Jonathan D. Simon: Who Won The Popular Vote

[GregD]

This was just released. Enjoy!


The 2004 Presidential Election: Who Won The Popular Vote? An Examination of the Comparative Validity of Exit Poll and Vote Count Data
by Jonathan D. Simon, J.D. and Ron P. Baiman, Ph.D.
December 29, 2004

Executive Summary:

There is a substantial discrepancy—well outside the margin of error and outcomedeterminative— between the national exit poll and the popular vote count.
The possible causes of the discrepancy would be random error, a skewed exit poll, or breakdown in the fairness of the voting process and accuracy of the vote count.
Analysis shows that the discrepancy cannot reasonably be accounted for by chance or random error.
Evidence does not support hypotheses that the discrepancy was produced by problems with the exit poll.
Widespread breakdown in the fairness of the voting process and accuracy of the vote count are the most likely explanations for the discrepancy.
In an accurate count of a free and fair election, the strong likelihood is that Kerry would have been the winner of the popular vote.

http://www.freepress.org/departments/display/19/2004/1054

[dalloway]

1. a must read....n/t

[IndyOp]

2. Thanks GregD! Simon is an associate of Arnebeck's and a pollster (n/t)

[understandinglife]

3. Perfect timing (n/t)

[Melissa G]

4. Great Post for Media Blasters! n/t

[berniew1]

5. Since there was documented widespread suppression and fraud no way to know

Whats clear is that we didn't have a fair election process and its not clear there were fair counts in many states. Why bother having such a farce?? Partisan process controlled by partisan officials.
With systematic suppression of minorities, malfeasance, and fraud.
One surely can't call it democracy.

[Goldeneye]

6. Good reading. Thanks.

I still don't understand why this kind of stuff can't be used as evidence. I know the supreme court uses statistical evidence for some cases.

[euler]

7. Fine....

<snip>

Analysis shows that the discrepancy cannot reasonably be accounted for by chance or random error.

<snip/>

What analysis ?

<snip>

Evidence does not support hypotheses that the discrepancy was produced by problems with the exit poll.

<snip/>

What evidence ?

[Bill Bored]

8. It's all very troubling but so far,

there is no proof that the exit poll methodology was not flawed and there is also no proof that the popular vote was not hacked.

Also, I don't see how voter suppression would affect the exit polls, since exit polls only poll people who were _allowed_ to vote -- not suppressed would-be voters. While voter suppression was evident, it should affect the exit poll results as well as the vote count, unless the exit poll methodology didn't take voter suppression into account (flawed methodology?). In other words, if they sampled a lot of precincts in which voter suppression did not take place, this would skew the exit polls toward a result consistent with an unsuppressed turnout, favoring Kerry, while the actual turnout for Kerry was in fact suppressed. This still doesn't prove counting fraud -- only voter suppression, which has already been proven without consulting any exit polls whatsoever.

What we also have is a _lack_ of proof that the votes were counted correctly as cast in many states. This because of the lack of a voter-verified paper trail and sloppy recount procedures such as those employed in Ohio. The vote is unverifiable. No exit polls needed to prove this either. And this is where we should focus a good part of our efforts, primarily at the state level where these inadequacies are permitted to exist by those responsible for managing our elections.

For those who hang their hats on these exit polls, more power to you! But I'm convinced that the system is broken without looking at a single one of them, thank you.

[GregD]

9. kick

[bleever]

10. Kick! Thread should be titled "Kerry won the popular vote"

just to make sure everyone sees it!

:)

[FogerRox]

11. Kerry wOn -- oh and protest @ CBS in NYC - [e-mail]

My Mission: TARGET CBS

Join the protest @ CBS in NYC or protest in DC--If enough Peeps show @ CBS I will extend the efforts to other outlets, Like ABC & NBC.

Power to the People ! !! ! ! RIght On Brother KIP ! !! !

http://www.51capitalmarch.com /
[e-mail] /