Aug 2004 US News WR Says Exit Polls More Reliable Than Elec Vote

[McCamy Taylor]

The Story was about the Recall in Venezuela, the Exit Pollster was dear old Warren Mitoksky the technology was dear old Electronic Voting. Read the article for yourself. In August, the mainstream media was convinced that exit polls do not lie, electrinic voting machines lie.

http://www.usnews.com/usnews/opinion/baroneweb/mb_040820.htm

I am going to email them and ask why their opinion of exit polls and electronic voting suddenly changed.

[Calvinist Basset]

1. Why stop there?

Let's call and ask them, and call Mitofsky too, and our senators and reps!

[McCamy Taylor]

2. Here is the "glowing" letter I sent them

Dear Editor;

I was reading an old edition, and I can across your story about the Venezuela presidential recall. How prophetic! You did an excellent job of describing why exit polls are more reliable than vote tallies, especially when the vote are cast electronically.

I have recommended this article to my friends who are looking for answers to what has happened to the United States in our recent presidential election. I look forward to further analysis by you on this topic.


:loveya:

[Carolab]

3. Hah, that's not all...Here's another Barone article on OUR OWN POLLS....

Then read what Barone had to say IN ANOTHER ARTICLE WRITTEN NOVEMBER 3 about OUR election polls. Such blatant hypocrisy.



Why were the initial exit poll results more Democratic than the actual tabulated vote? No one is sure, though the national sample at midafternoon, which showed Kerry ahead 50 to 49 percent, was 58 percent women. My own suspicion is that some Democrats—at the command level, or somewhere below—had an election-day project of slamming the results. New Hampshire, Minnesota and Pennsylvania initial exit poll results had huge margins for Kerry—much larger percentages than he won in any pre-election poll. If somebody had slipped some Democratic operative the list of exit poll sites—40 to 50 sites in each critical state—he or she could have slipped several hundred operatives into the polling places to take the exit poll ballots and vote for Kerry. The results would have shown Kerry much farther ahead than he actually was and, broadcast through drugdereport.com and other sources, could have heartened Kerry supporters during the afternoon and disheartened Bush supporters. When I was active in Democratic politics, in 1964-80, it would have occurred to us to do no such thing. But Democrats these days are so filled with a sense of grievance and with a feeling of justification for employing any dirty tactics to win, that this is not unthinkable. If people can game the exit polls, there's not much point to having exit polls any more.

At Fox News during the afternoon and early evening we assumed, based on the exit poll results, that Kerry was overwhelmingly likely to win. As I began to look at the actual election results, a different picture emerged. I looked at results in Florida and Ohio for small and medium-sized counties that had 100 percent or nearly that much of returns reported, and found that turnout was way up and Bush percentages were up from 2000 also. This was evidence that the Bush organizational activities and turnout drives had paid off. Pasco County, Fla.—a retirement haven just north of Tampa and St. Petersburg—had turnout up 40 percent and the Bush percentage rising from a 48 percent loss in 2000 to a 53.9 percent win in 2004. The Democrats' turnout efforts in heavily Democratic counties like Broward County, Fla., could not match that. Hence Florida went solidly for Bush in 2004, as it had for his brother, Gov. Jeb Bush, in 2002.



http://www.usnews.com/usnews/opinion/baroneweb/mb_041103.htm

[buzzard]

9. I would think if polls showed Kerry ahead it would rouse the Republicans

to get out and vote not vice versa.

[McCamy Taylor]

4. Since stories can sometimes "disappear" here are the good parts:

"One weapon against such fraud is the exit poll. As Doug Schoen of Penn Schoen points out, his firm has conducted exit polls in Mexico and, just a few days ago, in the Dominican Republic, which produced results very close to the election results. His partner Mark Penn points out that the firm conducted two previous exit polls in Venezuela, both of which were on the mark. Warren Mitofsky's firm, Mitofsky International, has produced exit polls with similar results in Mexico and Russia. Mitofsky recalls that in 1994, Mexican President Carlos Salinas, seeking credibility with foreign investors for that year's Mexican elections, asked him for advice on what to do. Allow independent exit polls, Mitofsky advised, sponsored by the media, and allow the results to be announced soon after the voting. Mitofsky's exit poll results, announced soon after the polls closed, did in fact come close to the official results, as did another Mitofsky poll in 2000. More important, they provided independent confirmation of the fairness of the count."

"In contrast, it would be far easier, given the touch-screen voting method and central tabulation used in Venezuela, for the central counting center to falsify the results. All you would have to do is program the computer to count every sixth "yes" vote as a "no." That would transform a 59-41 vote to 42-58. And the results would still show pro-Chavez areas voting for him and anti-Chavez areas going the other way—just by different margins.

"Jimmy Carter did not remain in Venezuela long after the polling and, after a superficial look at the central counting center, pronounced the election fair and the result accurate. He could not have determined whether the counting computer was misprogrammed. Chavez had every motive for cheating: polls before the election mostly showed him under 50 percent, and he should have reasonably concluded that those not for him were against. Adjusting the count was one sure way to win.


"ndependent exit polls are one of the guarantors of democracy in countries emerging from or under authoritarian rule. Political junkies may think it amusing that there is such a wide discrepancy between an exit poll and official results. But for people in Venezuela and perhaps in other parts of Latin America it's more likely to be tragic."

[McCamy Taylor]

5. Here are Mitofksy's own words about exit poll/vote tally discrepancies

"I find it extraordinary that, with only one exit poll and no quick count, people are willing to take one side's word," he told me. "This doesn't smell good."


:eyes:

[latteromden]

6. WHOA. Deja vu. Exit polls showing nearly the exact opposite results as the

final count (Venezuela: 59-41 to 42-58; USA: 51-48 to 48-51). Hm.

[s-cubed]

7. kick

[McCamy Taylor]

8. For all we know the US paid the exit pollsters to lie to discredit

Chavez whom they want out, but let's assume for a moment that they didnt and that the pollsters were doing a fair job and that Chavez is a ruthless dictator who will do whatever it takes to stay in power.

What does that make W?

[TexasChick]

11. Hmmm...this one's a tuffy, McCamy. Would that make the Chimp a

ruthless dictator who will do anything to stay in power? Do I win a prize?

[McCamy Taylor]

13. Naw, he is still just a chimp. It makes his handlers ruthless dcitators

who would do anything to stay in power.

:P

[TexasChick]

16. LOL! Gosh darn it! I don't get my prize! LOL! n/t

[McCamy Taylor]

17. Here's a hug.

:hug:

[TexasChick]

18. Thanks!

[zimba]

14. I tend to think that the US did fuck with the polling, both

pre and exit. Chavez had the support of the populace.

The US was also suspected of being responsible for masterminding the botched coup attempt. In fact, the coup investigator who was recently killed down there had told someone a couple of days before he was murdered that he had proof of US invovlement. Shades of School of the Americas.

[zimba]

10. Its laughable.

Here exit polls are being tauted as accurate when discussing possible fraud by a government run by a socialist. They were considered accurate enough to change the outcome of elections in the Ukraine and Russia. But for an election in a right wing dominated government, the attitude is;

"Exit polls. We dont need no stinking exit polls"

[rdmccur]

12. Didn't you know

that the laws of probability don't hold once you cross within the US border?

[spooked911]

15. Good catch!

And good luck!

[Straight Shooter]

19. I wonder if Mitofsky released his raw exit data to prove his accuracy

And, if so, to whom did he release the raw data, and how soon after the election?

Things that make you go "hmmm....."

Excellent catch, McCamy :thumbsup:

[McCamy Taylor]

20. In case you missed it last night read how Mitoksky says that

exit polls are way more reliable than electronic votes in this August 2004 article in US News and World Reports.