Huge Bush margin increases in 3 S.W. Ohio counties questionable

[berniew1]

ELECTION RESULTS IN SOUTHWESTERN OHIO

Richard Hayes Phillips, Ph.D. www.flcv.com/swohio.html

Three contiguous counties in southwestern Ohio, all traditionally Republican counties, gave unexpectedly large margins to George W. Bush over John F. Kerry on election night. All three counties experienced a huge increase in voter turnout. In all three counties, Bush received a higher percentage of the vote than he did in the 2000 election, and Kerry received a lower percentage of the vote than Al Gore did in 2000. This study analyzes how it happened.

In Warren County, the administrative building was locked down on election night, all in the name of "homeland security." No independent persons were allowed to observe the vote count. Compared to 2000, the population increased by 14.75%, the number of registered voters increased by 29.66%, voter turnout increased by 33.55%, Bush’s point spread increased from 42.24% to 44.58%, and Bush’s victory margin increased from 29,176 votes to 41,124 votes.

In Clermont County, compared to 2000, the population increased by 4.39%, the number of registered voters increased by 10.20%, voter turnout increased by 24.86%, Bush's point spread increased from 37.50% to 41.69%, and Bush's victory margin increased from 26,202 votes to 36,376 votes.

In Butler County, compared to 2000, the population increased by 3.12%, the number of registered voters increased by 10.06%, voter turnout increased by 18.18%, Bush's point spread increased from 29.40% to 32.52%, and Bush's victory margin increased from 40,197 votes to 52,550 votes.

These three counties provided to George W. Bush a victory margin of 130,050 votes, more than his statewide margin of 119,000 votes. All the above data other than the statewide margin are figures provided on election night.

After close examination of the underlying data by precinct, I do not believe these numbers. They call into question both the voter registration data and the turnout data, and the validity of the vote count itself.

These three counties between them, Butler, Warren, and Clermont, provided all of George W. Bush’s lead on election night. They also provided, by far, his three largest majorities, and the three largest increases in Bush’s margin of victory among any of the 72 counties that he won. The election results in Butler, Warren, and Clermont counties should be challenged, for they call into question the results for the entire State of Ohio.

[Old and In the Way]

1. Canvass and poll those counties

Seems that a comprehensive poll could validate/refute these conclusions.

[nmoliver]

2. has this been forwarded?

Has this material been forwarded to Arnebeck, Conyers and the House Judiciary Committee?

[berniew1]

10. Additional documentation on more Ohio counties unusual results

Strong indications of major electronic glitches or fraud in Ohio in several counties (rural and suburban counties) (documentation) www.flcv.com/fraudioh.html
In analyzing the still-unofficial results, the totals reveal that C. Ellen Connally, an African-American Democratic candidate from Cleveland running for Ohio Chief Justice, received more
than votes than Kerry in many counties. For example in Butler County, Connally received 5347 more votes than Kerry. The list of the counties where Connally actually outpolled Kerry include
Auglaize, Brown, Butler, Clermont, Darke, Highland, Mercer, Miami, Putnam, Shelby, Van Wert, and Warren.
The reason the Kerry vote counts are suspect is because Connelly, a retired African-American judge, was vastly outspent in her race, and did not have the visibility of the presidential race.
Thus for a more obscure Democratic candidate, farther down on the ticket, to get many more votes statewide than Kerry, suggests something happened to suggest there may have been a
transfer of Kerry votes to Bush. ""Statistically, Kerry, as the Democratic presidential candidate, should have more votes than Connally. In a presidential election, most voters have the priority of
casting a vote for president and the votes for president are almost always much higher than those of candidates farther down the ticket. As of election night, 5,481,804 votes were counted for
Bush and Kerry. 4,327,270 votes were counted for Moyer and Connally.
""This looks like a computer glitch or a computer fix,"" said Bob Fitrakis, a lawyer, political scientist and Editor of the Columbus Free Press (http://freepres.org) who has written about election irregularities since Bush was declared the winner. Fitrakis is among the team of lawyers who announced they would soon file an election challenge in the state’’s Supreme Court.
**********************************************************************
Southwest Ohio: most successful voter registration drive in American political history, or stuffing the ballot box
http://web.northnet.org/minstrel/warren.htm
www.flcv.com/swohio.html

Richard Hayes Phillips, Ph.D. 4 Fisher Street Canton, NY 13617 [phone]
Other counties and likely Kerry win in recount with fair rules:
http://web.northnet.org/minstrel/alpage.htm
http://www.opednews.com/shurberg_112004_election.htm
Summary of Documentation on Ohio Vote Irregularities www.flcv.com/ohiov04.html

[BlueDog2u]

3. Very useful analysis

Can you be sure to get this to Rep Conyer's office? In view of the Warren lockdown, I think the Judiciary Committee would be very interesting that Warren and surrounding counties played such a pivotal role in establishing the Bush lead in official tabulated votes. It seems unlikely that this is a coincidence.

[myschkin]

4. fine work

and Jesse Jackson?

[EOTE]

5. kick

[rodeodance]

6. thanks--yes get it to the hearing committee!!

[bemis12]

7. Don't forget

The completely unexplainable evidence that Bush was trying to throw the election in Cuyahoga county, where he fared worse, both as a % and by 60,000 votes. Why is he doing that?

I mean, if the standard is "got a higher % than 2000", then "got a lower %" must be valid too.

Actually, the chance that anyone would get the same percent is reasonably small, therefore the overwhelming likelihood is that they'll get either more or less votes.

[tex-wyo-dem]

8. Excellent find!

Boy, that lock down in Warren County is starting to look more suspicious by the minute...

[Shalom]

9. Great Work: Recount Should Focus on These 3 n/t

[enough]

11. kick

[JPJones]

12. Shelby county is odd, too

These counties showed greater than a 10% jump in Bush voters
versus 2000.

County       % jump in Bush vote vs. 2000

Shelby 	        16.18478944
Mercer 	        14.08415595
Van Wert 	13.65009613
Clinton 	13.10048541
Warren 	        12.95162112
Darke 	        12.18515202
Clermont 	11.66074499
Union 	        11.62633804
Auglaize 	11.23030657
Miami 	        11.04210212

[TexasChick]

13. Has there been an investigation yet into this Warren County lockdown

yet? I think a potential whistleblower is there once they make an arrest as to who did this illegal (or nonapproved) lockdown.

[m.standridge]

14. southern Ohio and southern Pluralities

Thanks from here in AR.
You know, southern Ohio is often considered "culturally southern."
There's a reason this might be of some significance this time.
Look at the pre-election polls in four Southern states this time--
Arkansas
North Carolina
Virginia
Louisiana
and not to mention Florida
What do you see? Bush stayed at a Plurality in those southern states, even when he was at lead. He remained in a lead over Kerry all the time, in all of them but AR and FL, where he sometimes trailed Kerrry. Or, he was at a tie.
Why is that significant for southern Ohio?
Don't think I have to spell it out, southern Ohio was close this time. Kerry probably did better than expected. This was due to Edwards being on the ticket. Like any other area of the country, the south tries to reflect "looking after its own" in elections.
Please note, this is not related to racism or civil war or all that. This is just a regional thing. All regions do this. It probably explalins why Iowa and New Mexico weren't closer. Kerry "moved east" with his vp pick, so that hurt in the west and midwest.
Those who "think southern" were more likely to "make a statement" about Edwards being on the ticket--some kind of "thank you", as it were. After all, though it's true Edwards was only VP, Kerry could have picked a non-Southerner for the ticket. So, this registered on some level in southern thinking--and in southern culture thinking, as well. So you aren't off the beam at all to be thinking southern Ohio was closer this time.
That's also true, for what it's worth, about all this media stuff about "Dixiecrats" in some counties in N. Florida. There was some vote pickup for Kerry even in those "Official" recounts down there. John Edwards was born in North Carolina. George W. Bush was born in Connecticut.

[texpatriot2004]

15. The C-Span video of Mr. Arnebeck has him saying that

if the votes were honestly counted Sen. Kerry would win Ohio by about 130,000 votes. I find your link quite wonderful in the light of his words. I mean, what a coincidence. Thanks for posting.

[tandem5]

16. kick

[Senator]

17. "We need 10,000 votes...

...in any county where we can get away with it."

Is all that needed to be said.

But let's skip all this: www.thedeanpeople.com

[Shalom]

18. To the Top of the Charts.....n/t

[Shalom]

19. Kick Again !

[Vote4Kerry]

20. Great article

These counties do need to be investigated