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So many good analyses of vote fraud in Ohio have been published online that it is hard to keep track of them and hard to understand how they all fit together. Also, some analyses are so packed full of numbers that it is very hard to get the gist. I teach Introductory Statistics at a university and this is my attempt to summarize the powerful evidence that is accumulating. It is still long, it still has lots of numbers and I hope it is helpful. I welcome your comments/corrections. (I know this is not complete. I will continue working on it tomorrow and will post again then).
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ES&S AND TRIAD IMPLICATED IN KERRY/CONNALLY DISCREPANCY
Ellen Connally, an African-American supreme court candidate running an underfunded race won a greater percentage of votes in her race than John Kerry did in his in many Ohio counties. Kerry, as the presidential candidate should have a higher percentage than Connally because most voters have the priority of casting a vote for president. Connally ran better than Kerry in areas where she wasn't known and did not campaign!
There were 15 Ohio counties where Connally’s margin was 5,000 votes or more better than Kerry’s unofficial results: Auglaize, Butler, Clermont, Darke, Delaware, Greene, Hamilton, Hancock, Licking, Mercer, Miami, Putnam, Shelby, Stark, and Warren. All 15 counties use voting systems by ES&S (10 counties) or by Triad (5 counties). Both companies have ties with the Republican party.
In the 15 counties in which the Connally margin is 5,000 better than Kerry's, Connally's margin exceeded Kerry's by 190,437 votes.
Primary reference: Kerry Supports Ohio Vote Investigation, Jackson says
by Steven Rosenfeld, November 28, 2004. <
http://www.freepress.org/departments/display/19/2004/944> ================================================
TRIAD MACHINES PRODUCE MORE BUSH VOTES THAN EXPECTED
Together Triad Governmental Systems, Inc. and Election Systems & Software (ES&S) count the votes in 80 out of the 88 counties in Ohio. Triad provides punch card machines and the computer program that tallies the punch-card ballots in the centralized counting systems used in 41 counties in Ohio. ES&S provides punch card, optical scan, and touchscreen machines to the most populous counties in Ohio.
A comparison of votes for Kerry (compared to Gore) indicates that in the 28 counties using punch card systems not manufactured by Triad, Kerry won 62,406 more votes than expected; in the 7 counties using electronic voting Kerry won 38,377 more Kerry votes than expected; and in the 12 counties using optical scan equipment, Kerry won 323 more votes than expected. Combined, Kerry won 101,506* more votes than expected in the 47 counties in Ohio that do not use Triad punch card machines, an average of 2,160 per county. In contrast, in the 41 counties using Triad punch card voting systems John Kerry got 13,369 votes fewer votes than expected, an average of 326 fewer per county.
If the Triad counties had voted (in comparison with 2000) similarly to all the other counties combined, there would have been a net of 2,486 extra Kerry votes per each of the 41 counties, providing a net Kerry gain of 101,926 extra net Kerry votes. And with the additional provisional votes that are up for grabs, that could easily put Kerry over the top, I would think.
Primary reference: <
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=135124&mesg_id=135124&page=> (*This number may be wrong. If it is, it causes only a slight change in net Kerry gain from what is reported here).
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JOHN KERRY CONCEDED TOO SOON (Voter Suppression/Uncounted Provisionals)
Richard Hayes Phillips, Ph.D. November 16, 2004
The official Voter Turnout in Ohio is 5,574,476. Adding the 155,428 Provisional Ballots issued turnout was 5,729,904. The Total Votes Counted were 5,481,804. This leaves 248,100 votes uncounted.
http://www.commondreams.org/views04/1208-31.htm>.>
Link to Phillips' complete analysis: <http://web.northnet.org/minstrel/uncounted.htm>
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STEALING VOTES IN COLUMBUS (Voter Suppression)
Richard Hayes Phillips, Ph.D. November 23, 2004
The Free Press on Election Day posted a disturbing story, later confirmed by the Columbus Dispatch: Franklin County Board of Elections Director Matt Damschroder deliberately withheld voting machines from predominantly black Democratic wards in Columbus, and dispersed some of the machines to affluent suburbs in Franklin County. Damschroder is the former Executive Director of the Franklin County Republican Party.
Median voter turnout in precincts that voted for Bush was 60.56%, for Kerry median turnout was 50.78%. Voter turnout was over sixty percent in 54.5% of precincts that voted for Bush. By contrast, turnout was over sixty percent in only 16.5% of Kerry precincts.
Were voters not enthusiastic about voting for Kerry or is this pattern due to uneven distribution of voting machines? Kerry had a higher turnout where the polling places had enough voting machines. In the 38 wards in which the number of registered voters per voting machine was the lowest, 26 went for Kerry and the turnout was 55.85%. In the 36 wards in which the number of registered voters per voting machine was the highest (which include Democratic Party strongholds)all 36 wards went for Kerry and median turnout was only 46.25%.
I conclude that the withholding of voting machines from predominantly Democratic wards in the City of Columbus cost John Kerry upwards of 17,000 votes.
Link to Phillips' complete analysis: <http://web.northnet.org/minstrel/columbus.htm>
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STEALING VOTES IN CLEVELAND (Vote Tally Inflation; Vote switching)
BY RICHARD HAYES PHILLIPS, Ph.D, NOVEMBER 18, 2004
Phillips' analysis of Cleveland precincts suggests that about 682 votes may have been shifted from the Kerry column to the third-party candidates (Badnarik and Peroutka) in 11 precincts.
Phillips estimates that 5,186 more votes should be Kerry's tally than appear in the reported vote totals for precincts with very low voter turnout. The reported voter turnout in 34 precincts was astonishly low for a presidential election (as low as 7.10%, many of the 34 precincts had turnouts around 30%). Phillips adopted 50% as an arbitrary estimate of the true voter turnout for the underreported precincts, and assumes that the proportions of the vote allotted are correct for the precincts. Phillips notes that there may be some correlation between vote suppression efforts (too few machines, etc) and the low voter turnout in these precincts.
In some cases there appear to have been wholesale shifts of votes from the Kerry column to the Bush column: By comparing Bush's performance in 2000 to his performance in 2004 and by assuming that the proportions of the vote alloted elsewhere in the ward are correct, Phillips estimates that at least 164 votes cast for Kerry were switched to Bush.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x1060300>>
Link to Phillips' complete analysis: <http://web.northnet.org/minstrel/cleveland.htm>
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OHIO TURNS WHITE, FALLS INTO UNDECIDED COLUMN (Vote Tally Inflation; Vote switching) by Richard Hayes Phillips, Ph.D.
In 28 locations where returns ARE broken down into wards, the sum total of the votes cast in all the wards is less than the total reported for the location . For example, in Cleveland totalling the number of votes for each ward yeilds 165,578 votes, while the total number of votes reported is 214,902 (a discrepancy of 49,324 votes). Summing over all 28 locations the discrepancy is 214,193 votes.
In 11 locations where returns are not broken down into wards, the total votes cast are greater than the number of registered voters . In University Heights for example, there are 10,072 registered voters, and it was reported that 11,982 votes were cast - thus there were 1,910 more votes than registered voters. Summing over the 13 locations there appear to have been 26,416 more votes cast than there are registered voters.
In two cases, Solon and Strongsville, where returns are broken down into wards, the discrepancy is limited to a single ward each. Of the 7 wards in Solon, six have more registered voters than votes cast - only Ward 6 has more votes cast than voters. In Solon Ward 6 there were 4,300 votes cast while the ward only has 2,292 registered voters. Of the 4 wards in Strongsville, three wards have more registered voters than votes cast, only Ward 3 has more votes than voters). In Strongsville Ward 3 the total votes cast was 12,108 when the ward has only 7,806 registered voters.
In two cases, Mayfield Heights and Parma Heights, the total votes cast, while less than the number of registered voters, is so high 87.87% and 95.6%, respectively) as to cause a reasonable observer to question whether there was such a high turnout.
Link to Phillips' complete analysis: <http://web.northnet.org/minstrel/ohio.htm>
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HACKING THE VOTE IN MIAMI COUNTY (Vote Tally Inflation; Vote switching)
Richard Hayes Phillips, Ph.D.
Over 11,000 fewer votes were cast in 2004 than in 2000.
After 100% of precincts had been reported an additional 18,975 appeared in the final total later on election night. The proportion of votes to each candidate was the same before (Bush 65.80%) and after the 18,975 additional votes (Bush 65.77%).
Exceptionally high voter turnout? Once absentee votes were added to the totals 51,777 votes were counted for president. That is 20.86% higher than the 2000 vote total (even though population has grown by only 1.38% and the number of registered voters increased by 8.09%). For example, voter turnout in Concord South West was 98.55%.
Link to Phillips' complete analysis: <http://web.northnet.org/minstrel/miami.htm> 
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