My Electoral Fantasy

[ozymandius]

I almost put this in the Lounge. Because it is, after all, a fantasy. But I think it could merit more serious discussion after learning of an occasional "defection" by an elector. Such instances are rare.

The magic number for a presidential candidate to win the electoral vote is 270. We know that Bush has more than the necessary number to win the electoral vote. But what would happen if defections, particularly in a populist Blue State like Ohio were to switch?

First of all, a member of the Ohio delegation could not switch, as written into state law. But I use this state for rhetorical purposes. Some characteristics of Ohio could be applied elsewhere: The economy has been hobbled by Bush's policies; It has a strong labor tradition; It has an idiot Republican governor who ostensibly has gone to great lengths to cripple the state's employment practices and business investment.

So I submit to you the list of states whose delegates are not bound by either law or pledge to vote in line with the popular vote.

No Legal Requirement
Electors in these States are not bound by State Law to cast their vote for a specific candidate:

ARIZONA - 10 Electoral Votes
ARKANSAS - 6 Electoral Votes
DELAWARE - 3 Electoral Votes
GEORGIA - 15 Electoral Votes
IDAHO - 4 Electoral Votes
ILLINOIS - 21 Electoral Votes
INDIANA - 11 Electoral Votes
IOWA - 7 Electoral Votes
KANSAS - 6 Electoral Votes
KENTUCKY - 8 Electoral Votes
LOUISIANA - 9 Electoral Votes
MINNESOTA - 10 Electoral Votes
MISSOURI - 11 Electoral Votes
NEW HAMPSHIRE - 4 Electoral Votes
NEW JERSEY - 15 Electoral Votes
NEW YORK - 31 Electoral Votes
NORTH DAKOTA - 3 Electoral Votes
PENNSYLVANIA - 21 Electoral Votes
RHODE ISLAND - 4 Electoral Votes
SOUTH DAKOTA - 3 Electoral Votes
TENNESSEE - 11 Electoral Votes
TEXAS - 34 Electoral Votes
UTAH - 5 Electoral Votes
WEST VIRGINIA - 5 Electoral Votes

http://www.archives.gov/federal_register/electoral_college/laws.html


Taken from the Federal Register website:

How is it possible for the electoral vote to produce a different result than the nation-wide popular vote?

It is important to remember that the President is not chosen by a nation-wide popular vote. The electoral vote totals determine the winner, not the statistical plurality or majority a candidate may have in the nation-wide vote totals. Electoral votes are awarded on the basis of the popular vote in each State.

Note that 48 out of the 50 States award electoral votes on a winner-takes-all basis (as does DC). For example, all 55 of California's electoral votes go to the winner of that State election, even if the margin of victory is only 50.1 percent to 49.9 percent.

In a multi-candidate race where candidates have strong regional appeal, as in 1824, it is quite possible that a candidate who collects the most votes on a nation-wide basis will not win the electoral vote. In a two-candidate race, that is less likely to occur. But it did occur in the Hayes/Tilden election of 1876 and the Harrison/Cleveland election of 1888 due to the statistical disparity between vote totals in individual State elections and the national vote totals. This also occured in the 2000 presidential election, where George W. Bush received fewer popular votes than Albert Gore Jr., but received a majority of electoral votes.

If defections were to occur, we could see the same divisiveness that has become the trademark of the first Bush administration. Claims of illegitimacy would abound. Remember when Hillary Clinton pledged to work toward the abolition of the electoral college when she won her Senate seat? I suspect the same would happen again among people across the aisle.

But then that would not necessarily be a bad thing, in my opinion. The electoral college is an anachronism at this point. The only exception I would consider sensible to abolishing the Electoral College is if it were to be restructured. By this, I mean, in that EC vote is proportional to the popular vote as is the case in Maine and Nebraska.

Like I said - This is just a fantasy.

[oregonjen]

1. I have a fantasy too

With all the work Bev Harris is doing, I'm hoping that the "results" of this election would turn around and Kerry would be elected. My stomach is turning right now thinking about it. It's a fantasy, but dammit, I want it to come true!

[asjr]

2. I have thought the same thing. It would take someone very brave

to do it. But who knows? Could happen.

[PeteGammons]

3. Get a grip

"Could happen."

Couldn't happen. Electors are hard-core. And you'd need to turn not 1, but 18 of them. (286-16 = 270. 286-17 = 269, * wins with the Thugs in the house.)

Fantasy doesn't even approach it...