The original post 7 pm exit polls - pre 12 rewieghting -give Kerry win

[papau]

As posted at http://exitpollz.org
(THANKS to [e-mail])

The "Original" 2004 election FULL end-of-day polls that were available on media sites on Nov.2 from about 7 p.m as the "exit-polls", and before the later 1.30 a.m. updates made to fit the "real vote".

Colorado Presidential exit-poll (html)

Number of respondents 2505
Time of Weighting: 11/02/2004 9:26 pm
Kerry
Bush
Expected result:
49.1%
50.9%
Declared result:
47.3%
52.7%


Florida Presidential exit-poll
Number of respondents 2826
Time of Weighting: not indicated
Figures published on CNN indicating that they were "weighted".
Kerry
Bush
Expected result:
49.9%
50.1%
Declared result:
48.7%
51.3%


· Ohio Presidential exit-poll
Number of respondents 1963
Time of Publication: 11/02/2004 7:32pm
Time of Weighting: not indicated.
Figures published on CNN indicating that they were weighted.
Kerry
Bush
Expected result:
52.1%
47.9%
Declared result:
48.8%
51.2%


Compare how accurate the senatorial exit polls below were …

· Colorado Senatorial exit-poll
Number of respondents 2491
Time of Weighting: 11/02/2004 9:26 pm
Salz (D)
Coor (R.)
Expected result:
52.2%
47.8%
Declared result:
52.2%
47.8%
Discrepancy: None! Spot on!

Wisconsin Senatorial exit-poll
Number of respondents 2157
Time of Weighting: 11/02/2004 8:55 pm
Fein (D)
Mich (R.)
Expected result:
56.0%
44.0%
Declared result:
56.6%
44.4%
Discrepancy: Almost none! + 0.6% to Fein(D)

per the site: the figures above are derived from the linked exit poll documents and are consistent with Complete US Exit Poll Data Confirms Net Suspicions which shows similar discrepancies between exit-poll data and the declared result in MI, MN, NE, NV, NH, NM, PA, WI, IA.

[Wordie]

1. Isn't it just possible that some of the polls had earlier data added in,

and some of them did not at any given time. If there was data on absentee ballots, for instance, when was that added to the weighting? That is something that could explain some of the discrepancies.

[papau]

2. this is after the polls closed and all data was taken- no "late white male

surge" to pretend made the change.

But of course uncounted absentee would be counted later - but when that happens as in Ohio, Kerry is the one who gains on Bush.

[Wordie]

4. I don't mean more raw data added in, I mean the weighting added in. n/t

[papau]

3. DUPE

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x134054