How Many Votes Needed in Ohio (My Analysis)

[On the Road]

The Greg Palast article frustrated me. He claims Kerry won but didn't provide the numbers to back it up.

I tried to make an estimate based on the Palast article and internet searches. I would appreciate any help with the missing elements (margin needed for a recount and the estimated number of absentee ballots):

OFFICIAL COUNT:
Bush              2,796,147
Kerry             2,659,664
Badnarik             14,331   
Peroutka             11,614
------------     ----------
Total             5,481,756 


Difference          138,483 
% of Vote                 2.49%


SCENARTIO 1: TO WIN	
Uncounted Votes:	

Provisional:         155,000
x %Successful             89%
                     -------
	             137,950


Spoiled:              92,672
	
= Net Votes	
Outstanding          230,622 
	
x % to Kerry	          80.1%
	     
= Tot Kerry          184,728 
- Tot bush            45,894 
                      ------
Difference           138,834  VOTES


TO WIN BY             +351 votes



SCENARIO 2: TO FORCE RECOUNT
Official Margin:       138,483 

% Needed 
for Recount:              0.50% (?)
= Recount Threshold     27,409 

Votes Needed to 
Force Recount:         111,074 
Uncounted Votes:	

Provisional:           155,000   (source: Greg Palast)
x %Successful               89%
                       -------
	               137,950

= Net Votes	
Outstanding	       230,622 
	
% to Kerry                  74.2%
	
Tot Kerry              171,122 
Tot Bush	        59,500 
----------              ------
TO FORCE RECOUNT       111,621 

There are also absenteed ballots. Don't know the estimate yet or whether there is one.

This is quite a hill to climb. It's not clear whether absentee ballots will help or hurt Kerry. And the spoiled votes would probably not be put into play outside a recount. But this is what it would seem to take.

[GreenPartyVoter]

1. Talk to sniggles and redsoxliberal

-----------------------------------------------------------
FIGHT! Take this country back one town and state at a time!
http://www.geocities.com/greenpartyvoter/electionreform.htm

[Marnieworld]

2. For the first time I found a reason to laugh about this

"Talk to sniggles and redsoxliberal"? Our democracy will be saved by someone named sniggles. Sniggles to the rescue. Save us Sniggles.

The revolution is on the internet and we all have these silly aliases. These are the heroes. Long live sniggles!

[GreenPartyVoter]

4. *grin* It's something, ain't it? Heck, we might get saved by 14 yr olds!

We have a good size young folk contingent here.

-----------------------------------------------------------
FIGHT! Take this country back one town and state at a time!
http://www.geocities.com/greenpartyvoter/electionreform.htm

[Eloriel]

8. And they are top notch folks, too

I adore them, and am SO glad to see these ultra-bright, very liberal, very proactive young people at DU. Very heartening, very reassuring.

[redsoxliberal]

3. we have almost 8,000 votes to take away from the differencial

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x21053

[NewYorkerfromMass]

5. can someone update this with the number of false Bush votes in Ohio?

also, provisionbal ballots have not been counted so we don't know how many we're down by yet.

[wiggs]

6. Don't understand why people are looking for vote differences

It seems to me that you don't have to prove that there are enough votes in question to turn the election around, you just have to show that fraud has occured in some portion of the votes, invalidating the election.

If fraud can be shown for part of the process, it calls into doubt the entire process. Just because, in some counties, the trail was covered well enough doesn't mean fraud didn't occur throughout.

I could be wrong, but we don't have to find enough fraudulent votes to make up the difference between Kerry and Bush, we just have to find conclusive fraud in the first place and imply that the whole thing is un-certifiable, unless a manual count shows otherwise.

If you can show, in a court of law, that a witness is lying in part of the testimony, pretty much the whole testimony is shot.

[jjanpundt]

7. What happens then? If the fraud is proven

and the votes uncertifiable, what recourse is there? A new voting day? A re-vote of just the affected counties or the entire state? Is this unprecedented or are there provisions in the election laws to cover every contingency? (I need to do some research on election history - this is unexplored territory to me.)

[wiggs]

9. Kind of throws a monkey wrench into everything doesn't it?

Showing some fraud is the first step and that should case doubt on everything else. Tracing it to individuals would be a gratifying course of action, if unlikely (unless there's a whistleblower).

This is the sort of thing that once it gets going, other anomalies crop up and contribute to one big ugly mess that someone must pay for, politically and otherwise. Imagine if people began to suspect that the last few elections were not kosher. Even if it merely adds to general distrust of this government, it is a worthy undertaking if true.