Exit poll data - this is odd....

[VTGold]

I got to this site through a link on the uconn site

I don't understand exit poll methodology and this could be nothing - but look at this:

For each state CNN and NBC show exit polls which I guess sort of go along with the "actual" vote (rumor says they changed them after the fact to comply)

But look at CBS - they have every state coming out to 50% each. Each in a different breakdown (48%-52%, 60%-40%) Even the heavy Bush and Kerry states.

Here's the wishfull-fairy-Godmother question - Could that be some sort of protest by someone at CBS?

http://www.edisonresearch.com/home/archives/2004/11/view_election_2.html

[Goldeneye]

1. I'm not following. What do you mean?

[VTGold]

2. for example.....................

CNN shows Texas as:

Female: Bush-63% Kerry-37%
Male: Bush-60% Kerry-40%
avg 61.5% 38.5%

but CBS shows Texas as

Female: Bush-56% Kerry-53%
Male: Bush-44% Kerry-47%
avg 50% 50%


Its like that for every state

[Goldeneye]

7. It's getting late...and I could be way off

But I think they format their info differently

CBS has the percent of Kerry voters that were males and the percent that were females. This total always has to add up to 100% which divided by two gives 50%

CNN has the percent of males that voted for Bush versus the percent males that voted for Kerry, then the percent of females that voted for Bush versus the percent of females that voted for Kerry.

[Scout1071]

3. That they refused

to go along with altering the exit polls?

[VTGold]

4. I guess - I don't know - it seems intentional because someone..

took the time to come up with 50% avg with different breakdown's -

47% - 53%
48% - 52%
60% - 40%

They could have just set them all to 50% each but they're all different so you'd have to stop and notice and figure it out.

[Mastiff]

8. I think that what they are doing is using a different breakdown.

CNN shows Texas as:

Female: Bush-63% Kerry-37%
Male: Bush- 60% Kerry-40%
avg 61.5% 38.5%
So they are saying Bush got 61.5% of the total vote, and Kerry got 38.5% of the total vote.
but CBS shows Texas as

Female: Bush-56% Kerry-53%
Male: Bush-44% Kerry-47%

Total 100% 100%
avg 50% 50%
CBS is saying that 53% of Kerrys votes were women, and 47% were men.
Bush's vote was 56% women and 44% men.

CBS's figures don't tell you a damn thing about who won. It just gives you a breakdown of the percentages of men and women in his totals.

[mirandapriestly]

5. That is so bizarre..

what could the reason be?

[Rhapsody in Blue]

6. The CBS numbers are "weighted"

They're expressing the same data, just in a different way.

The CNN numbers break down the percentage of respondents in the left column. If you apply those percentages to the numbers in the actual results column, so that your total respondents will always equal 100%, you'll get the figures like the CBS ones. Add the columns down - they will always equal 100%, which is why you're seeing them always "average to 50%"

Only the Male/Female question averages to 50%, but if you look at all the other questions in the CBS numbers, the columns will always add up to 100%, where the CNN numbers do not - they preferred to show the percentages of respondents their results applied to.

[lonestarnot]

9. MOE

Accounts for ties

[cam75219]

10. Not that difficult to understand actually

The numbers you posted:

CNN shows Texas as:

Female: Bush-63% Kerry-37%
Male: Bush-60% Kerry-40%
avg 61.5% 38.5%

but CBS shows Texas as

Female: Bush-56% Kerry-53%
Male: Bush-44% Kerry-47%
avg 50% 50%

The CNN numbers show that of all female voters Bush-63% Kerry-37, and of all male voters Bush-60% Kerry-40%.

The CBS numbers show that of all Bush voters Female-56% Male-44%, and of all Kerry Voters Female-53% Male-47%.

As far as the averages go the CNN numbers need to be averaged across, and you will also get a 50/50 average.

There you go............

[KerryOn]

11. I noticed that as well

I have the data for all 51 and they are in fact 50% Kerry and 50% Bush for every state, when you average the Males and Females.

I aslo have exit poll data, for NBC and CNN if anyone needs it.

[ewulf]

12. They just aren't touching vote choices at all:

they give you the break down on the supporters for Bush and for Kerry without telling you what the distribution of those supporters is. This is sure a much fairer approach that weighing the numbers like the other networks did, to give a false impression that more respondents said they were voting for Bush. I like it.

Its not as good as showing the original survey data, but at least they aren't lying to us by giving vote total information under the name "exit poll."

They removed information, but at least they didn't add in fake info to replace it...