Voter Turnout Estimate for Baker County!! WTF!! 332%!!

[adolfo]

I've been compiling data and programming all night, can someone make sense of these numbers? I'm sure my calculations are accurate.

Baker County:

http://www.recountflorida.com/ivrs_precincts.php?county=Baker

The same formula is used on Volusia and Orange county and don't look like anything close to Baker County:

http://www.recountflorida.com/ivrs_precincts.php?county=Volusia
http://www.recountflorida.com/ivrs_precincts.php?county=Orange

FORMULA

formula: (candidate votes) / (registered voters in party) * 100

[donheld]

1. They let the Gnats vote.

I think gnats are all freepers.

[Lil]

2. WowVery interesting precinct stats, Adolfo. I sent you email.

You may already have this, but it you want to compare 2000 with this I sent you a contact email address.

[adolfo]

19. Thanks

Thanks Lil

[Lil]

20. It's great that you have a site for all the data. A "1st formula" may not

be correct, but by collecting all the data and putting it out there, it will attract others who have other forumulas and research under their belts. Keep it up. It's hard, tedious work. I KNOW! :-)

[ClintonTyree]

3. Did you count the absentee and early voting numbers?

Although they appear highly suspect as well. You're right, something stinks here and it's got that Republican fascist scent to it.

[pazarus]

4. calculations are correct, wrong formula

your data takes each percentage as a measure of how many voted for people only in their own party. The fact that there were only 262 registered Republicans and 618 Bush votes just shows that a lot of people registered Democrat and voted Republican.

The percentages should be out of the total registered voters, not just the registered from each party, then they would make sense. I mean if the case you are looking for is that votes were switched to Repulican side unfairly, then tahts a different story, but if I remember correctly, these are counties that tend to vote for Republicans in national elections regardless of their official registered party.

[newyawker99]

12. Hi pazarus!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[adolfo]

18. Dixiecrat theory doesn't jive

If you take a look at other counties there is no drastic "defection" from the democratic registered voters. My intention is to determine the percentage of votes by party and not total overall. So far, the numbers are out of whack in some smaller counties while others aren't so bad.

Could this be evidence of fraud? I think the "Dixiecrat theory" needs to be studied further. Are these people too lazy to change their political party status?

Personally, I doubt someone would vote for a man like Bush and remain registered as a Democrat. Wouldn't you have to be a diehard Republican to even consider Bush?

We will need to look at election 2000 data to get a better picture.

[shiina]

5. Definitely very suspicious

Those numbers are very, uh, funky.  

Precinct  Bush/RegisteredReps  Kerry/RegisteredDems
1A             618/1707        384/262   
2A             791/639         330/1789
3A             997/765         202/1937
4A             88/24           16/143
4B             234/142         53/360
4C             441/313         92/693
4D             360/26          68/510
5A             890/146         146/1548
6A             103/31          60/190 
----------------------------------------     
Average %       14.6%           189.8%
----------------------------------------

I would suggest the huge numbers of people who voted absentee
and early might affect this but those went overwhelmingly to
Bush as well.  And other counties should have similar numbers
if that was the case.  

[DoYouEverWonder]

7. A couple of corrections to your chart

In precinct 1A, you switched the numbers for the registered voters.

It was 262 registered REP and 1707 registered DEM.


In precinct 4D, there were 226 registered REP.

In precinct 5A, there were 1548 registered REP.

[DoYouEverWonder]

10. I posted the wrong # for precinct 5A

It should be 602 registered REP. Your number for registered DEM was correct.

[Lil]

6. Adolfo, what does this error message mean. . .

. . . when I select VIEW RAW DATA for some of the counties?

"Precinct","Bush","Kerry","RegisteredReps","RegisteredDems"

Warning: mysql_fetch_array(): supplied argument is not a valid MySQL result resource in /home/.haran/recountflorida/recountflorida.com/ivrs_datadump.php on line 18

[adolfo]

9. Gotta fix it

Only counties with information in the table will list the data. Empty tables will dispay an error. Sorry, small bug.

[Lil]

17. No problem. I was just wondering if there were "full" table with info.. .

. . .that I couldn't see. Thanks.

[baldguy]

8. Alright, folks, move along. Nothing to see here!

Let our new Republican Overlords do their job.

[Zynx]

11. Nothing odd here at all.

22,259 people live in Baker county and there were about 10,000 voters, a big increase from the 8,000 last time, but Baker has been a rapidly growing county for the last forty years. There was a similar increase between 1988 and 1992. The numbers are perfectly in sync.

[RaulVB]

13. Hey, who "cares"...

"*" "won"...didn't you see the "Democratic leaders" endorsing him, yesterday?

[KittyWampus]

15. Endorse? Your Hyperbole Displays The Lack Of Understanding

running rampant here on DU.

Oh, and your comment was completely off topic and of no use to the Opening Poster.

[RaulVB]

16. Censors are welcomed in the WH...

Try applying for the job.

[emlev]

14. has Bernie1 looked at this?