Trying To Save the World Today (Nader & My Story of the Day)

IdaBriggs

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Fri Nov-05-04 05:55 PM
Original message

Trying To Save the World Today (Nader & My Story of the Day)

I put together an analysis of the New Hampshire voting data comparing 2000 and 2004 results; you can read it all at this webpage (if you really want to): http://www.invisibleida.com/New_Hampshire.htm

The bottom line is that, even though we won New Hampshire, the numbers don't add up the way they ought to (should have been a wider margin), and most of the discrepancies appear to occur in the largest precincts where one particular type of machine is used to count ballots: the Diebold AccuVote.

I'm a computer person by trade, and spent eight years of my career doing statistics for a major telecommunication company; trust me when I say these numbers DO NOT MAKE SENSE unless small, rural New Hampshirites suddenly decided to go more "liberal" than their big city neighbors. I've been in contact with several other folks who've been running the numbers for other states (Florida & Ohio in particular), and they are finding the same anomaly. I am not saying it was "stolen" -- I'm saying, as a computer person, we occasionally make mistakes, and one misplaced comma can sometimes mess things up, or reversing a TRUE/FALSE state, or an IF/THEN/ELSE statement. We geeks are human, and mistakes happen.

For the last two days I have been BEGGING for a manual recount. New Hampshire has a paper trail, and the easiest way to determine if a discrepancy exists is to compare RAW DATA (via manual hand recounts) with REPORTED DATA. This is NOT brain surgery, but I may need some myself after banging my head on walls for the last two days.

I was told the process would only cost $1000 and a signature from John Kerry. I have played the "Kevin Bacon" game for the last two days trying to reach either him or someone in his campaign so that I could get John Kerry to sign the damn paperwork so we could bring some accountability into the system; if the machines are doing funky things in one state, odds are pretty good they are probably doing the same thing in OTHER states. Choosing a state Kerry won was (I thought) a safe bet, plus New Hampshire is a reasonable state with a history of Integrity (despite anecdotal stories of this same problem occurring in both the 2002 election, and the primaries).

The Kerry folks refused to budge; no one could "find" John Kerry, and the deadline was fast approaching. At 5:00 p.m., the statute would lock away the paper ballots for good.

So, I asked the Nader folks for help. I told them the "dream thing" would be to recount ALL 34 states he was in, and they were willing to discuss it. They were understandably cautious about the political fallout, but another contact came through with the financing, and it looked like it was going to happen. I got several other people involved in this project with a guy named Tiki (who is awesome!) coordinating it with another DU'er so we knew the standards for each state, and received rapturous responses to my "want to help audit the numbers for 34 states?" request to the folks who have been involved in securing our vote for longer than I've been aware. It was looking good, and I was flying high. Screw John Kerry; if he was playing AWOL, then RALPH NADER could save the world.

The multiple levels of irony did not escape me.

And then everything fell apart in the last half hour. I couldn't get a hold of my "boots on the ground" on time to get to the right place with a check, which had now gone from $1000 total to $2000 + all expenses associated with recounting ($30K-$40K), and the financing backed out when the cost skyrocketed, and the deadline passed. But at least the Nader folks faxed over a (non-binding) request for a recount. :)

So, the next step is to investigate the other 33 states where Nader was on the ballot, and see if the numbers are as funky there as they were in New Hampshire. Each state has different rules governing whether or not an audit can be conducted, and it appears that the margin of error may push the ballots outside of that number. Maybe an appeal to the Federal Elections Commission? Not sure.

But I haven't slept in two days, and I'm tired. My hope was that demonstrating potential voter fraud in New Hampshire would trigger a NATIONWIDE recount, and I'll admit my fondest fantasies included a Kerry presidency and some well salted crow for *. I also would virtuously remind myself there was a chance the numbers were accurate, in which case this exercise would help me to heal and move on from the perception that the election was "stolen" instead of "won fairly", and meanwhile, the whole process would help insure the integrity of the election system. But, as soon as the clock struck 5:00 p.m., it looks like New Hampshire went bye-bye, unless something can be done about it....

So, say something nice to me, my friends. I'm feeling a little discouraged and beat down, and I could sure use some kind words from like minded people....oh, and some volunteer offers and promises of cash to fund any recount efforts would be appreciated, too. Seems a few of the big fund raising groups out there won't help challenge the votes if Nader is the one signing the request forms, and Kerry can't be found....