Forgive me, I screwed-up. Warren County

[harmonyguy]

On Dec 23rd I started a thread showing what I believed was a strange anomaly in the Warren County Recount Report. That thread is here.

After some dilligent effort by lizzieforKerry, who I believe, actually contacted the recounters themselves, I realize that I made a significant error in my original post.

It turns out that there are TWO precincts in Warren County, named almost identically with, would you believe, the identical number of registered voters? 789

Deerfield Township West and
Deerfield Township West A.

Their Codes are DEF T W ACK and DEF T WA AFT respectively.

When I read the original recount report, and tried to match it up with the Warren County Canvass Report, I searched through the Canvass Report based on the number of registered voters. When my search revealed DEF T W ACK, without having an understanding of Warren County's unique coding system, I erroneously thought that that was the precinct in question, and used it's actual vote count (626) instead of the correct vote count which was (650).

As a result of my error, one of my conclusions (that the recount was less than 3% of the ballots cast) was incorrect. In fact, the recount was based on 2872 ballot out of 95512 cast or 3.00695%, amazingly close for a random sampling, but over the 3% threshhold nonetheless.

I am grateful to LizzieForKerry for her efforts to get this clarified, and apologize to her and to the many others that joined the original thread of inquiry.

I am embarrased by this error - maybe I should listen to my wife who says I've been looking at too many numbers lately.

HG :cry:

[Soloflecks]

1. Hey, it happens.

You should be proud that you made the effort to do the analysis and even more proud that you have the guts to gracefully admit an error. Don't beat yourself up about it.

[blm]

2. The only people who never make mistakes are the ones who don't do anything

I think you gave it a great shot with what you had. Thanks for sharing the new info.

[LittleClarkie]

5. Unless you're George W. Bush

Then you don't make any.

Right now, our mistaken friend has one thing up on the president. He can admit a mistake. Well done!

[FogerRox]

3. Respect brother--some would have gone and hid--you didnt--kudos

will not stand down at this time. Because Patriots Act. http://www.51capitalmarch.com/
E-mail: [e-mail]

[Straight Shooter]

4. All is forgiven. Unstrap thyself from the whipping post.

:evilgrin:

[IndyOp]

6. No sweat. Take a break!

I have great faith in the work posted here *and* I usually wait until there has been plenty of feedback and time for rechecking before getting overly invested in the results. Ohio's weird county and ward system and this oddity just makes for unusual challenges.

:bounce:

[GregD]

7. what is it with Canadians?

Always freaking apologizing!

[harmonyguy]

10. Canadians ?

Oh, gee Greg - I'm sorry you feel that way !

Here, :beer:, have one on me!

HG

[GregD]

11. How ya doing?

You are from "up there" aren't ya?

I have a client who is in Toronto. He wrote to me this longwinded explanation of how all Canadians have this complex and feel compelled to constantly apologize for stuff. It was priceless.

[harmonyguy]

14. And it goes something like this......

...and sorry if anyone takes any offence at this. Originally by Colin Mochrie.

On behalf of Canadians everywhere I'd like to offer an apology to the United States of America. We haven't been getting along very well recently and for that, I am truly sorry.

I'm sorry we called George Bush a moron. He is a moron but, it wasn't nice of us to point it out. If it's any consolation, the fact that he's a moron shouldn't reflect poorly on the people of America. After all it's not like you actually elected him.

I'm sorry about our softwood lumber. Just because we have more trees than you doesn't give us the right to sell you lumber that's cheaper and better than your own.

I'm sorry we beat you in Olympic hockey. In our defense I guess our excuse would be that our team was much, much, much, much better than yours.

I'm sorry we burnt down your White House during the war of 1812. I notice you've rebuilt it! It's Very Nice.

I'm sorry about your beer. I know we had nothing to do with your beer but, we feel your pain.

I'm sorry about our waffling on Iraq. I mean, when you're going up against a crazed dictator, you wanna have your friends by your side. I realize it took more than two years before you guys pitched in against Hitler, but that was different. Everyone knew he had weapons.

Finally on behalf of all Canadians, I'm sorry that we're constantly apologizing for things in a passive-aggressive way which is really a thinly veiled criticism. I sincerely hope that you're not upset over this. We've seen what you do to countries you get upset with.

Thank you.

[GregD]

15. Woo HOO!

That rocks. Very funny. Thanks for a giggle.

[mikeylove]

8. much respect.

It takes cojones to admit big errors like that, but it strengthens your integrity and reliability. :thumbsup:

Besides, it's not hard to understand why a person unfamiliar with the voting systems and methodologies in place to make mistakes like that. I wouldn't worry about it too much if I were you.

[KaliTracy]

9. don't beat yourself up.... I just realized today

that I've been talking for weeks about Mason per Tim Burke's assessment that the machine disparity wasn't partisan (Mason had lines, West Chester didn't) -- not connecting the dots that Mason is in Warren County....

Have you seen this thread? Assessments of # of precincts to voters...( I started it, and some people found some really interesting connections....)

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=209744&mesg_id=209744

[Quakerfriend]

12. Hey harmony guy it's the effort that counts

love your posts! So, please don't stop crunching the numbers!!

[JoMama49]

13. It takes a real man (or woman) to admit his mistakes

and learn from them. Only an immature, mixed-up, adolescent thinking, emotionally disturbed person claims to have never made a mistake!

When we admit mistakes and learn from them, the mistake is made meaningful and powerful! Otherwise, we are just doomed to repeat the same mistake over and over.

[lizzieforkerry]

16. HG! I am so glad to have people helping us!!

Our system is so whacked that I didn't even catch your error and I live here and I am familiar with our coding system. The fact that you even thought to make sure we added up to 3% is amazing to me! I certainly hope I didn't make you feel that you were wasting my time or that I was upset that that you were wrong. If I did my only defense is that I have been very ill and actually dragged myself out of bed to forward you that response...my lack of response was only due to not being able to see that keyboard because I was so dizzy!! I love ya HG and thanks again for asking questions!! Please keep looking at our numbers- they stole it somehow, we will find it!!

[Pobeka]

17. Your ability to be embarrassed is a great strength.

If only our leaders were not to proud to admit a mistake the quagmire in Iraq would not be.

Thank you for your honesty!