement to the New Statesman, a Labour Party spokesman said: "Many people say this is why they are joining Labour now. They may have an issue with one aspect or another of Labour government policy, but when push comes to shove they see the potential election more as a choice , not a referendum and want to lend their support. Anyone who believes in social justice can see the risk of letting Cameron's Tories slip into Downing Street is too dangerous to go unchallenged."

There is something in this. But the politics of the lesser evil will not be enough to win the Labour Party the next election. This was the mistake the party made in the strategy it adopted to fight the recent London mayoral elections. It must not repeat this error by standing on the platform: "You may think Gordon Brown is bad, but wait till you see what the other guy has planned for you." The experience of seeing Ken Livingstone losing to Boris Johnson should show that it is not sufficient to raise the spectre of Tories in power.

[fedsron2us]

1. From my early 1980s experience you do not want to be on the dole with the Tories in power.

I think that folk memory is still pretty strong which may explain Browns sudden turn around in the polls as the economic storm has gathered. You can also add in the fact that the Conservative's chums in the City have been first in line for state hand outs now times have got tough (John Redwoods attempts to justify the bailout of his banking friends was a particularly hilarious exercise in hypocrisy). This is going to undermine the Tory's normal tactic of blaming public sector workers and the union for all the nation's ills. The Tories may also find that an Obama presidency in the US could change the zeitgeist in ways that they do not particularly relish.

[Anarcho-Socialist]

2. The economic crisis has thrown a spanner in the works for the Tories

They had assumed like most that the Anglo-Saxon Friedman model would persist until a likely Tory government in 2010. With many free marketeers rediscovering their long-lost love of Keynesian demand management, where does this leave the Tories? If they have no economic plan acceptable to the electorate then they will either lose the election or not be able to attain a working majority.

[T_i_B]

3. But by the same token

...Labour still has a LOT of baggage, this whole mess has happened on their watch and it remains to be seen whether or not the bail-out will actually help that much. If people can see that it's saved Britain from a much worse fate then people might be inclined to give Brown some slack, but in the meantime we are still going to be in for some bad times.

[Anarcho-Socialist]

4. that is true

which I think prevents them from obtaining another working majority in 2010. Taking the Blair-Brown baggage into consideration, a Hung Parliament or a slender (less than 10) Labour majority would be amongst the feasible 'best case scenarios' for the Labour Party at the moment.