Is Cliff Arnebeck's evidence open and shut? What are the chances a....

[EMunster]

Republican judge is going to invalidate Ohio's presidential election based on the "professional opinion" of a statistician (Phillips' phrase before everyone of his conclusions).

I'm not trying to be a downer, just want to guage reality. If there's not a general uproar over the irregularities -- and we only have a minor one right now -- it'll take one helluva courageous judge to void the Ohio election.

Again, is there enough to convince a republican judge to take the dramatic action we're hoping for?


link to phillip's analysis:
http://web.northnet.org/minstrel/alpage.htm

[Stand and Fight]

1. Nope.

At least not with what they've put on the table publicly. However, Cliff Arnebeck strikes me as a deeply introspective intelligent man. And I don't think he would say he has hard evidence of fraud unless he actually does. Furthermore, it would not be in the interests of his lawsuit to reveal everything beforehand. If he has anything concrete -- it should prove to be a trump card to the public and even to us Duers here. If however, all he has is statistical evidence, the Republican scum will not take the courageous, truly democratic step, and deem the Ohio election invalid.

[lonestarnot]

3. When is he filing?

What is he waiting on? This has to do with some strategy, I know, but help me figure it out...

[pgh_dem]

8. no news on http://www.thealliancefordemocracy.org/news.html

since notice that they'd file on Wednesday.
It's now Friday and I haven't seen anything to indicate it will be filed today...anybody else?

[TexasChick]

9. He is definitely running out of time. It is making me very nervous! The

OH electors meet this Monday, the 13th! Hurry, Cliff!

[understandinglife]

11. forgive me for some totally non-expert speculation...

....but, given the fact that Mr Arnebeck and Mr Bonifaz evidence not one bit of foolishness, glitz or lack of substance in their prior actions, one might suspect the following scenario:

1. ensure anticipation;
2. wait until markets close on Friday, 10 Dec 2004, 4pm EST;
3. file suit(s)in whichever venue(s) before cob on Friday, 10 Dec 2004, i.e., probably between 4pm EST and 5pm EST;
4. own all the news cycles through the weekend, including talking-head stuff on Sunday (stuff I stopped watching years ago);
5. place the OH electoral process in a real jam on Monday, 13 Dec 2004;
6. go from there.

Please, note my subject-line disclaimer -- I'm offering non-expert, non-insider, speculation and am having a very rare moment of levity with all of you in the midst of all the serious stuff we are each doing to try to save our American franchise of democracy.

Peace.

"When Did Bush Know?"

[TexasChick]

12. Nope, understandinglife! I welcome your comments wholeheartedly!

You are very insightful and I love your posts! Thanks! This does seem like a likely scenario! :hug:

[understandinglife]

13. Thank you, and, heck, it'll add a little spice to the 4pm -- 5pm ESt...

....interval this afternoon. Nothing happens; well, I'll have just proved for the zillionth+1 time in my life that I should leave the prophecy-stuff to others ;-)

Peace.

"When Did Bush Know?" -- now that's a question I really want answered!!

[zann725]

20. Yeah, I thought that too...waiting 'til Friday.

Also, as to what Arnebeck's chances are in Ohio court?
He said he's spent the last few years IN Ohio working on a case about how illegal corporate funds were used to fund 'stacking' the Supreme Court in Ohio. So I definitely think Arnebeck has more than enough 'stuff' on the judges who will be trying the case. It's almost as if the Dem's (and Indie's) planned ahead for this? After all, they (as well as Repugs) DID know ahead of time how pivotal Ohio's Electoral Votes would be.

Keep the faith!

[TexasChick]

22. OMG! I did not know this:

He said he's spent the last few years IN Ohio working on a case about how illegal corporate funds were used to fund 'stacking' the Supreme Court in Ohio. So I definitely think Arnebeck has more than enough 'stuff' on the judges who will be trying the case.



How very interesting indeed....

[crispini]

15. Um, but doesn't releasing stuff on Friday

usually insure it will get ignored? Wasn't that the reason why Bushco did all of those NG document dumps on Friday, because NOBODY (except us political junkies) watches the news on the weekends?

[TexasChick]

17. crispini, I understand your question, but I have a question to your

question. But wouldn't holding off until 5:00 p.m. or so be the point of putting the electors at a disadvantage and not necessarily us citizens? Would the point of filing the lawsuit later on today would be to make it harder for the OH Repuke lawyers and state electors to ignore and not necessarily to make the news? Sorry, I'm not trying to antagonize you, just wondering.... :hi:

[crispini]

30. Well, that sounds good to me.

I don't really know. I was just speaking to understandinglife's point #4 above, about owning the news cycles over the weekend.

Waiting til the last minute would give the electors very little time to prepare, that's true. I just don't know enough about this process to know if it's a good thing or a bad thing.

(And it wasn't an antangonzing question at all, IMO!) :hi:

[TexasChick]

31. crispini, have you read THIS THREAD!

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=137659#137699

[crispini]

37. Okay, I'm behind. :) Thanks! n/t

[delphine]

21. Weekend news cycles

suck. No one pays attention. That's why this administration reports shitty news on Fridays and enacts shitty regulation changes and royal edicts on Fridays.

If he's interested in news cycles, filing friday is counterproductive. And late filing on Friday does nothing but ensure no one will do anything about it until late next week. It doesn't hurt Blackwell to have this filed late in the week. His lawyers will probably show up Monday a.m. to try to have the case dismissed.

And can someone explain to me why dems can never get their cases heard (they are always "waiting" for a hearing) but repukes always seem to manage these late night hearings and immediate appeals?

[understandinglife]

29. Firstly, I'm having a bit of fun, here, as I warned...

...in my original comment.

Second, if I wanted the entire Nation to focus on an issue, an issue that could have truly profound impact, I would want it bannered on the front page of every major 'Sunday' newspaper, and I would want all the news commentary shows focused on it, and have it be one of the items that might well get mentioned during breaks in various broadcast sports events (please note that again I must disclose ignorance of anything that happens on tv/cable as the last time I watched such stuff was in the late 90s).

Quite importantly, I would also want the 'major markets' closed when I announced something of the purported severity of what Mr Arnebeck has already alerted us to expect. Go back and check the response of DJIA & Nasdaq on 2 Nov 2004 within moments of the first 'leaked' exit poll data. With that as context, just imagine what happens if a suit is filed claiming fraud in a national election and examination of the suit finds it likely to be well-evidenced.

In fact, reflect on these statements from 6 Dec 2004 ".....lawyers from the Alliance for Democracy, a group based in Massachusetts that advocates fair elections, plan to ask the Ohio Supreme Court to throw out the election results and declare Mr. Kerry the winner. Officials with the group, which is filing the request on behalf of 25 Ohio voters, said they would be able to demonstrate widespread irregularities and fraud in the heavily Republican counties surrounding Cincinnati.

"We will allege in the complaint that the result should have been Kerry winning," said Clifford Arnebeck, a lawyer in Columbus, Ohio, who is co-chairman of the alliance.""

Link:
http://www.thealliancefordemocracy.org/html/eng/2209-AA.shtml


But, please note that I offered my comments as totally uninformed, speculative, and for a bit of levity, though I realize nothing of what we are all concerned and are committed to achieving is in any way funny.

Peace.

"When Did Bush Know?"

[TexasChick]

32. understandinglife, read my post #31!

Oh, and to answer your question of when Chimp knew. He's known all along! LOL! I knew you knew that already though! :D

[understandinglife]

34. Thanks, I needed a good LOL!! Peace (n/t)

[IndyPriest]

23. #5: real jam on Monday

is right! I think the electors are probably going to cast their votes on Monday as we think -- for Bush. BUT, I don't doubt for a minute that Arnebeck believes he's got the goods. The question for me, then, is: what happens back in Ohio. The election isn't "stamped" until Jan. 6. So some judge in Ohio in the next three weeks is likely going to face the prospect of saying to the nation: "I know this is going to be tough, but Arnebeck's got enough to go forward with the suit." If THAT happens, look out.

And YES, understandinglife: WHEN did Bush know?!

[Pithy Cherub]

28. You have an excellent point here plus

the strategy would be to pull the legal/public relations team that he will be using together for injunctive relief at every level.

a.) Where exactly is David Boies right now. He may not have won bush v. gore but he sure knows/learned the election law lessons as evidenced by his book.
b.) Who is in charge of the alliance's PR strategy?
c.) What types of charges are being filed in addition to the lawsuit - if he does was there criminal intent well... hint: FBI shutting down warren county. Who will want to flip on whom?
d.) He needs an appellate strategy as well.
e.) Injunctive relief would mean he wants some specific things - how feasible are they and does he have a remedy in mind.

just off the top of my head... I am writing 100 times: I will wait patiently, I will wait...

[understandinglife]

33. Appears I've failed for the xillionth+1 time at being a prophet...

....check this DU Link:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x137659

But being the analytical scientist that I am, I just sent email to AfP requesting confirmation.

Peace.

"When Did Bush Know?"

[Stand and Fight]

2. KICK N/T

[november3rd]

4. the election isn't going to be overturned

No matter how courageous the judge or solid the evidence, there is now way the river can be crossed under these circumstances. Time is too limited and the Republicans can wage endless delaying tactics, regardless of evidence.

Furthermore, they have all the MSM controlling the perceptions of the American public as part of the Republican Party talking points.

The only way the election will be overturned is if:

1. The case is so strong that
2. There's such a public outcry that
3. The media have to go along, and
4. The Congress gets painted into a corner before the electors report in January.

More likely, enough people will get pissed off to lobby their states for better future elections.

[berni_mccoy]

5. Sheesh...

Now that you put it that way, I'm just giving up! I realize some people are trying to be realistic (and I'm not faulting you), but please cut it out with the negative subject lines. :shrug:

I agree with your points 1 and 2. I don't agree with 3 and 4. If the case is strong and the public is outraged, I believe that will be enough. JMHO.

[tavalon]

7. No, don't give up

If you are only doing this if the outcome is predestined (when the outcome isn't predestined at all) then you are doing it for the wrong reasons.

Fight this issue because the fraud is wrong, whether a different person becomes president or not.

[libertypirate]

25. Pay attention

This is a criminal matter.... They got fucking video of crimes taking place...

Moore had 1000 camerapersons at various polling places on "Vote Day", what are the odds they didn't catch any crime taking place with 1000 videos. And the right has been pushing this Moore vs. Gibson BS for two days... Things that make you do hrm... Where has Moore been? Post Production!

Harris has video of "Official Public Records" in trash bags and dumpsters. Not to mention before she found the signed poll tapes, she was handed by the county un-signed, dated 13 days after the election, records that shorted the Dem candidate hundreds of votes per precinct.

Get the facts before opening thy mouth please...

[3smos]

6. It's a bummer but

I see this unfolding in the next year, and then becoming a huge scandal. We may have to look at that giggling monkeyboy a few more months til he's tossed out...

[TexasChick]

10. Yep! That's what I believe! Chimp's disgusting inauguration will happen

but he will fall hard along with Satan Cheney and probably won't finish out their second term for very long.

[Quakerfriend]

14. I'm with you on that one

Interestingly enough there is a "psychics" thread on today, and they pretty much predict this very thing happening.

Still hoping-and-a-praying for Arnebeck to "shock and Awe" us (I mean them!!)!!:bounce:

Also, it has occurred to me that we haven't heard a peep about Avi Rubin since right after the election. And yet, I heard that he was at the Conyers hearings. It seems to me that he may be able to provide or reveal the most damning evidence.........Perhaps, he's the hammer in Cliffs case.

[crispini]

16. Ooo. Where is it?

I love prediction threads.

[TexasChick]

19. I think Libertybelle might be referring to this thread:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x2810889


Crispini, I'm sorry to sound dumb, but who is Avi Ruben?

[crispini]

36. Thanks! Good thread!

re: Avi Ruben -- isn't he one of the e-voting experts?
http://avirubin.com/

Or are you thinking of someone else?

Hey, you're in TX -- are you going to the rally in Austin Sunday?

[TexasChick]

38. Nope. Unfortunately, I can't. I live in McKinney (several hours away)

and have been unemployed for two years now with no money. I wish them the very best of luck and wish I could be there too! :cry:

[crispini]

39. I live in Dallas.

Wanna carpool? :D

[TexasChick]

40. Nevermind, crispini. I can't go. My sister reminded me we have got to

go Sunday and help our brother out with his new house! Totally forgot. He works at Microsoft and gets paid the big bucks! Must be nice, huh?

[crispini]

41. Oh well, next time! :) n/t

[electropop]

18. I agree, be patient

We probably won't prevent the coronation, but that hardly means it's over. It took almost 2 years to topple Nixon, but the result was serious damage to the repukes.

[tex-wyo-dem]

24. Just a guess...

But I doubt that he would go in front of a judge to do something as unprecedented as throw out the election results of a state with only statistics to back him up. Some possibilities:

- Affidavits of witnesses of voter suppression and vote tampering
- Video showing clear examples of voter suppression a la MM
- Technical experts testifying to security concerns of voting machines and tabulator databases
- Warren county lock-down
- Wistleblower(s)?

[donkeyotay]

26. speaking of the Warren Co. lock-down

any chance that someone is going to put these people, and anyone involved from Homeland Security, under oath and make them testify as to how this happened?

[VTGold]

27. If one judge sees that the sky is falling maybe he/she will be smart...

...enough to get out of the way early. And be a hero. Super Judge!

[tinfoil_beret]

35. Even if it is, what then?

The original post asks about the possibility of invalidating Ohio's election. What then? A revote? Unfortunately, they still have a January 6 deadline. A statewide revote in Ohio before then wouldn't happen.

Unless they flip the selection of Ohio electors to Kerry, the majority would fall to 260 and * would win with 266 to Kerry's 252. (See Section One of Article Two of the United States Constitution for the rules of the game.)

For this reason, I don't understand why they currently focus on only one state. Before they had possible actions in New Mexico and Nevada. Now, I haven't heard much of anything other than Ohio.

Since they only have their sights set on Ohio, only the results of the recount could change the outcome. I wonder why they put all of their eggs in one basket when more certain options exist.