PROBABILITY TABLES: YOUR EXIT POLL FRAUD DETECTION KIT

[TruthIsAll]

How to Use the Exit Poll Probability Tables

Probability Table I 
Assume a polling Margin of Error (MOE): 
MOE = 3%
Assume a deviation between the exit poll and vote tally:
Dev = 4% 

From the table:
The probability that this could occur due to chance: 0.45% 
or
1 out of 223

         PROBABILITY TABLE I 

	Vote Tally Deviation from Exit Poll					
	1%	2%	3%	4%	5%	
MOE		PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE				
0.50%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	
1.00%	2.50%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	
1.50%	9.57%	0.45%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	
2.00%	16.35%	2.50%	0.16%	0.00%	0.00%	
2.50%	21.65%	5.84%	0.93%	0.09%	0.00%	
						
3.00%	25.68%	9.57%	2.50%	0.45%	0.05%	
						
3.50%	28.77%	13.14%	4.65%	1.25%	0.26%	
4.00%	31.21%	16.35%	7.08%	2.50%	0.71%	
4.50%	33.16%	19.18%	9.57%	4.07%	1.47%	
5.00%	34.75%	21.65%	11.98%	5.84%	2.50%	

.........................................................


Probability Table II 
Assume the number of states (N) for which the Polling Margin
of Error is exceeded: 
Say N = 16 (this actually occurred)

Assume a probability that the Polling Margin of Error is
exceeded:
Prob = 2.5% (the case with a 3% MOE)

Note: there is a 95% confidence level (19 times out of 20)
that the deviation will fall WITHIN the MOE. There is a 5.0%
probabilty (or 1 out of 20) that the deviation would fall
OUTSIDE the MOE. So the actual probability is one-half of 5.0%
(2.5%, or 1 out of 40) that it would fall outside the MOE for
one of the candiates. 

The probability that this could occur due to chance: 
0.0000000000000738 (7.38E-14 in scientific notation)
or
1 out of 13.5 trillion



         PROBABILITY TABLE II 
FOR NUMBER OF STATES EXCEEDING THE MOE 			

	States With Vote Tallies Exceeding MOE	
Prob.	5	8	10	13	16	
> MOE		PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE	ODDS FOR 16
5.00%	1.E-01	4.E-03	2.E-04	1.E-06	2.E-09	1 in 491 mil
4.00%	5.E-02	9.E-04	3.E-05	8.E-08	8.E-11	1 in 12.4 bil
3.00%	2.E-02	1.E-04	2.E-06	3.E-09	1.E-12	1 in 879 bil
						
2.50%	9.E-03	4.E-05	5.E-07	3.E-10	7.E-14	1 in 13.5 tril
						
2.00%	4.E-03	8.E-06	6.E-08	2.E-11	3.E-15	1 in 333 tril
1.50%	1.E-03	9.E-07	4.E-09	5.E-13	ZERO	Impossible
1.00%	2.E-04	4.E-08	9.E-11	4.E-15	ZERO	Impossible