Check these numbers out in FL!! 8,100% DIFFERENCE for Repubs???

[batchdem04]

My calcs are off! Don't pay attention to anything below...

Lookin off of
http://ustogether.org/Florida_Election.htm

In the E-Voting Counties:
The total % change for Republicans was 62.3% MORE than Dems.

In the Op-Scan Counties:
The total % change for Republicans was 8168.4% MORE than Dems.

thats 8,100% DIFFERENCE

**********************
Update:
its almost too simple so i think i might be making a math mistake (my brain is half dead)..so, someone please verify!

i did Rep % Change - Dem % Change for each county. So, for Hillsborough county, it was 51.2 - 11.0 = 40.2

Then i simply added all those numbers up for the E-Voting Counties and for the Op-Scan ones.

[molly]

1. Damn - good work!

[althecat]

2. Fantastic... stuff...

[hangloose]

3. What do we do with this information?

How does it help prove the case for fraud?

[hedda_foil]

4. Interesting. Very ....

Interesting. If they're screwing with the op-scan counties it means they're hitting the central tabulators in those counties more than in the touch screen counties. (The Dems still win in most of those counties, but by less.) The same technique works either way and if you can prevent a recount by making the win big enough, it's just as safe as screwing with the tabulation in the tounch screen counties.

[The Backlash Cometh]

5. What do you mean by % change?

Republican counties usually use op-scans, while dem counties were given the newer touch-screens. Repub counties should have a ratio of Republicans to Democrats almost 55% Republican to 35%-45% Democrats.

[Waistdeep]

6. There are some amazing results

The few numbers that I looked at checked out with the Florida state website.

It's almost as if the optical scan results got switched Rep <---> Dem in a number of counties.

[Waistdeep]

8. Look at

Bradford, Dixie and Suwanee for starters and compare the large dem registration percentage with the results.

[In Truth We Trust]

7. March this weekend on Tallahassee!!!! Stop the Coup!!!!!!!!

[batchdem04]

9. this is what i did

its almost too simple so i think i might be making a math mistake (my brain is half dead)..so, someone please verify!

i did Rep % Change - Dem % Change for each county. So, for Hillsborough county, it was 51.2 - 11.0 = 40.2

Then i simply added all those numbers up for the E-Voting Counties and for the Op-Scan ones.

[shraby]

11. Kick this page

:kick: :kick: :kick:

[nolabels]

14. Kick it and link it with althecat;s thread

How much info do we have, I would think a lot, has to hundreds of threads. Can we work together? Our labors would be halved or better that way and we would need to cover the same ground over and over (I am dreaming right?)

Thanks guys, my day seems much brighter now :kick:

[shelley806]

24. Yes, link to althecats's and Faun Otter:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=11874&mesg_id=11874

[nolabels]

25. Thanks for the link

:kick:

[shelley806]

26. Be sure and see the graphics post by Pandorasox on this thread.

It shows very clearly the exit polling data compared with paper ballot votes and electronic voting machines in Illinois, Maine, Wisconsin, North Carolina, New Hampshire, New Mexico,, Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. In all, there is a good correlation between the exit poll and the paper vote; for the electronic votes, where Kerry is ahead in the exit polls, Bush wins the actual vote.

We need to do this county by county, but I don't know how to get the unadjusted exit polls.

[Sufi Marmot]

12. The percents aren't additive...

If there is a 200% increase in county A and a 100% increase in county B, that doesn't make a 300% increase between both counties. You have to take the total population of both counties and then multiply by the fraction represented by each county.

So if county A has an increase goes from 1000 to 3000 (a 200% increase) and county B goes from 500 to 1000 (a 100% increase), the total increase is from 1500 to 4000, which is about a 166% increase. A 300% increase would be 6000.

-SM

[batchdem04]

15. yeah, i think you are right..

my brain kept telling me to stop...

can someone smarter than me compute the total numbers?

[Sufi Marmot]

18. Just add up all the numbers...

E-Touchscreen Counties:

County Totals:
Actual GOP: 1845876
Actual DEM: 1982210
Expected GOP: 1435386
Expected DEM: 1567299
GOP = 28.6% gain
DEM = 26.5% gain


Op-Scan Precincts
Actual GOP: 1950213
Actual DEM: 1445675
Expected GOP: 1428222
Expected DEM: 1503405
GOP = 36.5% gain
DEM = -3.8% loss

Someone feel free to check my math, but it appears to me that the DEMS did more poorly than expected in the Op-Scan precincts, whereas the E-touchscreen precincts were a wash.

-SM

[batchdem04]

20. hey, i got the same..numbers...

i'll put these on the first post

[Cookie wookie]

29. FYI: In GA the same Diebold GEMS code is used

in both the opti scan and touchscreen technologies.

[FlaGranny]

19. Can't you just

divide the number of counties into the 8100% figure? I'm no math genius but that would seem to be a rough estimate. Sixty-five counties I think - 125 percent?

[Sufi Marmot]

23. No...

Each county's population is different, so the 8100% figure is inaccurate. Individual county percentages aren't additive.

-SM

[kikiek]

10. It is like the repubs and dems were reversed.

[BOHICA06]

13. Jewels in the Bible Belt Buckle

Rural & Fundemental - are the biggies. At least with optical scan you can ask to see the ballots.

[progressivebydesign]

16. I'm kicking this for the mathematical types!

Cuz it's too much for me to comprehend this afternoon. But I think it has merit. Is it true, as someone has asserted here, that it's because the Dems had touchscreens mostly, and the repubs had optiscanners? Could that make up for the disparity? Is that a hard/fast rule about who has what machines? Can you verify which counties lean which direction historically in relation to the machines??

this is kickworthy. :kick:

[Waistdeep]

17. The previous generalization is wrong

According to those figures, the paper scan counties are the smaller counties in general, making up about 46% of the population. However, the counties with > 51% democrats are ALL small counties and ALL of them used paper scans.

[HFishbine]

34. That makes it even more bizzare

So Republican turnout was 36.5% greater than expected, and Dem turnout was 3.8% less than expected in the county's that Kerry won?

That sounds strange.

[Sufi Marmot]

35. Those numbers are from the Opti-Scan counties...

...most of which Bush won. Not sure how many Kerry carried...

-SM

[AimeeMM]

21. Exactly what I saw in Volusia County - No f'ing way that's true

[batchdem04]

22. **ACTUAL NUMBERS** FIRST POST WRONG

first post was wrong, sorry..and i can't edit the post any longer

County Totals:
Actual GOP: 1845876
Actual DEM: 1982210
Expected GOP: 1435386
Expected DEM: 1567299
GOP = 28.6% gain
DEM = 26.5% gain


Op-Scan Precincts
Actual GOP: 1950213
Actual DEM: 1445675
Expected GOP: 1428222
Expected DEM: 1503405
GOP = 36.5% gain
DEM = -3.8% loss

[Cookie wookie]

30. The Optiscan districts could be handcounted

if there was enough evidence of fraud, and the courts would go along.

[LizW]

27. Okay, for the mathematically challenged

like me.

I'm not sure what you're saying, but I know that I sat down last night and compared, county by Florida county, the number of votes gained by the Repubs from '00 to '04, and the number of votes gained by the Dems from '00 to '04.

The pattern is consistent in almost EVERY county. The Dems gained, but the Repubs gained HUGE. And there were a couple of counties where Kerry actually got fewer votes than Gore got.

There could be several reasons for this, and I haven't analyzed any of them, but I'm sure someone will. It will be interesting to see how these large gains for Repubs in many counties correlate to voting method, demographics, number of new registrations (and who was doing the registrations), population size, etc. It's going to take some time to do it, but I guarantee it will get done.

The most surprising thing is that the biggest gains for Repubs seemed to come in counties with optical scanners. We know that optical scanners use software that is susceptible to tampering, but there are paper ballots in those counties that could, in theory, be recounted.

[AzDar]

28. kick n/t

[pschoeb]

31. I looked at that sites data, and have Some problems

UPDATED TO FIX LINKS

Despite the registration data, which seems to match something I found here, the counties that seem to have high Dem registration but swing strongly to Bush, have a history of strong Republican voting. So I'm not sure whats going on there.

I found the registraion data here, and it seems to match the ustogether site
http://election.dos.state.fl.us/voterreg/vrArchive/2004voterreg.shtml#04gen

But if you look at the 1988 election, many of these counties with high Dem registration, vote for Bush senior in the same manner as 2004
http://election.dos.state.fl.us/elections/resultsarchive/DetailRpt.Asp?ELECTIONDATE=11/8/88&RACE=PRE&PARTY=&DIST=&GRP=&DATAMODE=

Next is the 1992 election, but remember Ross perot syphoned aff Repug votes, same kind of republican pattern
http://election.dos.state.fl.us/elections/resultsarchive/DetailRpt.Asp?ELECTIONDATE=11/3/92&RACE=PRE&PARTY=&DIST=&GRP=&DATAMODE=

Next is the 1996 election
http://election.dos.state.fl.us/elections/resultsarchive/DetailRpt.Asp?ELECTIONDATE=11/5/96&RACE=PRE&PARTY=&DIST=&GRP=&DATAMODE=

And Finally the 2000 election
http://election.dos.state.fl.us/elections/resultsarchive/DetailRpt.Asp?ELECTIONDATE=11/7/00&RACE=PRE&PARTY=&DIST=&GRP=&DATAMODE=

So despite the High Democratic registration, many of these "Dems" vote Republican.

[Blue Wally]

32. Harry Byrd Democrats

They stay Democratic in their local elections for Sheriff and County Supervisor where the "good ole boys" are still Democratic, but go to the Republicans in the national election voting against those "limp-wristed liberals".

[pschoeb]

33. Thanks that's what I suspected

So the strange swings are due to ustogether site, basing projections for these counties based on registration, rather than historical voting trends.