After 7:30pm, only 35% of voters voted for Kerry? - someone check my math

[shiina]

             Kerry's numbers, percent of vote

                                         final
           3pm raw     7:30pm raw     "corrected" 
          ---------   ------------  ----------------- 
East          58           58               56 

Midwest       50           50               48  

South         44           45               42 

West          53           53               50 

ALL           51           51               48 

1st column - poll is 60% done. (8347 of 13,660 respondents)
2nd column - poll is 80% done. (11,027 of 13,660 respondents)
3rd column - "corrected" to match the official
totals

So looking at columns 2 and 3 give us our best look at the
difference between the exit polls and the official results.  

Notice how columns 1 and 2 nearly match...
The 80% of us who voted before 7:30 and the 20% who voted
after had extremely different voting patters.  This does not
make sense.  

Now, read this carefully...I can't think of a way to explain
it very well.

We have the 7:30 results, when 80% of the poll was completed.
Now, you cannot get an accurate final result if your data is
wrong when it's 80% done. So in order for the final exit poll
results to be accurate, the 7:30 numbers would have to be
accurate as well. 

We don't have the final exit poll results, but we know what
they would have to have been if * really won and the exit poll
is accurate: they would have to match the official results. In
order for this to happen, the last 20% (2,643) of the voters
they polled would have had to have responded like this:

Kerry : 934 votes - 35%
Bush : 1,704 votes - 64% 

Of course, if all are accurate (the 7:30 numbers, the final
exit poll numbers, and the official results) then this
reflects the voting patterns of the people all across the
nation. 

In other words, either the exit poll was completely wrong, the
official results are wrong or ... of the people who voted
after 7:30, only about 35% of them voted for Kerry.

--------------------------------------------------------------------
[Edit to add sources]
The numbers are straight from Mitofsky
(http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/pdfs/Mitofsky4zonedata/)

Found on this thread
(http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x214701)

And this one 
(http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x215277)
---------------------------------------------------------------------


 

[EFerrari]

1. After 7:30, Karl Rove made a phone call?

Sorry, not a number person, but the probability (if that's a word I know how to use) of such a split seems as unlikely as possible.

[shiina]

15. Numbers from 3 and 7:30 ARE ALREADY WEIGHTED, not completely raw

damn, too late to edit

just wanted to make that clear

[Lucky Luciano]

2. This is very unlikely, but the right will brush it off

by saying they were coming to vote after work, whereas dems are welfare recipients that have time to vote anytime during the day. :eyes:

[EFerrari]

3. Which is hilarious, given that Red States are welfare clients of

Blue States.

[teach1st]

10. I had a Republican use that argument with me...

...with a straight face, too.

[tngledwebb]

16. MSM won't touch it either,

unless with Rovian spin points.

[Wilms]

4. Corrections are a bitch, eh?

You don't need much math to look at those columns and see it.

And it fits with everything we understand about that day, except for the part where the thugs win.

Can you edit to provide the source??

[lostnfound]

5. They manipulate demographic groups to force a match with reported votes

From what I understand: Once 'results' from election boards start coming in, the pollsters look at the polls vs the 'results'; and they say 'wow, we must have underrepresented the actual number of white male voters' or whatever.. They don't take a straight average of those polled; they multiply it by demographic factors to supposedly balance out for uneven sample sizes between men and women, blacks/whites/hispanic/asian, etc. When polls don't match results, they force a match by adjusting the multiplier factors. The representative of Zogby in the Conyers hearing as much as said so.

[shiina]

13. that's BS

That may be what they do, but it's the most unsound practice I've ever heard of. If that kind of adjustment is necessary, then the polls are absolutely meaningless. Indeed, all statistics are meaningless because they're all based on sampling and that assumes you have an accurate weighting of different groups.

Other countries usually get exit polls that match the official counts and sometimes (when there is fraud) they get ones that don't. How do they get correct numbers consistently without "adjusting" them? We know they don't adjust them because if they did, they would never get ones that didn't match.

I mean, really...it would be like going to the bank and telling them to add a thousand bucks to your account because the numbers didn't add up in your bank book.

[Brundle_Fly]

6. so in america....

people work on the day of the vote?

here we dont work, and we close the bars.

[EFerrari]

7. Very wise. Yes, labor is nearly dead here. Reagan killed unions.

[Brundle_Fly]

8. and at 8 pm we open the bars.

and bitch as we watch all the parties we hate win.

;)

[EFerrari]

9. We need to adopt your system. lol

[EuroObserver]

11. Closing the bars is interesting

- and I guess you use paper ballots in transparent boxes and plenty of observers, am I right?

[fasttense]

12. The Exit Poll was completely wrong

Only in America exit polls are wrong. See we are a world power but we haven't figured out how to pick precincts and ask questions of voters so that we get an accurate representation of the American public. No, No No, here in America exit polling means nothing and reflects noting. The media conglomerate who had the poll done, only did it for fun. Wasn't meant to prove anything. Now go back to sleep and let us feed you the news as we see it.

[berniew1]

14. When are absentees added? Repubs do big absentee push.

They spend a lot of money on Absentee effort(they have lots) and even have been known to do a lot of absentee stuffing. You should always pay special attention to the absentees as thats where elections are often changed.

[papau]

17. I found interesting the 100 absentee ballots out ,400 votes recorded in NM

I believe they were called phantom votes - and the election folks said they were not interested in doing any follow up!

[EFerrari]

18. So do we now as it's a way to avoid BB voting. So, we can't

assume any more that those votes go right.