Lib Dems win Cheadle by-election; Labour loses deposit

[muriel_volestrangler]

The Lib Dems held the seat in Greater Manchester with 19,953 votes, a majority of 3657. The turnout was 55%.

The Conservatives, who believed they had a real chance of winning their first by-election seat from another party since 1982, came second.

Their candidate, Stephen Day, received 15,936 votes. The swing was 0.63% from Conservatives to Liberal Democrats.

The Labour candidate Martin Miller lost his £500 deposit because he had failed to win more than 5% of the vote.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4681533.stm

[Taxloss]

1. Huge relief for Lib Dems; a booster for them.

Disappointing for the Tories. (They're used to it.)

Shocker for Labour.

Did you hear the Victory speech?!

[muriel_volestrangler]

2. No, I didn't - anything good in it? Or embarrassing, or what? (n/t)

[Taxloss]

3. He really laid into the Conservatives.

Really slammed their campaign. Since the Tory candidate was standing right behind him all the time, it was uncomfortable to watch. I think these by-elections are getting more personal.

[non sociopath skin]

5. A timely reminder to Blair that despite his "Father of the Nation" stuff .

... since the London bombings, there is no groundswell of public affection for him or his government.

Anybody know offhand how far up the list of Tory targets this was? I recollect that it used to be pretty safe territory for them not so long ago.

The Skin

[T_i_B]

6. Tactical voting plays a part in these seats

One thing you tend to find, is that in Lib-Dem/Tory marginals Labour tends to lose a lot of voters to the Lib Dems due simply to tactical voting, which the Lib Dems do encourage in these situations.

On the plus side for Labour, they won the Becontree council seat in East London, fending off the BNP.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/london/4684995.stm

[non sociopath skin]

7. Especially in Tory seats like this which are unwinnable for Labour ...

... even in its present Neo-Thatcherite incarnation.

Never quite got my head around why "left-sounding" LibDems do better in hard-line Tory areas than "right-sounding" Blairites.

Great news about the Becontree seat, though. Glad to see the far-right not making hay from a National Tragedy in the way that the American far-right did.

The Skin

[Anarcho-Socialist]

4. Good result and a swing away from the Tories too

It says something about the state of the Tories that they still get well beaten in by-elections in their "natural territory".

[demobrit]

8. First of many bi-election wins for the Lib-Dems

But what about the next General Election?

[Anarcho-Socialist]

9. An interesting question

There are rumblings that the Lib Dems are planning to move to the right of New Labour as a long-term strategy.

A Labour government that is a bit more centre-left under Gordon Brown would permit the Lib Dems room for manoeuvre in the so-called centre-ground.

However if the above comes to light, it means that the Lib Dems will lose some of the "natural Labour" seats they gained in the inner-cities if they're going to gear themselves to fight over Tory marginals (where they performed disappointingly this year).

Although who knows what will happen in the next four years? :shrug: