Why doesn't someone do an independent "exit" poll now?

[garybeck]

Why doesn't Zogby or someone like that make some phone calls to people in ohio and ask them if they voted and who they voted for?

If they only consider those who voted, I would think that they could statistically take a large enough sample to make the margin of error quite small. Especially if they focused on certain counties.

I would think the results would be admissable in court.

[jamboi]

1. I've been wondering that for a while! n/t

[garybeck]

2. let's ask Zogby to do it

Maybe he would do it on his dime. Or maybe he would have a fee. Maybe Arnebeck has some money set aside for this sort of thing.

We should send email and faxes to Zogby to try to get him into the idea.

Wouldn't it be great if Zogby got to testify at the hearings and/or lawsuits?

[Jackpine Radical]

3. A fascinating idea.

I see a potential problem, though. A lot of wimpy, wishy-washy type people seem to want it thought that they voted for the "winner." It gives them the feeling that they're basking in the reflected glory of the victory or something. In this case that might produce a falsely positive result for the Idiot King. And of course neither Zogby nor anybody else has a way of weighting the results to take these and other possible distorting effects into account. It could, in other words, blow up in our faces big-time.

[unblock]

4. post-election polls are highly inaccurate

because many people claim to have voted when they didn't and many more people claim to have voted for the winner than actually did.

actual exit polls get their extremely high accuracy by virtually eliminating both of these. only small number of people who participate in actual exit polling were barred from voting, and nobody knows who the winner and so don't feel compelled to lie or misremember who they voted for.

[ISUGRADIA]

5. Any polling of who someone voted for a month or more

after an election is not going to be statistically significant to the universe of voters from election day. Any statistician will tell you this. A poll is only a sampling of opinion for that snapshot in time.

People's memories get fuzzier as time goes on and yes, there are a lot of people who don't care a lot about politics who may be unsure of who they voted for.