TIA -- What do you make of this email sent to me?

[davidgmills]

I thought it was laugable that the author, who posts on Mystery Pollster about the Bush "undervote" in the exit polls. FYI, Rick is your nemisis on Mystery Pollster.

Rick--

I finally got a chance to look at the data you sent me (Freeman's). The first
thing I did was calculate chi-squared for expected Bush responses (predicted
from the actual votes) vs. observed Bush responses in the sample, using the design
variances reported by Mitovsky. The main thing that stands out is the percent of
under-reported Bush votes < abs(Expected - Observed)/Expected >. However, the
percentages are by no means uniform across states. In particular these states
stand out (column U):

Double Digit:

*New Hampshire
*New York
*Rhode Island
*Massachussetts
*Vermont
*Deleware

Next tier:

*North Carolina
*South Carolina
*Alabama

This certainly doesn't look like a random, uniform bias across all states to me. BTW, I added
0.005 to each cell to allow for your discretization problem (rounded percents). This
bumps up the chi-squared even if you get exactly the same number of Bush respondents in
your poll as predicted by the final vote results (e.g. South Dakota).

There is nothing a priori suspicious about Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio.

Weighting the data by Mitovsky's variances doesn't change much. It re-orders which of the
states identified but doesn't change which ones they are. North Carolina and New Hampshire
emerge as the new top under-reporters.

You asked me to consider whether I thought a uniform bias was a reasonable hypothesis. It
certainly helps the Chi-squared. I got a Chi-squared minimum around 4.1% for a uniform
bias. That left Texas and Tennessee as anomalous (over-reporting Bush). If you drop
those states the 1% significance of un-explained chi-squared moves to a 12% significance
(not significant). In other words, hypothesizing the 4% nationwide bias takes all the information
we are likely to get away. However, given the non-uniform distribution of states,
I think this is a risky conclusion.

If I had access to precint level data, I would look for a pattern involving black precints
(in Alabama and the Carolinas; maybe New York and Delaware). Hispanics seem unlikely in
view of the Carolinas.

The likeliest hypothesis I can think of is that it there must be strong social pressures against
admitting you voted for Bush in (1) New England, and (2) black precints. I can readily
image that would be the case, given the "PC" culture in those precints. But of course
we won't know--it could be that the data were falsified with a uniform bias. I sure haven't
heard NEP talking about black precints and conformism in New England. Have you?

[bemis12]

1. Kick

*edited to avoid rule breaking* My bad.

[Junkdrawer]

2. TIA is tombstoned????

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=user_profiles&u_id=106042

[New Earth]

3. what the FUCK?

why? this is insanity....

[keepthemhonest]

4. I guess that goes along with we eat our own

crap.Whatever. Who is next Will Pitt? I think maybe we need a little more tolerance around here on DU while people are trying to literally save the world and not getting any sleep, let's cut them some slack if they do make a mistake. Can we bring back the dead here at DU.

[New Earth]

6. i wonder if it's b/c he told off the guy

who kept telling him all his stats were wrong :shrug:

come on man, this is the last person who should be banned :(

[keepthemhonest]

8. the other two

that were fighting with him had hardly any posts, probably freepers and definately antagonizing him. Freeps seem to wait for him to post and pounce.They should be toast not him.WTF.

[madison2000]

7. Jamboi, Bev Harris, TIA...

I thought we were the ones who believed in freedom of speech.

[Name removed]

30. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Name removed]

33. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[dalloway]

5. WHAT ON EARTH happened with TIA

Someone please explain--why tombstoned????

[keepthemhonest]

9. here is the thread

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=207187

People do that to him all the time. This time is was two people with hardly any posts, not that it always means freepers, but they are pointing out the other studies besides freeman and Berkeley, so we know who pays attention to those studies.:shrug:

[meganmonkey]

11. Speculation...

There was a thread yesterday or the day before started by TIA that kinda suprised me - it was about low post count posters being the ones who disagreed with his stats and the fraud in general. I was surprised to see something like that from TIA - he seems to generally be very confident of his work, but he seemed very defensive in the thread. I tend to ignore threads like that so I read it once, when it didn't have a lot of replies yet. My guess is it turned into a flame fest with name-calling etc, etc. I searched for the thread and can't find it, so it looks like it was deleted - more evidence that it was a flame fest. Maybe he just called too many people out and the mods drew the line?

Anybody remember that thread or know what happened to it?

on edit: guess it was a different thread...

[keepthemhonest]

13. see above

I think that's it

[meganmonkey]

15. Yup - I was posting at the same time. I edited...

Craziness on this board!

[FogerRox]

26. Yeah I posted on that Thread and went into "my Posts" but it could not be

displayed. If I was to guess--with a pinned warning about calling out newbies ---with a low post count---

he called out newbies with a low post count -------who had a prob with exit polls, or some such.

If I was to guess----- wink--
I hope he'll be back---soon.

on another note--of topic--a bit:

http://www.51capitalmarch.com/12-12/trentonNJphotos.shtml




My Mission: TARGET CBS

Join the protest @ CBS in NYC or protest in DC--or protest a TV station in your area. If enough Peeps show @ CBS I will extend the efforts to other outlets.

http://www.51capitalmarch.com /
[e-mail] /

[IndyPriest]

10. Unbelievable.

TIA said recently he's be canned before. Can have a short fuse. (Like I don't??) So maybe this will be a short-term thing. The guy's been an absolute machine for the cause!

[keepthemhonest]

14. how does that

work? I don't know the rules very well. Can they bring him back after a certain amount of time. Like a time out.Does anyone know?

[IndyPriest]

16. Don't think there's a definite route back in. n/t

[NMDemDist2]

17. anyone can email the admins for reinstatement if they so desire

a tombstone is not always permanent

[blueatheart]

12. he should have used spell check...

and bad grammar. It's no wonder these people supported Bush, have very similar qualities, semi retarded.

[smartvoter]

18. NO! Why would they tombstone TIA? He was a

serious activist. How many hours did he invest in our cause?

The pattern I saw was he would post stats and then he'd have to defend them all the time. I didn't see him as the aggressor.

This sucks.

And I JUST read a post about our side needing to be more inclusive.

[SicTransit]

21. Apparently being more inclusive

is what this is about.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=120x27279

Judging by that post, and looking back at TIA's discussions with people, he used an ad hominem argument once too often. See one of his threads accusing people with low post counts.

[zimba]

19. Id really like to see TIA and Jamboi

untombstoned asap. It leaves a bad taste in one's mouth when people who have the level of committment that they both have are tombstoned. Its also bad policy to lock the previous thread that raised this issue and limit the discussion of TIA to single posters at the Ask the Admins page. Very poor policy.

TIA and Jamboi are two of my favorite posters here. And so what if they tend to stand on the edge. If you can read between the lines and see the course that our country is taking, and you are committed 100% to seeing that it doesnt continue on its downward spiral, where the hell else is there to stand, but on the edge.

[keepthemhonest]

20. some of us went over to the ask the adminitrator

forum, you can see some quesitons there, but they are not allowed to say to much apparently.

[DrDebug]

22. And I saw post getting deleted by the Administration as well

And they didn't say anything except for deleting questions asked in the Admin forum and locking threats here because it's not appropriate.

It says enough in my opinion. I think it's time to leave.

This whole forum is about accountability in the * administration. If the DU administration does not want to be held accountable then we are all wasting our time here and should move on.

You can consider this my last post. I'm probably getting tombstoned as well for it.

[keepthemhonest]

25. they said that

TIA has appealed and they are reviewing it ,so there is hope for justice. The moderators don't want us discussing it in these forums they wanted us to go to the Administration board. All it not lost yet. Don't go anywhere we need you here.

[dogindia]

24. maybe the DU has been taken over

TIA is an essential person..

Could TIA be being attacked?

[keepthemhonest]

28. It's a thought

but no. I think they are just trying to make sure everyone follows the rules and TIA pushes the envelope, we all know that. Hopefull they can reinstate him ,but who is to say it won't happen again, because he does get pounced on in his threads.

[dogindia]

29. crazy time

What is up is down. Black white. Truth is hidden. Like a quake waiting to happen. Hardly a sign of it yet.

[Stand and Fight]

27. Jamboi? TruthisAll?

Jamboi... No. There were valid reasons behind his being tombstoned. Dig people and you'll be surprised what you find. Dig here on DU and on outside sources.

TruthisAll... Absolutely yes! Totally different story. I sent a message to the Moderators asking and urging them to grant TIA a reprieve since he did not deserve such.

[keepthemhonest]

31. me too

I think it will happen

[madison2000]

32. AMEN. I couldn't agree more.

I am still pretty new around here, but these were two of the most informative, passionate, committed people I've seen posting here.

:donut:

[paula777]

23. Man, I should have studied harder. I can't even follow this

[Moloch]

34. Locking...

Guys:

It is against the rules here at DU to discuss banned members. If you feel that a member was banned unfairly, please post a message in the Ask The Administrators forum. Please note that out of the three Administrators, only one is working now and this issue has already been brought up in the ATA forum.

I would like all of you to know that once a user is banned from DU, they are able to appeal the decision.

Thanks,

Damkira
DU Moderator