A New DUer Has Posted some info on exit poll changes.....

[leftchick]

This new DUer posted this in LBN and I thought it would be of interest if no one has seen it before. I know I had not seen it.


Oversea Visitor (20 posts) Tue Dec-21-04 11:44 PM
Response to Original message

19. I am here because of a thread


I track it down all the way to DU

Author SocalDemocrat
Articles number 1290765
Title Kerry Winning Exit polls- Fraud looks probable
Forum General Discussion : Politics
Last Alter day Nov 7

I cant msg any one here so l just post it

Why so important:
There is 2 snap shot of Exit poll screen on CNN.com

AT 12.21 am
Sample size taken into consideration 1,963
Results ( Only showing male for example)
Total Male 47% = 922.6 males
Total male for Bush 49% for Kerry 51% hence total male for Kerry 470.5

AT 1.41am
Sample size now 2020 with ( note an increase of 57 taken into consideration ... 1963+57... thats how sampling work)
Result Male
Total Males 47% = 949.4
Total Male for Bush 52% total male for Kerry 47% hence Kerry now got 446.2 vote

Logic: How can Kerry get 470 male respondents voting for him at sample 1963 and end up with 446 at sample 2020 with an additinal 57 more people being survey.

This prove there is a fix on Exit Poll Data between 12.21 am and 1.41 am. There is snap shot of screen taken and posted.

Took me a long time to get to the archives and its still there

The World is With You

[Brundle_Fly]

1. OMG

have to find those screen caps

[Brundle_Fly]

2. kick

:kick:

[americanwoman]

3. Yup.

Other examples of similar phenomenon were reported election night on DU. For instance, 2 sets of Ohio exit poll data seemed to show an actual decrease in the number of survey responders who voted for Kerry.

I'm interested though in "took me a long time to get to the archives and its still there." Are you saying you found archived data online? Where?

[WritersBlock]

4. Is this the thread?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=1290765&mesg_id=1295180&page=

[leftchick]

5. It sure looks like it!

The new DU poster apparently searched high and low for it and added the part I pasted to the LBN thread about Conyers asking for exit poll data. I wonder if Rep. Conyers is aware that these screen shots are available?

Here is the thread...

Conyers Seeks Exit Poll Data...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x1090531

[Oversea Visitor]

14. YES

:kick:

[leftchick]

6. kick

:kick:

[KaliTracy]

7. aren't these the captures

that had been placed here before?

I don't remember the thread -- probably about 3-4 weeks ago....

[AtLiberty]

8. Could this have anything to do with Rove...

...maintaining contact throughout election day with precincts and districts throughout election day?

[mattclearing]

9. Actually, didn't they adjust for turnout?

What they do is change the number of people to conform to the actual voting returns. I'm not sure if that would account for this, but it is one possible non-:tinfoilhat: explanation.

[euler]

24. I feel I must formally apologize

I did not know you had pointed out this crucial information before I made post #22.

[Bill of Rights]

10. Does anyone have Arnebeck's lawsuit handy?

I remember him giving a specific time that the fraud took place....when Kerry's votes were flipped to Bush.


It was around 12:45am.

[berniew1]

11. Systematic vote machine fraud has been documented- explains swing

Systematic vote machine fraud, "Default to Bush" has been documented in swing states such as Ohio, Florida, and New Mexico- and some of this has been observed in other states as well.
http://www.flcv.com/fraudpat.html
Other types of systematic fraud have also been observed in many areas.
These appear to explain the swing to Republican seen by the difference in the exit polls and official vote totals.

This means that Bush or another default candidate would get not only the votes of those who didn't notice that the intended candidate didn't register, but any intentional non votes or accidental non votes or unsuccessfully completed votes. Quite an advantage. Under normal circumstances this would result in a swing as much as 2 to 4% in many areas. But since it is a matter of record that the default was hard to override and sometimes impossible as reported by the EIRS reports and acknowleged by poll workers, only the most watchful or purposeful voters may have been able to successfully vote for a chosen non-Republican candidate. Thus the swing was likely much larger for some machines and even more in some minority precincts that appear to have been targeted to produce high levels of misvotes based on the large number of EIRS reports in minority precincts. There were also a few cases where precincts had machines set to default for a minor party candidate, but none observed to default to Kerry. These patterns have been confirmed by analysts and computer experts in several counties of each of these states. Other similar default related patterns have also been observed in some of these areas, such as failure to register a presidential vote when a voter tried to vote straight party line. This would result in the presidential vote going to the other “unintended” party.

[genieroze]

12. Ouch!

:wtf:

[sabra]

13. Dr. Freeman refers to this in his paper (with screen shots)

Which was presented at the Judiciary hearing...

http://www.buzzflash.com/alerts/04/11/Expldiscrpv00oPt1.pdf

[Oversea Visitor]

15. Dont you get it

You can drag CNN through the mud to explain this. You want media coverage .... there you are . They have to .... ahem kill the guys who supply them the data.... ahem wonder what those guys will say

Why fix exit poll? Hmm cant have it showing big win for Kerry.... or make it to reflect more like the so call tabulated result.

A fix is a fix as to why let them beat round the bush for an answer?

[merh]

16. Olberman would love to drag them through the mud.

If he has this, I wonder why he hasn't. If he doesn't have it, it should be sent to him.

[lonestarnot]

17. Suspicious!

Oh this doesn't look right...welllll then...let's just change it. okeedokeee.

[Oversea Visitor]

18. I am all the way

From South East Asia .... Malaysia....
There are many like me who is watching whats going on here
And no we wont be silent if shit hit the fans...
We be supporting you people..
There are people and there are goverments...
we know the different.... so we standing up for the people
This is people power

[RevCheesehead]

19. Thank you for taking the time to get involved!

We need more people like you, Oversea Visitor!!

[renate]

21. thank you, Oversea Visitor

...for your support.
Bless your heart for still caring about us non-Bush voters after so many of our more ignorant citizens gave the rest of the world the finger.
:grouphug:

[alittlelark]

23. Thanks for the support......

most of our population in in a media/shopping/religion induced trance. We need all the help we can get!

[caligirl]

30. Your help is very important to us, thank you for posting.

[leftchick]

33. I wish we had more like you in this country ...

Thank you for caring! :)

peace,
lc

[demo dutch]

20. Try to get this to Rep. Conyers, he has been requesting the raw

exit poll data from the networks and they are NOT cooperating!

[understandinglife]

32. Have sent this thread to Congressman Conyers, Mr Arnebeck,..

....NVRI and Brad Friedman. Taking no chances that these details are missed during the due diligence process.

Thank you "Oversea Visitor" for your efforts.

Peace

[euler]

22. This isn't unusual

I'm sorry, I lurk here often, but never post because I have nothing unique to add. However, I almost started posting a few weeks ago when this same topic was first posted here. But, it faded away as it should have. here it is again, but at a crucial time when our attention should not be averted from other important matters.

It is important to know how exit polls are conducted. It is entirely possible for the sample size to remain constant, while the internal demographic numbers change. So, this is not fraud, or anything like it.

Please review the 7 steps in conducting a exit poll here:

http://www.mysterypollster.com/main/2004/11/the_differe...

OK, the exit poll is conducted at a precinct, and the precinct closes at 7:00 PM with a certain number of voters having participated in the exit poll. What happens now ? Review step 4 with me now:

<snip>

Once the polls close, NEP gathers actual results for the precincts sampled in the exit polls and also for another larger sample of precincts (typically referred to as a sample of "key precincts"). Since not all precinct data is available at once, NEP gradually combines the exit poll results and the actual vote counts into an evolving hybrid of projections and estimates that gradually improves over the course of the evening.

<snip>

So, the exit poll numbers are gradually corrected by the actual votes in the precincts, as the actual count in each precinct becomes known. So, after the polls close, the exit poll numbers change to better reflect what actually happened, but the sample size remains unchanged. Now, many here at DU believe that merging actual results with the exit poll is itself fraudulent, but, if it is, then exit polls have always been fraudulent because this is how exit polls are always done.

Please now, review with me step 5:

<snip>

Once the actual results have been counted in the wee hours of election night, NEP re-weights the results of each exit poll so that the vote preference on the poll matches the actual count. They then release new cross-tabular tables for each state to the general public. In theory, weighting to match the vote preference to actual results makes the complete exit poll more accurate.

<snip>

So, at some point, all precincts are counted, then the exit polls are re-weighted and vote preferences re-tabulated based on actual results, possibly making the actual raw exit poll result somwhat different from the actual exit poll that is submiited to the customer (MSM). All this time, the actual sample size remains unchanged.

Please spend time on other important matters.

[proudbluestater]

26. "Please spend time on other important matters."

Thanks, Karl. Will do.




P.S. Please leave the office tidy when you pack up and get the hell out. Kerry and his staff thank you.

[euler]

28. Did you read my post ?

Perhaps my final sentence was taken incorrectly. Perhaps you take offense. If so, I'm sorry. I acknowledge I speak to Americans almost never.

At the same time, I detect animosity in your reply to me that seems out of place in a forum of people that are all connected in one respect - we are all democrats.

There is nothing in my post that can be characterized as controversial. With regard to exit polls, internal numbers can change with no corresponding change in the sample size.

I wish you success.

[Carolab]

29. Nice try

see ya

[euler]

31. I don't understand the reticence.

The information I presented is non-partisan and non-controversial.

The way exit polls have been conducted over the past 30 years is historical record. Exit polls are conducted a certain way. The way they are conducted is a matter of public record. I provided you with a link the DEFINES the way exit polls are conducted. It is the way all past exit polls have been conducted in the US.

The definition of how exit polls are conducted is as certain as the definition for a word in the Merriam Webster dictionary. If I tell you that the dictionary definition for 'house' is 'a building that serves as living quarters for one or a few families' would you reply, "nice try, see ya" ? My post contained no personal opinions, only facts that are on public record.

Your reply does not seem rational. Are you representative of all DU users ? I hope not.

[proudbluestater]

25. Thanks you Overseas Visitor!

We need all the help we can get and we are glad the world is coming to realize that once again the election was not a fair one.

[Pithy Cherub]

27. Oversea Visitor, your diligence is revered with the

highest esteem. Thank you for such a valuable contribution! :yourock: