THIS ONE GRAPH TELLS THE STORY- WILLIE SUTTON WOULD BE PROUD

[TruthIsAll]

The title of the graph should be self-explanatory to those familiar with polling lingo.

For those of you who have never heard of Willie Sutton, he was involved in banking. Made a great living in it his whole career. He was a real numbers guy.

For those who are not, it's very simple, really. Look above the 2% line. You will see the two states in which Kerry's vote tallies exceeded the Exit poll Margin of Error (MOE). Very suspicious. Maybe Kerry was trying to steal Kansas.
<sarcasm off>.

Now look below the -2% line. You will see that there were 23 states in which Bush's vote tallies exceeded his exit polling MOE. Looks very suspicious to me, as it does to virtually everyone else, except die-hard Bush supporters.

Why do I use 2% for the MOE? As I have stated numerous times, Exit Polls have proven to be more than twice as accurate as standard, pre-election polls (which usually have a 3% MOE, depending on sample size).

Of course, there will be those who will reply quickly to this thread, as is their wont, with possible reasons for these discrepancies:

-Women voted earlier in the day than men. That's because few women work.
-Republicans are shy and would not talk to the exit pollsters.
-Democrats were very proud of their vote and very anxious to talk.
-Republicans work late. That's why they vote late.
-Exit polls are always off. They are used for entertainment purposes only.

You get the idea.

[New Earth]

1. if i had any idea how to read that

i'd probably tell you that you're right.

[bemis12]

3. Good job!!!!

The ones for Bush beyond the MOE were originally 16, then they were 22, now they're 23!!!

Those bastards are STILL stealing the election! In a week 30 of these will be outside the MOE!

[TruthIsAll]

4. Now you finally get it.

.

[bemis12]

6. I get that

you've changed the number beyond the MOE twice now. Not sure why you're doing that, but it's your graph.

Can't wait to see the one in a week!

[TruthIsAll]

16. Here's a similar graph which shows the "Red-shift"

Here's a similar graph which shows the "Red-shift" (from Kerry to Bush) of the exit polls to the vote tallies.

[Lone Pawn]

2. It still doesn't preclude systematic error...

say, if for some reason, Kerry voters were more likely to respond to optional exit polls than Bush voters.

Not saying that's what happened, but as time goes on, our case has to get more and more airtight.

[TruthIsAll]

5. Keep drinking the Kool-aid. How does it taste?

.

[Lone Pawn]

13. I'm saying you need to address possible holes in the logic

Otherwise they will, and we'll lose all credibility on this.
Truth doesn't matter. What matters is making people believe the truth. And you can't do that without thinking like they do too.

[TruthIsAll]

17. How do you address ludicrous straw men? With logic?

I addressed your question with a little sarcasm I inserted after I read your reply. Hope you didn't mind.

No, we have bigger fish to fry. Why waste our energies on the ditto-heads? They are incapable of looking at anything with an open mind.
That's why they're Bush-bots, ditto-heads, freepers, true-believers, etc. By definition.

They would find an excuse for Bush if he dropped an H-bomb on Massachusetts.

It's those with at least a modicum of open-mindedness and intelligence that we must convince. Hopefully, they will give us the critical mass we need.

[jsamuel]

10. That's what they said in the Ukraine...

Riiiight...

[truehawk]

7. I like this one of Joe Knapp's

[truehawk]

12. And this one

[Peace Patriot]

8. Yeah...

...it needs more explanation. What are the numbers from 3 to minus 6 down the side (Margin of Error?--I'm just guessing.) And I know people get really confused about "favoring Bush" or "redshift" to Bush. Spell out acronyms (like MOE), or put a legend. Briefly explain about exit polls, etc. Design it for the totally uninformed. (You're going to have a lot of those in the next couple of weeks!)

[meatsack]

9. Could you thicken up the '0' line

If you thickened up the '0' line, I think the visual impact would be greater. With all the lines the same thickness, the eye will just pick the physical middle line, and not the actual '0' line, to make comparisons from. Alternatively (or maybe even in addition) you could add more lines for a greater Kerry swing, even though there is no data to plot on them, so that the imbalance is a little clearer.

[americanwhothinks]

11. i'd love to see the voting machine types/paper trail factor in there, too!

[Old and In the Way]

14. Also, maybe change

the point legend to reflect Kerry or a Bush state. I think that will punch up the insight on what you are saying.

[TruthIsAll]

15. I added explanations in the text. That should suffice.

I appreciate all the suggestions, but this was done in Excel as a scatter chart. Not much could else can be done with it.

I included another Red Shift graph for comparison in a reply post.