Butler County Study: Something's Fishy Here

[Firespirit]

In Butler County, Ohio, in 2004, Democratic Supreme Court Chief Justice candidate C. Ellen Connally apparently received more votes than the Presidential ticket of Kerry/Edwards. I did a small study of the 2004 Butler County elections and compared them to the 1992 elections. The following interesting points were uncovered:


1. In 1992, turnout was 76.65 percent. In 2004, it was 70.99 percent.

2. In 1992, 73.27% of the voters cast a vote for Chief Justice. In 2004, 76.92% did.

3. In 1992, GOP candidate Moyer won 50.07% of these votes. Democratic candidate Gorman won 42.55%. An independent candidate, Haffey, received 7.38%. Of the GOP and Democratic vote only, Moyer received 54.06% to Gorman's 45.94%.

4. For comparison, in 2004, GOP candidate Moyer received 52.63%, and Democratic candidate Connally received 47.37%. There were no other candidates.


From this, I draw the conclusion that the 2004 results for Butler County for the Supreme Court are not anomalous.

1992 was not an ideal choice for an election because there was a strong third-party candidate running. Studies have shown that Perot drew his support about 50-50 from both major-party candidates, so for the purposes of comparing across 2 parties, I have created data points for what Bush and Clinton's 1992 vote would have been had Perot not been a candidate.


5. This results in Bush Sr. receiving 57.91% of the vote and Clinton 40.12%.

6. When Bush Sr.'s vote is calculated as a percentage of the total GOP and Democratic vote, he receives 61.50 percent. Clinton receives 38.50 percent of the GOP + Democratic votes.


I also compared the Democratic and Republican primary figures for 1992 and 2004. Both years had similar situations: A sitting GOP president, and a Democratic nomination that was essentially wrapped up.


7. In 1992, the Democratic Primary ballots comprised 35.23% of all partisan ballots cast in the primaries. In 2004, they comprised 36.29%. GOP Primary participation increased 37.8% from 1992. Democratic Primary participation increased 44.2% from 1992.


I also looked at the provisional and late absentee ballot figures for Butler County for 2004. Of these, 3,131 were for Bush and 2,049 were for Kerry.


8. Bush received 60.44% of the combined Bush + Kerry total for late ballots. Kerry received 39.55%. It should be noted that several hundred provisional ballots were disqualified, and no one knows how they were cast.


If the Democratic Party, and Democratic candidates, were improving in Butler County--as the Supreme Court race and the Democratic Primary showed that they were--then why were the 2004 Presidential votes not reflecting that?


9. Recapping.
1992, Moyer's raw numbers: 50.07%
1992, Moyer's support as a percentage of GOP + Dem vote: 54.06%
2004, Moyer's support: 52.63%

10. Recapping.
1992, Bush's raw numbers: 47.58%
1992, allocating 50% of the Perot vote to Bush: 57.91%
1992, Bush's support as a percentage of GOP + Dem vote: 61.50%
2004, Bush2's percentage of late-counted ballots: 60.44%
2004, Bush2's percentage of the countywide vote: 66.14%!!!


Something looks fishy here.

Have at it.

[Florida_Geek]

1. Let me guess

Opt Scan or TS were used for "2004, Bush2's percentage of the countywide vote: 66.14%!!!"

I am of the opinion that 3-4% of Kerry's votes were re-directed to Bush. This would account for the extra 6% between late-counted ballots and countywide vote

[Firespirit]

2. They have punch cards.

I believe that the central tabulator was rigged.

[KerryOn]

4. I belive so as well, ....

and I think Arnbeck thinks so to. See post below.

[KerryOn]

3. Arnbeck Law Suit is Contesting Butler County

They are asking that 23,392 votes be added to Kerry and 23,392 votes be deducted from Bush.

Here is how they arrived at the numbers:
((BushVotes-MoyerVotes)-(KerryVotes-ConnelyVotes))/2

here is a spread sheet that I created showing all the contested counties for President and Suprem Court Justice:
http://my.core.com/~dlrslr/OhioDisputedVotesSC.htm

[SicTransit]

5. Error - you allocate only 50% of Perot vote to Bush

in order to see what the 2-way percentage is. That's not how it was. It is widely acknowledged that Perot syphoned votes from Bush, not equally from Bush and Clinton. So what numbers do you get if you allocate 80% of Perot vote to Bush? 67.5%. Close enough to the 2004's 66% I would say.