San Diego Union Tribune: Latino's support for GOP in '04 worries Democrats

[question everything]

Latino's support for GOP in '04 worries Democrats

By Toby Eckert
COPLEY NEWS SERVICE

December 11, 2004

WASHINGTON – As he traveled the country last summer to drum up support for Democratic presidential candidate Sen. John Kerry, New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, one of the best-known Hispanic officials in the country, made a prediction:

President Bush would win the election if he and his Republican allies gained just five percentage points among Hispanic voters.

It appears Richardson was dead on.

While the exit polls are still subject to debate, Democrats concede that Bush made inroads among Hispanic voters on Election Day, and that the trend spells trouble for them unless they revamp efforts to reach out to the nation's fastest-growing constituency.

More..


Find this article at:
http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20041211/news_1n11hispanic.html

[RaulVB]

1. Delusional. After Fraud topic (n/t)

[bullimiami]

2. I dont believe that was true.

I thought I saw stats that showed Kerry did better than Gore among hispanics.

[RaulVB]

3. Correct.

Kerry got 32% of the Cuban vote in Miami. That is a dramatic improvement over Gore's numbers.

But I insist, this issues are after fraud topics. We need to wait and pick the right moment to talk about them.

[EMunster]

4. OP-Ed in Miami Herald on Hispanic Vote

http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/news/opinion/10391453.htm

[question everything]

9. Interesting. And on the same day

And I agree that the Hispanic vote is not a monolithic one. There are the Mexicans in CA which are certainly low class workers who are also subjected to blatant discrimination and are the natural constituents of the Democrats - when they vote.

And then there are the middle and upper class Cubans in Florida who vote with their class.

[cdp]

5. Democrats SHOULD be worried

I think most people here would agree that, fraud or no fraud, Kerry sure as hell didn't get 72% of the Hispanic vote like Clinton did in 1996.

These are all from CNN.com

2004 By Race:
77% of voters were White - Bush 58%, Kerry 41%
11% of voters were Black - Bush 11%, Kerry 88%
8% of voters were Hispanic - Bush 44%, Kerry 53%
2% of voters were Asian - Bush 44%, Kerry 56%
2% Other - Bush 40%, Kerry 54%

2000 By Race:
81% of voters were White - Bush 54%, Gore 42%
10% of voters were Black - Bush 9%, Gore 90%
7% of voters were Hispanic - Bush 35%, Gore 62%
2% were Asian - Bush 41%, Gore 55%
1% Other - Bush 39%, Gore 55%

1996 By Race:
83% of voters were White - Dole 46%, Clinton 43%
10% of voters were Black - Dole 12%, Clinton 84%
5% of voters were Hispanic - Dole 21%, Clinton 72%
1% of voters were Asian - Dole 48%, Clinton 43%
1% Other - Dole 21%, Clinton 64%

[RaulVB]

6. CNN's numbers are inaccurate (n/t)

[cdp]

7. Questions for you

Do you think CNN's 1996 numbers are inaccurate?

If you think CNN's 2004 numbers are wrong, what do YOU think the Hispanic percentages really were?

[RaulVB]

8. 1996

Good question,

If you look at the percentages, Clintong gets 72% over a Hispanic vote share nationwide of just 5%, meaning they did not vote in the same numbers as they do today.

If they vote in larger numbers, obviously the percentages of the Democratic share will not be "frozen", they should go down.

Regarding 2004, I think that Bush got between 33% and 36% of the Hispanic vote, but I might be wrong because LOTS of Hispanics were really angry with him for the war and the way Republicans trashed the Pope whe he opposed Bush's regime before the Iraq invasion. Hispanics are not a "block", however.

I personally can tell you that they consider him (Bush) a very cruel man.

[cdp]

13. My grandfather was born in Cuba

so I have a little bit of experience with this "group."
This article from April sums up some of the reasons I think Bush went on to gain ground.

http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/04095/295209.stm

Personally, I think there are also a lot of religious Hispanics who liked Bush's stance on abortion and gays.

[regnaD kciN]

10. Already debunked...

Check out http://www.emergingdemocraticmajorityweblog.com/donkeyrising/archives/000951.php and the follow-ups on the same site.

Of course, the Union-Tribune is a 100%-certified charter member of the Republican Noise Machine.

[thjay]

11. Ignore the SD Union Trib

They are a big part of the noise machine in San Diego. They have lost good journalist and many, many subscribers because of their obvious skewed perspective on what they choose to call news. The silver lining is that people are waking up and paying attention, thanks in part to Air America, and the mayoral candidacy of Donna Frye.

[cdp]

12. That article still suggests that Dems have lost some serious ground

among Hispanics in the last 8 years.

"...if 44 percent is the wrong level for Bush’s support among Hispanics, what is the right level? Of course, we’ll never really know for sure, but I am persuaded, by playing with the numbers and making some reasonable assumptions to correct the anomalies in the NEP that it is somewhere around 39 percent. That is also Sailer’s conclusion and that of the National Council of La Raza..."

1996 By Race:
83% of voters were White - Dole 46%, Clinton 43%
10% of voters were Black - Dole 12%, Clinton 84%
5% of voters were Hispanic - Dole 21%, Clinton 72%
1% of voters were Asian - Dole 48%, Clinton 43%
1% Other - Dole 21%, Clinton 64%