National Exit Polls - Ohio/Florida/Iowa - do not match Pre-Election Polls

[chorti]

Please see my full report by downloading the pdf at:
<http://www.indybay.org/news/2005/01/1713046.php>

Here is the summary - I compared the question contained in the exit polls - 'When did you decide who you were going to vote for?' with the voter preference trends from the state- and national pre-election polls. Guess what? The blue battleground states are right on target - the two polls match. But the red battleground states - Ohio, Florida, Iowa, New Mexico - are way off. The exit poll overestimates Bush's support consistently by four to seven points.

One of the best clues for voter fraud is manipulation of the exit polls in order to cover up the fraud. This report is full of examples of exit poll inconsistencies which point to exit poll manipulation and false weighting, which in turn, point to the possibility of widespread vote fraud.

For example - "A very similar phenomena happened in Ohio and Pennsylvania. The pre-election polls showed similar trends for these two neighboring states, with Bush having 2 to 3 more points of support in Ohio than in Pennsylvania from October 14 on. Kerry won Pennsylvania by 2.5 points. Yet the exit poll data consistently showed a 7 to 9 point difference in the support for Bush in Ohio and Pennsylvania. Again, the question arises, why did the pre-election pollsters accurately forecast the Republican groundswell that fell short in Pennsylvania but failed to forecast that same groundswell (7 to 9 points stronger) that carried Ohio for Bush?" Or, perhaps it was because the exit poll for Ohio was changed in order to cover up the fraud...

Or this: "More sloppiness is shown in the West Region. Kerry won the election-day deciding voters by a 56-40 margin in this region. Yet he lost these voters in California by a 47 to 44 margin. California makes up slightly less than half of the voters in the West region, so Kerry would have needed to win the remainder of the region by a margin of about 30 points in order for the 56-40 regional margin to be true. Another scenario would be a fix in the California exit poll in order to match an unexpected gain for Bush in the reported vote. This is supported by another inconsistency: Kerry was winning the voters who decided the day-before and two days before the election by a margin of 58 to 36, yet he lost the day-of voters by 3 points."

I'll be in meetings all day, so I may not be able to check back and answer questions, etc.

[ladjf]

1. No shite!

[RollergirlVT]

2. what a great idea.

[pazarus]

3. I don't know much about...

exit polls, but aren't they a conglomeration of hundreds of sources, many working independently with different media groups? When and how and where would Republicans have access to bringing together the totals of the exit polls and manipulating them? I mean if they are conducted by Clearchannel then I understand, but I think they are compiled by the news sources themselves, such as CNN , the AP, etc. What is the theory behind how the fraud would actually take place, because I don't see it, and how many participants would it need working together?

I am a big fan of trusting the numbers and I think its a good idea to scrutinize huge errors (look at the ukraine), but this means we're talking about huge organized and coordinated fraud on more than one front, when investigators cant even prove small instances right now.

[proudbluestater]

4. "Official" Exit Polling was done by ONE organization

who claimed their entire computer system crashed for an hour. After that, the exit polls became "adjusted" by CNN to match the vote, or so they claim.

[m.standridge]

5. NZ "Scoop" site now said to have the "raw" CNN

exit poll screens, found a few days ago. It's in Japanese.
As to some of the other states:

well, factor in the pre-election polls, and how close they were getting in the election itself, and whether they had much in the way of paper trails in their voting systems.
Iowa may have been carried--narrowly--by Bush, but I suspect it was much closer than current figures.

I doubt that New Mexico was carried by Bush this time, and Colorada, though Bush possibly carried, it, was very, very close.
As for Nevada, one other state: I tend to think that Kerry probably actually carried it, but it was very close, less than 100 votes.
Insofar as Florida and Ohio: it's just like last time--it's unlikely anyone could really "call" either of those states for Bush with a straight face.

Although our staight-faced news media seems to have done it.
Well, I take that back: CBS didn't call Ohio until Kerry did.