Mitofsky's not coming to the party w/ raw exit poll data..... BUT!

[VTGold]

Keith Olberman just said that Mitofsky is not coming and not sending any of his raw exit poll data because it is "proprietary" - sounds like Diebold huh? Unreal.

BUT!

On the US Department of State site - I found this very cool Foreign Press Briefing in NY from October 26 2004 where they discuss the coming exit poll strategy and proclaim how sure they are that it will be reliable - here is the cool bit - I will paste the link below:

-----------------------
QUESTION: This year, how much can we trust exit polls? Is it going to be a little bit different from four years ago?

MR. CARROLL: It's going to be better. I'll tell you why it's going to be better. There's a guy named Warren Mitofsky who is doing all the exit polls. He's in charge of the whole shebang. Now, last time around if you'll recall, we had the Voter News Service, which was sort of a specialized setup just for the election. The Associated Press is doing it this time -- the actual count.

Warren -- he and I talked after the last election. Warren was a -- oh, a foe of the people who did it last time. And he told me what happened in Florida. He said that: (a) the sample precincts were a little peculiar in his view; but (b) they were told -- and look, all of you guys have done this -- at something like about 2 o'clock in the morning, they had something like 96 percent of the vote in. I mean, how many times have you written a story when you had 96 percent of the vote? I've written stories with 30, 40, you know, where you know what's going to happen, right? They were told 96 percent of the vote was in. But 50,000 were out. They did their computer stuff and said, okay, it's going to be Gore.

But there weren't 50,000 out. There were 80,000 out. And don't forget, it was close enough that that made a difference. That was what tilted it. A lot of that extra 30 was in western Florida. So this time: (a) they've got a real pro in Mitofsky doing it; (b) they don't want another 2000. And so I'll guarantee you that if an exit poll is screwed up someplace, it won't be screwed up in Florida. I'll guarantee it. Because, you know, you remember what happened in the off-year election. The 2-years ago, the exit polls didn't work. Their computers went down. It was screwed up. It didn't work. This year -- I'd bet my paycheck on it -- it'll work.

QUESTION: And again, Mitofsky is with AP?

MR. CARROLL: No, Mitofsky is with Mitofsky.

QUESTION: Okay.

MR. CARROLL: He's got a -- I've forgotten what they call it. I think he's called something like Mitofsky, International, or something like that. He's a genius at polling, and I'd put my money on him.
-------------------------

http://fpc.state.gov/fpc/37918.htm

[splat]

1. So at what point will it be subpoenaed? n/t

[Twist_U_Up]

3. who has the power ?

can Conyers ?

[bmoney07]

36. I am with you

I hope Conyers and his boys have the power to get that data!

[Quakerfriend]

2. Great find!

What I just heard on KO was that Mitofsky said in a letter to Conyers that he "is not at liberty to release them (ie, exit polls)".
And, I believe he also said that that was the sole right of the TV stations. Unbelievable!!

[The Backlash Cometh]

4. Not at liberty? Is he subject to a lockdown?

[rodeodance]

5. discussion on another also about this

http://www.democraticunderground.com/

discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=125227&mesg_id=125227

[bemis12]

7. Maybe?

The news organizations that paid for it own the data?

[intelle]

6. This WAS a great find!

Was wondering why Keith didn't mention that Blackwell won't be attending either.

I thought maybe he didn't know that.

[RaulVB]

8. This is GREAT find!

Mitofsky is is burnt.

I wonder how are they going to lie their way out...

[DoYouEverWonder]

9. "the sample precincts were a little peculiar in his view"

I'd like to hear what he considers peculiar? Precincts that have too many DEMS?

I would love to get Mitofsky's list of precincts. I think that it would tell us a lot about his 'methods'.

I do know that in my county, he only went to one precinct. I happen to live in a Democratic stronghold, but he picked one of the most conservative precincts he could find. I wonder how many of his other precincts were 'slanted'?

[sabra]

27. Here's a precinct count...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=125913&mesg_id=125913

But not which ones...

[DoYouEverWonder]

29. Did you know they don't even ask you who you voted for?

I don't know how it was done in the past, but this poll asks a list of 20 questions but they do not ask who did you vote for.

In regards to how he selected the precincts to sample, I would not be surprised if the same bias that was used in Alachua Co was used in the other precincts that he selected.

From the link you gave me it says he polled 55 precincts in FL. That is not much of a cross section in a big and diverse state like FL and it would be easy to try to massage the data by picking precincts that leaned one way or another.

However, if he did pick mostly conservative precincts, then Kerry must have been doing incredibly well.

[sabra]

30. It seems like they did ask...

http://www.exit-poll.net/election-night/Final_State_Questionnaires.pdf

Question C.

[DoYouEverWonder]

31. Thanks for the info, I had heard otherwise

A SOE told me that she heard they did not ask that question and it was one of her reasons for doubting the validity of the poll.

[Old and In the Way]

10. So why didn't the DNC or Kerry's campaign subscribe to the service?

This really bothers me. Why wouldn't they want direct access to the raw data?

[IndyOp]

12. I think in the future they will subscribe to the service...

this time out they seemed to be relying on leaks of early polls.

It is well past time to stop 'having faith' in the honesty of 'the system'.

I think in future all candidates will also file before the election to have all machines impounded immediately after the polls close.

:argh:

[Old and In the Way]

14. We've known about this since 2000 and then 2002.

I find it inconceivable that the Democrats would not be prepared for more of the same. Are they that naive, that stupid, or that in cahoots with the Republicans? Any of the answers is hardly reassuring.

[IndyOp]

11. If we want exit polls released why not tug on the weak link?

MSNBC - in a stunning act of independence - revised their exit poll numbers for Latinos several days ago. The initial results that MSNBC (and others) released indicated that 44% of Latinos/Latinas voted for Bush. MSNBC, recognizing that rural Latinos had been oversampled, revised their estimate -- now stating that 40% of Latinos voted for Bush.

My point? MSNBC (and other networks) have some or most of the data -- they are under contract with Mitofsky & Edison International -- but leaks can happen...

Why not push MSNBC - given that they have already revealed something about one important flaw in the data?

:shrug:

[skids]

13. Excellent find.

Now exactly where do we cram it to cause the most pain?

[ClassWarrior]

15. The Judiciary Committee wants our question for tomorrow!!!

Please send this State Dept. information here:

http://www.house.gov/judiciary_democrats/contact.html

NGU.

[Straight Shooter]

16. Whoa. I don't know how you did it, but major props to you

Excellent find. Let's see if Mitofksy's reputation is solid or just hot air when it comes down to the nitty-gritty.

Anyone want to send this to Keith O.? [e-mail]

And of course Cliff Arnebeck, just in case. [e-mail]

:toast:

[VTGold]

17. I sent it to Keith - didn't think of Cliff - has someone done it?

[jamboi]

18. Go for it! n/t

[splat]

19. NBC subscribed to the exit polls. KO should have them

http://www.exit-poll.net/pool.html

ABC, AP, CBS, CNN, Fox, and NBC, have created the National Election Pool to provide tabulated vote counts and exit poll surveys for the 2004 major presidential primaries and the November general election.

These six major news organization, in a joint decision, have appointed Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International as the sole provider of exit polls for the most important political races of 2004. The AP will tally the vote

Keith should be able release them.

[skids]

20. Mitofsky's a crack pollster. On crack that is.

Kick and this:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=125913&mesg_id=126143

[Karenca]

21. this is very interesting.thank you! nt

[rehema]

22. Did anyone elese read that on the night of election

CNN reported that the place where most MSM get their exit polls, the server of the website went down around midnight preventing access to the data. It was something to that effect.

[buddysmellgood]

23. I SAW the numbers change on CNN. I remember telling my wife how

the number didn't make sense. The next thing you know, they averaged in the results and made it look like the polls showed a dubya win.

[VTGold]

26. Yeah, I can't understand why the pollsters were so quick...

... to say that the polling was wrong. If people don't have faith in them - aren't they out of business?

[buddysmellgood]

24. This is big. You are my hero.

[texpatriot2004]

25. Gee, what's Mitofsky got to hide?

Mitofsky is hiding something and he doesn't want to share. How rude.

[BR_Parkway]

39. Maybe the rationale behind why certain questions were only

asked in certain states.

http://www.exit-poll.net/election-night/Final_State_Questionnaires.pdf


Of the 10 states polled that had gay marriage amendments, 9 also asked if people were born-again or evengelical and only 6 asked if they voted for moral values.

But it was still a big issue to find out in 13 other states if you were born again - and in 35 states to ask if Moral Values was the big reason you were voting.

With all those heavy, important issues, they only found it necessary to ask people in 7 states if they thought their vote would be counted accurately? Did anyone else see tons of news reports before the election that potential voters in Calif, Georgia, Louisiana, Maryland, Ohio and Washington state were very concerned that their votes wouldn't be counted accurately? I don't recall it. Florida, it was an obvious question given 2000.

Gay Born Moral Vote Color
Marriage Again Values Count
Accurately

AL X
AK X X
AZ X
AR X X X
CA X X KERRY
CO X X
CT KERRY
DE KERRY
FL X X
GA X X X X
GU
HI KERRY
ID X
IL X KERRY
IN X X
IA X X
KS X
KY X X X
LA X X X
ME X KERRY
MD X X KERRY
MA X KERRY
MI X X X KERRY
MN X KERRY
MS X X
MO X X
MT X X
NE X X
NV X
NH X KERRY
NJ X KERRY
NM X
NY X KERRY
NC X X
ND X
OH X X X X
OK X X X
PA X KERRY
RI KERRY
SC X X
SD X
TN X X
TX
UT X
VT X KERRY
VA X
WA X X KERRY
WV X X
WI X KERRY
WY


I'd be glad to clean up that table if I knew how.

[texpatriot2004]

42. Yes, I am sure he's hiding that and my guess is there's alot more

What you posted is quite interesting. "Proprietary" my ass Mr. Mitofsky.

[Peace Patriot]

28. VTGold, I hope you took screen shots...

...of that government web site.

[VTGold]

35. I did! It could all be a dream tomorrow!

[electropop]

32. Beautiful! Send it to Olbermann! n/t

[Fly by night]

33. My letter to Mitofsky, Edison and the MSM (mostly shit media)

After more than a month of waiting for an answer to my earlier questions regarding the "odd" exit poll/"reported" vote disconnect and hearing nothing from any of you, I have a brief follow-up note.

In less than one hour, the House Judiciary Committee will begin hearings on the theft of the 2004 election. The millions of us who are keeping track of this coup, and the growing efforts to overturn it, are aware that Mitofsky was invited to attend the hearing and to turn over the raw (untampered-with) exit poll results. We are also aware that he refused, saying that such information is "proprietary".

I have three questions for all of you:

1) Is money more important than our country? (That's probably a rhetorical question for all of you.)

2) What is it that all of you (you formerly respected researchers and you news (sic) organizations) have to hide?

3) If Mitofsky can release the raw exit poll data if and when one of his "clients" (that's you, MSM*) gives him permission to, what are you waiting for? Whichever one of the major news organizations that steps forward and approves the release of the raw exit poll data to the House Judiciary Committee will vault to the head of the line of the MSM* and might even regain some credibility and respect from the American people, who wonder at the continued silence (and continuous Fox-like spin) that you have made us suffer through since Bush stole his second election. (For me, I'm in favor of "two strikes and you're out".)

So get to the House Judiciary Committee hearing -- you have less than a half hour to be present for the first shots of the second American revolution. And release the goddamn raw exit poll results. Or go buy a one-way ticket to Argentina -- the ghosts of your fellow Nazis await you.

We're watching, and waiting, for one of you to do the next right thing. And that's not continuing to protect those faux leaders, smeared in moldy "moral values" lard, who want to hasten the Rapture. Living in America is already heaven on earth, and it's worth protecting.

Is there anyone home who cares?

PS. I am told that "MSM" stands for mainstream media. For me, it looks like "mostly shit media".

[electropop]

34. Excellent n/t

[VTGold]

37. I've sent it to Olbermann, Arnebeck and the Democratic Judiciary n/t

[goldengreek]

38. Reminds me of an old commercial for the Snickers bar...

No matter how you chop it, it comes up peanuts.

No matter how you run the exit poll, it comes up Democrat!

[merh]

40. Kick

:kick:

[Melissa G]

41. kICK!

[senegal1]

43. I remember reading somewhere that the polling group who

actually took the polls may have had only 5000 around the US actually talking to individuals while in the past pollsters usually had 30,000. This could be part of the reason why no one is too quick to let this stuff out. The company who conducted the poll was different from company analyzing the polling data. I think I read that on the AP site and somewhere else.