Only three possibilities, Mr. Mitofsky

[JPJones]

1) You are a really bad pollster. (If you say that Bush voters were ashamed of their vote, whatever, your pollsters should have been trained better to emphasize the importance of the poll).

2) You are one unlucky dude (the Kerry and Bush result differences were both outside the 99% confidence interval, a better measure than margin of error). So, if you ran 100 polls, 99 of them would have been within the confidence interval.

3) You would rather sully your reputation as a pollster than admit that the polls were right and that the results reflect election fraud.


Now, some may argue that Bush's results were not actually out of the 99% confidence interval, but they are, and I'll elaborate further.

Look at the CNN exit poll data from 7 pm (the 'uncorrected' version).
http://www.exitpollz.org

Look at the breakdown for income (under versus over $50,000). Even with the best case scenario for Bush in terms of rounding - he could not have more than 47.90% in the Mitofsky exit poll.

[texpatriot2004]

1. I vote for scenario number 3...Mitofsky falls for Bush

[Spinzonner]

2. Or maybe

3.5) He got an offer he couldn't refuse from somebody

[troubleinwinter]

3. Mitofsky has been heavily on my mind the last coupla days.

Supposedly, exit polls 'legitimize' election results (as in the Ukraine).

Our exit polling has been bought and paid for by partisan corporate media.

Raw data has been withheld from the public (Rep. Conyers' committee).

The data is supposedly for sale, if you have the $$$, but what is the price, and how long would it take them to provide it?

One could think that although the media paid for the polling, it has already served the media's purpose for early reporting, and there is no further purpose in withholding the raw data for analysis.

[lthuedk]

4. Who knows, Mitofsky's reluctance may be do to turning over evidence

to an ongoing investigation.

[texpatriot2004]

5. Yeah, like maybe that would seal the deal?

[dargondogon]

6. Abide by AAPOR's best practices, please

Send this to [e-mail]

I urge you to abide by the polling standards promulgated by the
American Association for Public Opinion Research by publicly:

-- Releasing data from exit polls for review by polling researchers to ensure the calibrated results can be replicated by others.
-- Discussing possible sources of error.
-- Describing any special scoring, editing, data adjustment or
indexing procedures (or calibration) used.
-- Describing your sample design.
-- Describing your sample selection procedure.
-- Delivering a full accounting of the final outcome of all "sample
cases."
-- Describing how non respondents differ from respondents.

The data no longer have proprietary value to your subscribers.
Election Night is long over, they hired you to help them promptly
report results. Now it's time to make a transition to public service,
Mr. Mitofsky.

[texpatriot2004]

7. Done n/t

[texpatriot2004]

8. I got a failure notice about delivery to that address, I guess

I will have to send it snail mail.

[troubleinwinter]

9. Thanks... just sent one.

[troubleinwinter]

10. Mine seems to have gone through fine!