One thing we REALLY need is the raw exit poll data. I have no idea how

[karlrschneider]

or from where to get it, but this information is crucial. Not sure what media paid for it, if we can find out, maybe popular pressure could persuade (CBS? or ??) to produce it? There -might- be some kind of way to get it by means of a class-action suit but that would take years...
Do we know for sure just who paid for the info?

[kuozzman]

1. What do you mean by the "raw data"?

I have saved some info you might want, let me find it......

[karlrschneider]

2. Well, I mean the figures that were compiled before the "adjustments"...

I wasn't aware they were publicly available...if you have the poop, great! :D

[kuozzman]

5. A few week ago, I was searching through media releases in LesisNexis

and there was a release for each state regarding the exit polls. It gave a brief description and also some data, like the number of people polled, etc. and some conclusions.

However, I've had to delete everything on my computer since then and thought I saved all documents, including those, but am having trouble finding it. I'll keep looking.

[karlrschneider]

10. I know how big a pain that is...have had to re-format many times w/o

recent backups. And I fix 'puters for a living, shouldn't be so damn cavalier. :eyes:
Hope you didn't lose important stuff.

[sabra]

3. I read some where that PDF files were sent to

the subscribers of the exit polls. Some on has to have those files sitting on their hard drives somewhere...

[Carolab]

4. I e-mailed KO

and suggested he request them, since MSNBC is a subscriber

[karlrschneider]

7. Good idea! He ought to have access....thanks!

:toast:

[karlrschneider]

6. I don't doubt that, but to whom, when, and how to get them?

ISTR there were 3 sets...from something like 4 pm, 8 pm & midnite...
not sure about the times, but they "changed" mysteriously according to what I've read...but I have yet to see the actual numbers. I understand that Mitofsky (sp?) probably has no legal obligation to release the data since he was fulfilling a contract, but the info is out there somewhere and I for one would like to see the whole bag.

[november3rd]

8. Conyers/Mitofsky correspondence here

links

[karlrschneider]

12. Link is broke, I know about Conyers asking for data...

...

[merh]

19. Media Blast to all media warlords that they release the raw

data or authorize Mitofsky to release the data. He claims he can't because it is not his property, he did the polling for the media, so blast them and ask them what the F they are hiding!

[stirringstill]

9. After Bush II Takes the Throne In Jan.

I read that we will not be seeing the RAW DATA for three months. It wouldn't surprise me if they ever release it. I get the impression from Mitofsky that the data is not his to release. I'm just guessing, but if there were a good explanation for the discrepancy, they would have released them given the demand.

[sabra]

14. The data will be available here in a few months...

http://www.ropercenter.uconn.edu/elect_2004/

[thanatonautos]

11. Mitofsky, in his letter to the Judiciary

saying he would not attend the House Judiciary forum
today, also said he was not free to provide
the raw exit poll data, since the information
was proprietary and effectively the property of
the subscribers.

Thus, it looks to me like legal action would be required
in order to get at this data, unless the MSM networks
could be pressured to release the data in the public
interest. (Fat chance that the networks would
do anything at all in the interests of the public.)

[karlrschneider]

13. He very well could be right, that's why I was fishing around for another

source. Someone suggested K Olbermann might be a possibility, I guess we'll see. I emailed him about it. Welcome to DU anyway. :D :toast:

[kuozzman]

15. Found it, I think

Except I don't see the tally for who they voted for? Just other data.....Sorry it's not neater, I can't reformat the text where it was, just copy/paste....Is this what you wanted??

Copyright 2004 Associated Press
All Rights Reserved
The Associated Press
These materials may not be republished without the express written consent of The Associated Press
November 3, 2004, Wednesday, BC cycle
SECTION: Political News
LENGTH: 710 words
HEADLINE: Exit poll data from the Ohio election for president
BYLINE: By The Associated Press
BODY:
Highlights of an exit poll in the Ohio election Tuesday for president. Survey conducted for The Associated Press and television networks by Edison Media Research/Mitofsky International among 2,020 voters statewide. Sampling error margin plus or minus 3 percentage points for overall sample, larger for subgroups. Numbers may not add to 100 due to rounding or because some respondents skipped a question; dashes indicate insufficient data for statistical reliability. Percentages are final.

Order of responses: All; Kerry; Bush
Are you:
Male;47;47;52
Female;53;50;50

Are you:
White;86;44;56
Black;10;84;16
Hispanic/Latino;3;65;35
Asian;1;-;-
Other;1;-;-

AGE (60 and over)
18-29;21;56;42
30-44;30;47;52
45-59;29;48;52
60 or over;20;43;57

2003 total family income:
Under $15,000;7;71;29
$15,000-$29,999;16;63;37
$30,000-$49,999;25;50;49
$50,000-$74,999;22;41;58
$75,000-$99,999;15;45;55
$100,000-$149,999;9;42;58
$150,000-$199,999;4;37;63
$200,000 or more;2;-;-

Voter is union member:
Yes;17;60;39
No;83;46;53

What was the last grade of school you completed?
Did not complete high school;4;58;42
High school graduate;30;51;49
Some college or associate degree;29;48;52
College graduate;25;45;55
Postgraduate study;13;49;51

No matter how you voted today, do you usually think of yourself as a:
Democrat;35;90;9
Republican;40;6;94
Independent or something else;25;59;40

On most political matters, do you consider yourself:
Liberal;19;85;14
Moderate;47;59;41
Conservative;34;13;87

Is this the first time you have ever voted?
Yes;15;54;46
No;85;47;5

Religion, combined Protestant and other Christian.
Protestant/Other Christian;57;44;56
Catholic;26;44;55
Jewish;1;-;-
Something else;6;72;26
None;10;69;29

How often do you attend religious services?
More than once a week;14;31;69
Once a week;26;36;64
A few times a month;15;50;50
A few times a year;28;60;40
Never;14;63;35

Are you currently married?
Yes;62;41;59
No;38;62;38

When did you finally decide for whom to vote in the presidential election?
Just today;5;61;39
In the last three days;4;64;36
Sometime last week;3;-;-
During the last month;11;61;36
Before that;78;45;55

Was your vote for president mainly:
For your candidate;71;40;59
Against his opponent;25;68;31

Do you think the condition of Ohio's economy is:
Excellent;3;-;-
Good;38;13;86
Not so good;38;63;36
Poor;19;90;10

Which ONE issue mattered most in deciding how you voted for president? (Check only one)
Taxes;6;38;62
Education;5;66;32
Iraq;13;72;28
Terrorism;17;10;90
Economy/Jobs;24;83;17
Moral values;23;14;85
Health care;5;75;25

Which ONE candidate quality mattered most in deciding how you voted for president? (Check only one)
He cares about people like me;12;68;32
He has strong religious faith;10;5;95
He is honest and trustworthy;11;26;74
He is a strong leader;19;13;87
He is intelligent;7;93;7
He will bring about needed change;24;93;6
He has clear stands on the issues;13;20;79

Compared to four years ago, is the country:
Safer from terrorism;58;22;78
Less safe from terrorism;39;85;14

How confident are you that votes in your state will be counted accurately?
Very confident;41;30;69
Somewhat confident;47;55;45
Not very confident;9;79;21
Not at all confident;3;-;-

How do you feel about the U.S. decision to go to war with Iraq?
Strongly approve;30;9;91
Somewhat approve;26;25;74
Somewhat disapprove;15;78;22
Strongly disapprove;27;96;3

Compared to four years ago, is your family's financial situation:
Better today;29;13;87
Worse today;32;85;15
About the same;37;45;55

LOAD-DATE: November 4, 2004

[kuozzman]

16. Wonder how this would look today?

How confident are you that votes in your state will be counted accurately?
All Kerry Bush
Very confident 41% 30% 69%
Somewhat confident 47% 55% 45%
Not very confident 9% 79% 21%
Not at all confident 3% - -

If taken today???

All Kerry Bush
Very confident 1% 50% 50%
Somewhat confident 3% 55% 45%
Not very confident 3% 79% 21%
Not at all confident 93% 65% 35%

[thanatonautos]

23. This is nice ... it's a better summary than I've seen most places.

But I think that the data karlschneider is interested in (me, too)
would be more extensive. There is surely much more detailed
information broken down at least by voting precinct and time
that's available to Edison/Mitofsky and the networks.

I imagine the exit pollsters probably report in what they're
finding once an hour or so, including various ancillary data
like how many are refusing to answer, and other parameters
of interest.

To interpret what happened with the exit polls on election
night we would really like to have all the data at the lowest
possible level, rather than summarized for a whole state, so
that it could be re-analyzed independently. One would also
like to know what, precisely the firms did to the raw data
in order to produce their final election night results.

For example, there were rumours that actual returns were
used in order to correct the exit polls ... which seems
completely insane methodology to me, if it's true.

[thanatonautos]

24. Thanks for the welcome! n/t

[Patty Diana]

17. here's the link

Democratic Underground Forums - Kerry winning Exit Polls - FRAUD LOOKS PROBABLE

[karlrschneider]

18. Hi Patty, welcome. There's no link there but I'll do a search.

:toast:

[Patty Diana]

22. I think I've got it now CNN before & after

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x1293911

[capi888]

20. One of the Attorney's said he captured the raw exit polls...

I think it was the statitician Freeman, for Arnebeck that said the closest he could get was capturing the raw votes before they changed them.

[BrotherBuzz]

21. Republicans would just hire some shady 'plumbers'

No idea where I'm going with that idea other than to vent. :eyes:

[skids]

25. steal it? :-)

It's gotta be on a computer someplace :-)