In case you didn't know: Lawsuit will say Bush stole 65,000 OH Kerry votes

[FullCountNotRecount]

I'm certain that many DUers have been hiding because they are so bewildered by the election results. So I repost this:

Cliff Arnebeck (former Republican and McCain supporter) was on Cspan on Thursday, December 3, 2004 saying 65,000 Bush votes mysteriously "migrated" from Kerry's tally meaning Kerry won the election by 11,000 votes before a recount. He was supposed to file on Friday, December 4, 2004.

The lawsuit has been delayed for some reason.

I lost the direct link but check Cspan.org archives for Cliff Arnebeck Alliance for Democracy in past programs (Dec 3).

[ExclamationPoint]

1. hmmm

is that good news or bad news?

[martinolich]

3. if you google "Cliff Arnebeck"...you'll come up with sites. nt.

[stepnw1f]

78. Righty Sites?

Yes I expect them to pre-emptively smear. I'm sure the have a plan. The truth really is hard to avoid though. What a waste of time! Why is the right so blind and dumb?!

[libmeayer]

17. "The lawsuit has been delayed for some reason."

May be he found out he cannot prove it.

[TexasChick]

34. I think I recall him saying something like they had to get all of their

papers in order first, but don't quote me on that. I might be wrong.

[lonestarnot]

41. Reaspn: Had to wait until 15 minutes ago, Vote Certification

[TruthOutDawg]

51. did SOS Blackwell finally certify?

I must have missed it...

[lonestarnot]

80. Yes, but there is something even better on blog

affidavit signed today by whistleblower... if it is true...Civil War here we come!

[TruthOutDawg]

50. The "reason" is because the case isn't "ripe" for filing until

the results are certified by the SOS - which is why Blackwell has delayed as long as he possibly could to certify them. I think they were considering filing it "early" in light and making part of the complaint a claim that Blackwell has been intentionally delaying but didn't want to have to deal with that extra hurdle if they didn't absolutely have to...

but thanks for really trying to understand! ;-(

[AllyCat]

2. Link? Anyone?

I hope this is true, but I have my doubts anything will come of this mess.

[Quakerfriend]

4. Thanks for this

Have been waiting all day to hear about this!;-)

[oscar111]

7. PRESIDENT KERRY, if true

Jesse's lawyer cited the same fact, same number.

118 or so margin,... and if 65 K switch, then 12 K margin FOR KERRY.

[Zan_of_Texas]

5. Re: Arnebeck

They delayed filing because the law says they have to wait until the election is certified by the SOS. Presumably, the SOS will certify the election today, Monday. And, Arnebeck plans to file right after that.

Arnebeck was on the radio on Sunday, live. He sounds good! His action to contest the election is different than the Green/Libertarian one to recount. Sort of parallel, but not the same.

Sunday Monitor, KPFT, Pacifica in Houston.

After headlines, the guests were Arnebeck, James Galbraith (compared Ukraine election reaction to US election reaction -- exit polls?!?!?!), and Wayne Madsen.

Available on archives.

http://www.kpftx.org/archives/kpftsignal/index.php

Sunday Monitor - Dec. 5

[Zan_of_Texas]

6. PS This is a great Ohio map by some diligent researchers in WA.

http://www.votersunite.org/info/mapflyerohio2004.pdf

[sugargoose]

40. Awesome Information BUT

I think it should have REVOTE in the title instead of recount.

[trudyco]

72. Agree - also wasn't it Ohio that had the pollbook swiped

and one county had the democratic office broken into and computers taken days before the election.

Also, the Newspaper article about number of Dead on the rolls.

The bogus FBI terrorist alert is why public was denied access to counting.

Provisional and absentee ballots not listed by precinct for analysis?

Apparent votes recorded to the wrong candidate, like 3rd party candidates, in multi-precinct voting locations

various election officials taking leave of absence or retiring without explanations

Well, I guess the conyers 15 pager probably covers it better.

trudyco

[lonestarnot]

42. GO CLIFFIE GO!

PRESIDENT ELECT KERRY!

[greatscott15]

90. Help with Math?

Even if this 65K votes for Kerry were true, wouldn't bush still be up by 70K votes. I thought I read here the certified total was bush +119K. Thanks in advance for the clarification.

[txindy]

94. The 65K would be taken from B*sh and given to Kerry

That puts Kerry up over B*sh by approx. 12K votes. These aren't 65K votes that they 'found' somewhere, these are 65K votes that were given to B*sh, but rightfully belong to John Kerry.

[pbartch]

8. SOUNDS GOOD TO ME. Let's get some BIG-TIME lawsuits going

so the chicken Main Stream Media will finally start reporting this story.

I bet there are MILLIONS of people that don't even know there is voter fraud that went on in Florida, Ohio and other states.

[libmeayer]

9. Man that is really a convincing argument.

[vpigrad]

10. Please hurry!

We have only until December 13 until the electors are picked by the states!

I'm biting my nails hoping this election won't be stolen like the last! You've given me hope just when I was about to become completely hopeless.

[keepthemhonest]

12. I noticed that when I was looking through

the Judiciary papers served to balckwell that the numbers kept adding up in my head.

19000 here and 400(10 counties) here and whenyou add it up it gets pretty damn close the the 119,000 mark. Look it over and count the numbers and then add to kerry's column subtract from * column and there it is.

[keepthemhonest]

13. duplicate

[thedevilinthedetails]

14. People, everyone needs to start wearing orange

Like in the Ukraine. With the mass demonstrations happening on December 12th (this sunday) at State Capital's and in DC, we need to stand up and act like we care as much as the Ukrainian's showed! ORANGE ORANGE ORANGE, and it's not just a Cingular commercial!

[keepthemhonest]

15. what does the orange signify

change?

[Wickerman]

18. Prison jumpsuits?

:)

:shrug:

[IAMREALITY]

20. LOL

I like that one.

:)

[lthuedk]

30. Um, yeah.....

http://www.light-to-dark.com/fascists_in_fall_colours.html

[TexasChick]

35. LOL! That rocked. Did you get a gander at Chimp's boots? LOL! n/t

[lthuedk]

38. Many thanks. One more...then I'll cease and desist..

http://www.light-to-dark.com/scolding.html

Stephen

[glitch]

37. Hilarious - thanks for posting! nt

[thedevilinthedetails]

19. It's just the color of the opposition party in the Ukraine

I am sure that there are other meanings of the color orange that go way back, but for this time and place in history if we take that color and use it, it's symbolic of what the Ukrainian youth did to get a re-vote. They stood up and basically showed the world what democracy is all about. That's pretty good symbolism!

[keepthemhonest]

21. ok thanks also love the post above

prison jumpsuits,very funny(that's how I felt after the election) like i was in prison.

[eowyn_of_rohan]

23. I don't WANT to wear a Ukraine color!

OK! So they protested. We can do it too! They didnt INVENT protest!

[thedevilinthedetails]

26. Yeah, but

what the heck did we all do in this country after our election? Sure they didn't invent protesting (neither did we) but they sure as heck showed us a thing or two about how to get a new election!

And in light of the post above about the prison garb, I like that better than the Ukraine color too! I do feel like I have been in prison too, so much more appropriate on so many levels...

[eowyn_of_rohan]

31. Well y'all go ahead and wear orange

I am leaning toward black and red

[FogerRox]

60. Orange is

The color of the protesters in Ukraine.

Randi Rhodes has adopted the color, Ribbons anyone--in Ornage?

[hootinholler]

91. Unrelated rant:

No more fucking ribbons! They are really pissing me off, and the root cause has been all the shit * has stirred up!

-Hoot

Ok, I feel better now.

[On Par]

100. Former Florida State Football Players.

[KansDem]

33. But...aren't we supposed to wear red gloves too???

http://redhandsmovement.com/

So, we're suppose to wear orange clothes and red gloves! AGH!, this election fraud protesting isn't very fashionable, is it?

At least we'll be seen after dark...

[HeeBGBz]

97. Eek, KansDem what were we thinking

The Clash

[lonestarnot]

43. ORANGE ONE MY FAV COLORS!

ORANGE ORANGE ORANGE

[Clark2008]

98. Um... Tennessee Vols fans

Already wear orange.

:)

Sorry - blending humor with sports and politics.

[KatieB]

11. Lawsuit was delayed because

if they filed before the vote was certified, the Repugs would file a suit that recount could not be granted before certification. They are just waiting for the start-gun to fire, so don't waste any time.

[OmmmSweetOmmm]

16. It was just reported on CNN that it will be filed tomorrow.

[eowyn_of_rohan]

22. Thank you for telling us

I am getting REALLY worn out from all the ups and downs and the upsets and scares...need to win a battle now.

[jmknapp]

24. Arnebeck has many good points BUT...

This "vote migration" theory is not one of them. There is no there there. If he tries to ride that one into court, he's going to get bushwhacked.

He keeps remarking about the supposed incongruity of an "African American," "Democratic," judicial candidate from "Cleveland" outpolling Kerry in some heavy Bush counties in southern Ohio. What he doesn't seem to realize is that the average voter knows ZERO about an Ohio judicial candidate (not even the party is listed on the ballot) and is more likely to vote based on the last name than anything else. "Let's see, Ellen Connally, a fine Irish lass..."

OF COURSE she is going to outpoll Kerry in Butler County, where 80% of the people know that Kerry is a part of the vast left wing conspiracy and vote accordingly, but nowhere near 80& of them know the first thing about C. Ellen Connally. So she pulls 30-40%.

The briefest look at past election results shows that this pattern is repeated again and again. Tim Black, a Deomcratic judicial candidate in 2000, outpolled Gore in 2000.

Who the hell is on this crack team of statisticians advising Arnebeck and setting him up for this fall?

[trumad]

25. What...and you believe the 2000 vote was clean?

[jhgatiss]

27. Maybe its just like Ken Starr....

We're on a fishing expedition!

[Pepper32]

28. Fraud took place in 2000 also. n/t

[Peace Patriot]

32. Tim Black outpolled...

...Al Gore by how much? 30-40%? That seems ridiculous. Not that many people bother to vote for judges. And Connally had a much better known and well-funded rightwing opponent who would be the likely choice of Bush voters. Maybe some were confused--but that many?

Your reasons for dissing Arnebeck are all just guessing--your own surmises about what voters might do--except for previous vote in '00, and you give no data for that. How about 1996? 1992? Any 30-40 percenters for judges over than the prez vote there?

And, as a following post remarks: You think the 2000 election returns are honest and reliable, and can be used as the sole gauge of what this election should look like?

Don't just throw things out like this. Back them up. It's too important to let sloppy remarks like this stand. We all have to make a judgment of your remarks, and, right now, I figure Arnebeck has done his homework, and knows what the odds are on this screwy judicial vote--and you have given me nothing at all to convince me otherwise.

[jmknapp]

36. Hey, I gave you the race -- you could look it up

But here are some charts showing how the Democratic judicial candidate does better than the Democratic presidential candidate in red counties:




So Black showed the same pattern as Connally.

[jsamuel]

59. the 2 graphs SHOW A 10% SHIFT FROM LAST TIME! HELLO?

And Kerry won the rest of the state by more than Gore too. Yet he did 10% overall worse this time. Look at the x-intercept. It is at 0 in 2000 and at -13 in 2004.

[jsamuel]

63. also, THE 2nd GRAPH IS SHIFED DOWN TO MAKE IT APPEAR THE SAME

Look the top in 1 starts at 50, the second 40.
The bottom in 2 starts at -30, the second -50.

It's all about presentation. And whoever wanted to present these graphs tried to make them say something they are not saying...

[jmknapp]

73. The sameness is the negative slope

That's what's supposed to so extraordinary. But it isn't.

But maybe the argument has moved to the first derivative now? Sure, sure. At first it was "she shouldn;t have gotten more votes." Now it's, OK, it's natural to have gotten more votes, but not that many? Oh oh, but look again, Black had a bigger boost than she did in the reddest of the red counties.

I can see where this is going: if she weighs the same as a duck, we do the election over.

And no, I did not turn you into a newt.

[consciousobjector]

39. I don't think so

One of the counties in question is Van Wert county. There is no way Van Wert county Repugs voted for a black woman for judge! Many of the people who voted for * were given lists of the Repubs running (just like the Dems sent lists of Dems running to people on their lists).

[lonestarnot]

45. Have you read the Complaint?

If not I think you are talking out of your hat?

[jmknapp]

61. It is not unusual for Connally to get more votes than Kerry

Just like Black got more (~5,000) votes than Gore in Butler County and similarly in other high-R counties.

Period.

I can see that data will not sway. Whatever. But the Connally theory is as half-baked as the Florida "Dixiecrat" statistical analysis. All it took was a reference to past elections, and POOF!

[lonestarnot]

77. I mean the COMPLAINT (THE THING THAT INITIATES THE SUIT)

The complaint that has been drafted by Cliffie et all we the people?

[roseBudd]

95. If your reason for why C. Ellen Connaly polled so well in whitieville

SW Ohio Counties of Butler, Warren and Clermont were valid, then she should have polled even better in Cuyahoga where she did spend money and was known. She did not.

[jmknapp]

99. She did poll better in Cuyahoga

than she did in Butler. Just not quite as well as Kerry. It's the flip side of not being known to a large fraction of the voters. The bar in Cuyahoga is set at 62% or whatever . If 20% of the voters don't vote for judge and another 20% don't know who she is and flip a coin, she will be hard pressed to get 62%.

But this is overcomplicating the issue. Again, just look at Tim Black in 2000. Nothing unusual about the Democratic judge polling over the Democratic presidenial candidate in red counties, and polling under in blue counties.

[smartvoter]

29. That's enough to flip it.

[lonestarnot]

44. Flip already done we have to unflip!

[New Earth]

46. um, what's the math here

it says 65,000 votes would flip back to Kerry.

Isn't Kerry behind (supposedly) 119,000 votes?

How does that push Kerry ahead of Bush?

[KeireG]

47. Faye, it's simple math.

Subtract 65,000 from Bush's total and add 65,000 to Kerry's total

[New Earth]

49. but then wouldn't that make Bush still 54,000 ahead of Kerry?

sorry, I am terrible at math, but regardless this is not making sense to me how Kerry could be ahead. :(

[Straight Shooter]

56. Break it down to basics

As an example, let's pretend both men have equal votes to start with:

bush has 200,000 votes
Kerry has 200,000 votes

subtract the illegal 65,000 votes from bush = 135,000 votes to bush

add those 65,000 votes to kerry = 265,000 votes to kerry

Now Kerry is ahead of bush by 130,000 votes

[New Earth]

62. lol oops

thanks. sorry, i'm really talented at a lot of things in life. math is obviously not one of them. lol.

and i'm taking this as a good sign. as soon as i began to read your post here making me understand, my 'election fraud 2004' theme song came on :D

[Straight Shooter]

That's totally okay, lol

I couldn't tell time until I was 9 years old. It was soooo embarrassing. My family didn't want to be seen with me in public :D

[TruthOutDawg]

82. just out of curiosity, what's the song? n/t

[New Earth]

84. Butterflies and Hurricanes by Muse

if you look back a few pages you'll see the post i made with a link to the video/song and the lyrics :)

(apparently, not many people cared that night :( )

[TruthOutDawg]

48. 65K votes flipping means a swing of 130K votes n/t

[New Earth]

55. someone please explain!

how does that make Kerry win by 130,000 votes?

[Straight Shooter]

57. See my post #56, up above a couple posts

Math stinks, doesn't it?

[momzno1]

54. you have to take them away from Chimpy first then add to Kerry

[New Earth]

58. yes, but it's only 65,000 votes!!!!

where are people getting 130,000???

[Straight Shooter]

64. Faye, the END RESULT is a SPREAD of 130,000 votes

That's how much it widens the distance between them, a plus 65 to Kerry and a minus 65 to bush.

See my post #56.

If you have $100, and I have $100, then I take $65 from you, what is the result? You will have $35 and I will have $165.

In other words, the end result is that transferring $65 from you to me makes me $130 ahead of you.

Now, you owe me $65 for this consultation ;)

[New Earth]

66. lol thanks

i hate math dammit!!!!!

[googly]

85. Its the left side of women's brain that is different from us men hehe

[New Earth]

86. pffftttt

:P

[OmmmSweetOmmm]

74. According to Arnebeck, this doesn't take into account the

Provisional, absentee or "spoiled" ballots. Just cast votes that "migrated" from Kerry to Bush. In essence, Kerry can wind up with 200,000+ more votes than Bush.

[meganmonkey]

67. If Bush gets 65,000 votes taken away from his numbers

and they are then put in Kerry's column.

Think of it as a 2 step process:

When they are taken away from Bush, Bush's lead shrinks by 65,000 votes.
Then, they are given to Kerry, so Bush's lead shrinks by ANOTHER 65,000 (because Kerry's total goes up).

That would put Kerry over the top.

[buzzard]

69. Faye

If you take away 65,000 votes from Bush his total is reduced by 65,000, then add these to Kerry, his total goes up by 65,000. ie 2 times 65,000 equals 130,000.

[New Earth]

70. lol i know now thanks

god i feel so dumb now. lol

[buzzard]

71. You make me laugh every day don't feel bad.

[New Earth]

75. me?

how come :(

[Straight Shooter]

79. I think that was a compliment

You have some great posts and a wry sense of humor :)

[New Earth]

81. doh

:crazy:


^i meant to say thank you. :D

[buzzard]

87. I like your sense of humour and you are never nasty.

[New Earth]

88. aww thanks

that's funny, cuz earlier today i was wondering how i come off to people here, cuz most of the time i type what comes to mind first and just hit 'post message' and i have no idea wtf i just said :shrug:

[WillJP]

52. Don't the electors meet a week from

this Wednesday?

Wouldn't they have to get a change before then?

[intheflow]

68. Hi WillJP.

Check out this link to a DU thread that addresses your concerns:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x119337

Welcome to DU.

[Straight Shooter]

53. Arnebeck's reputation will be mud if he cannot present evidence

He is claiming evidence for the migration of votes, not just theory, not speculation. What has he to gain by lying? Nothing that I have discovered yet. Notoriety? That's a flash in the pan these days, and not worth the risk of incurring the wrath of bush, et al.

I watched him on C-span and was impressed with his unflappability. He didn't act like someone who is trying to conduct a three-ring circus, not at all. He comes across as very credible.

[mostly_lurking]

76. Do you know what the evidence might be?

All I have heard so far is irregularity of voting patterns between Kerry and Connally.

[roseBudd]

96. Arnebeck is also the lawyer who collected videotaped sworn affidavits

of voter suppression.

[mostly_lurking]

102. I hope he has more than that

The problem with voter suppression is it can't be shown to have affected the outcome. This certainly isn't the "65,000 vote switch" that has been alluded to.

[lonestarnot]

83. Wonder if the guy who signed release on Bradblog.com

is involved in Cliffie the lawyer's suit? Anyone know? Can't get to Bradblog.com tooooooooooo busy....can't wait to check it out!

[Laura PourMeADrink]

65. kick - Thanks FCNR - But I don;t get it If,,,,

What you saying is so big. If accepted, it means he wins Ohio, and wins the election. So why is everyone not screaming??

[pilgrimsoul]

89. Because the lawsuit hasn't been filed yet...

and we haven't seen the Complaint and the supporting evidence. I'm cautiously optimistic, but am gonna have to see something solid before jumping wholeheartedly onto this bandwagon. I hope to hell Arnebeck has something solid because if he doesn't, it's really going to give the party a black eye.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

92. Yes, and there's another post going about how the Ohio

recount can't be legitimate -- due to timing...Surely between this, and Madsen we'll luck out

[chrisclub]

93. link to downloadable Arnebeck cspan video file?

anyone have it?, not the streamer, but a mpeg or mov file.

[corbett]

101. Cliff Arnebeck On Washington Journal 12/2

It runs just under 30 minutes and is QUITE enjoyable (Real format only):

rtsp://video.c-span.org/project/c04/c04_wj120204_arnebeck.rm

[LiberalAndProud]

103. Did he also say

that he doesn't expect to change the outcome? I listened, but I may remember badly.

He also said that we must PROTEST in the streets.

Kerry cannot tell us to march.
Arnebeck TRIED to tell us to march.
Jesse is there to lead the march.

We are not marching. I am not marching and I am ashamed.