In the brief time since I joined DU I've seen numerous posts about the recount of the 2000 election that was sponsored by a group of media organizations and carried out by the NORC. Every one I've seen misstates the results of that study.
This topic also came up in yesterday's appearance by Cliff Arnebeck on C-Span. Steve Scully, the C-Span moderator, misstated the results and had to be corrected by Arnebeck.
And I find that when this topic comes up in conversation the results are usually misstated. The misstatement always goes something like this,
"But there was a recount of the 2000 election and it showed that Bush won".
If this happens to you and you would like to know the facts, here they are.
NORC, out of the University of Chicago, conducted the study in 2001 after Bush was inaugurated. They examined all of the undervote and overvote ballots in all 67 counties of Florida. They built a database containing each ballot and the counters' interpretation of the chads (punch cards) and marks (optical scan and absentee).
Once the database was built, they ran nine scenarios as to which counties were counted according to which standard. They multiplied these nine scenarios times two agreement criteria (majority vs. unanimous) for a total of eighteen possible results.
Of these eighteen possible ways the vote could have been recounted, Bush won seven and Gore won eleven.
Specifically,
Bush won if the recount that Gore requested would have been finished (four counties). Gore won if you recounted the whole state.The whole-state recount is the most important scenario, at least to me, because it is the one that gets to the heart of the question - who won if every legitimate voter's vote was counted.
But even if you don't agree with that assessment, you have to admit that the statements being floated around that the NORC recount showed that Bush won Florida in 2000 are, at best, misleading because they forget to tell you that Gore won in more than half the scenarios, including the one where the whole state was recounted.
Please feel free to doublecheck what I'm saying and comment if you disagree. But do me a favor - if you disagree then be specific and base it on the facts. Here is the home page for the NORC recount project:
http://www.norc.uchicago.edu/fl/index.asp