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annerevere Donating Member (286 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 12:09 PM
Original message
Calling all DUers - My husband is a Ph.D. statistician and
(professor). After looking at the paper/non-paper graphs on the front page, he would like to do a statistical study to determine whether fraud has occurred or not. He is widely published. If he finds interesting and statistically significant findings, we plan on contacting the media (I am a retired Ph.D. prof).

What we need from you: any websites that can help us collect the data. Any online sources, ideas, anything that may help.

Remember: if we find something big, we're going public. Coming from a published academic at a recognized university, could be interesting.

Please help.

Thanks.
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merbex Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 12:10 PM
Response to Original message
1. I would say you came to the right site
thanks for all your efforts
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BayStateBoy Donating Member (562 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 01:36 PM
Response to Reply #1
17. Here are some comments & links on the voting (fraud)
Two Undeniable Facts:
1. Exist Polls only differed significantly from vote tallies in states using BBV or combination methods including BBV. (NC, NM, NH, FL, OH, PA)

2. In every case G. W. Bush was the recipient of significant additional votes (5%-7%) and Kerry was always the loser of votes.


http://nytimes.com/2004/11/05/politics/campaign/05poll....

The presumption of a Kerry victory built a head of steam late in the day, when the national survey showed the senator with a statistically significant lead, one falling outside the survey's margin of error.
"The last wave of national exit polls we received, along with many other subscribers, showed Kerry winning the popular vote by 51 percent to 48 percent, if true, surely enough to carry the Electoral College,''


Historically, Exit polls are accurate within 2%

The deviation is the difference in percent between the first exit polls and the vote.

All the following states final results agreed with the exit polls

THEY ALL HAD PAPER TRAILS.

State...% voting deviation from exit polls
+2B means the change was + 2 for Bush

AZ 0
LA +2B
MI 0
IA +1B
ME 0 <no BBV
NV 0 < paper trail
MO -1B
IL 0 paper ballot
..............................................................
Now look at the states that were in play where there was NO paper trail. They ALL had Bush doing MUCH better than the Exit polls indicated.

They were ALL WAY OUTSIDE the 2% MoE.

WI +4B
PA +5B
OH +6B
FL +7B
MN +7B
NH +15B
NC +9B
CO +4B
NM +3B

ALL RESULTS WERE SKEWED TO BUSH!

Palm Beach County Logs 88,000 More Votes Than Voters November 5, 2004 04:56 PM

According to the official election results posted on the Palm Beach County election website, 542,835 ballots were cast for a presidential candidate while only 454,427 voters turned out for the election (including absentee). This leaves a discrepancy of 88,408 votes cast for the presidential candidates...
Other election oddities occurred throughout Florida with some counties registering a 400% increase in expected voter turnout among Republicans while Democrats supposedly experienced a -60% decline in expected support within certain counties. The 50+ counties experiencing the high percentage fluctuations in expected turnout used optical scan voting machines on November 2nd.

http://www.washingtondispatch.com/spectrum/archives/000715.html

http://ustogether.org/Florida_Election.htm

http://www.michigancityin.com/articles/2004/11/04/news/news02.txt

Michigan City, IN: The day after a two-and-a-half-hour delay in counting ballots due to a glitch in a computer program, LaPorte County election officials are still trying to figure out what happened."Maybe there was a power surge," LaPorte County Clerk Lynne Spevak said. "Something zapped it."

At about 7 p.m. Tuesday, it was noticed that the first two or three printouts from individual precinct reports all listed an identical number of voters. Each precinct was listed as having 300 registered voters.

That means the total number of voters for the county would be 22,200, although there are actually more than 79,000 registered voters.


http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/10103931.htm

"Broward County corrected a computer glitch Thursday that had miscounted thousands of absentee votes, instantly turning a slot-machine measure from loser to winner and reinforcing concerns about the accuracy of electronic election returns.

The bug, discovered two years ago but never fixed, began subtracting votes after the absentee tally hit 32,500 -- a ceiling put in place by the software makers."

Voting machine error gives Bush 3,893 extra votes in Ohio
http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?

f=/news/archive/2004/11/05/politics1149EST0515.DTL

More than 4,500 votes "lost" in North Carolina: http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20041104/ap_on_el_pr/voting_problems

Errors plague voting process in Ohio PA Mohoning Mercer Trumbull Columbiana"
http://www.vindy.com/basic/news/281829446390855.php

In Florida, exit polling data showed the opposite of the final results provided through the state. Even more surprising are the changes in votes per party that occurred on November 2nd. Counties using e-touch voting machines in Florida showed an average vote gain of 29% for Republicans and a 23.8% increase for Democrats. However the counties that used optical scan vote machines showed drastic differences. Republicans gained by 128.45% in counties using optical scan voting machines while Democrats had a -21% loss (yes, that is negative 21%). Some districts in Florida showed gains over 400% while one, Liberty County, gained over 700% for Republicans.

Washington Dispatch: http://www.blackboxvoting.org/cgi-bin/dcforum/dcboard.cgi?az=list&forum=DCForumID4343&conf=DCConfID122

Graphs: http://www.bluelemur.com/index.php?p=388"















Kerry Bush Diff Kerry Bush Diff Kerry Bush Diff BushGain
WI 52 48 4 52 47 5 50 49 1 4
PA 60 40 20 53 46 7 51 49 2 5
OH 52 48 4 51 49 2 49 51 -2 4
FL 51 48 3 50 49 1 47 52 -5 6
MN 58 40 18 54 44 10 51 48 3 7
NH 57 41 16 58 41 17 50 49 1 16
NC 49 51 -2 48 52 -4 43 56 -13 9
CO 48 51 -3 46 53 -7 46 52 -6 -1

average 53.38 45.88 7.50 51.50 47.63 3.88 48.38 50.75 -2.38 6.25


See post#2 to this thread to use these graphics links:










Miami County, Ohio, pre-official results as of 9am EST Wednesday:

Bush, George W. Republican 20,807 65.80%
Kerry, John F. Democratic 10,724 33.92%
Badnarik, Michael 55 0.17%
Peroutka, Michael Anthony 34 0.11%
Cobb, David Keith-WI 0 0.00%
Duncan, Richard A.-WI 0 0.00%
Schriner, Joe -WI 0 0.00%
Parker, John T.-WI 0 0.00%
Harris, James -WI 0 0.00%
Zych, Thomas F.-WI 0 0.00%
Precincts Reporting: 100.00% 31,620


After that, they found nearly 19,000 more ballots and changed their results to:

Miami
Bush, George W. Republican 33,039 65.77%
Kerry, John F. Democratic 17,039 33.92%
Badnarik, Michael 101 0.20%
Peroutka, Michael Anthony 56 0.11%
Cobb, David Keith-WI 0 0.00%
Duncan, Richard A.-WI 0 0.00%
Schriner, Joe -WI 0 0.00%
Parker, John T.-WI 0 0.00%
Harris, James -WI 0 0.00%
Zych, Thomas F.-WI 0 0.00%
Precincts Reporting: 100.00% 50,235
http://election.sos.state.oh.us/results/RaceDetail.aspx?race=PP

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blurp Donating Member (769 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 05:06 PM
Response to Reply #17
32. WRONG!
From the people that actually did the polling --

http://www.exit-poll.net/faq.html

"What is the Margin of Error for an exit poll?

"Every number estimated from a sample may depart from the official vote count. The difference between a sample result and the number one would get if everyone who cast a vote was interviewed in exactly the same way is called the sampling error. That does not mean the sample result is wrong. Instead, it refers to the potential error due to sampling. The margin of error for a 95% confidence interval is about +/- 3% for a typical characteristic from the national exit poll and +/-4% for a typical state exit poll. Characteristics that are more concentrated in a few polling places, such as race, have larger sampling errors. Other nonsampling factors may increase the total error. "

State exit polls have a margin of error of +/- 4% and that's just due to sampling error. So your statement about a 2% margin of error is BS.



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DELUSIONAL Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 08:51 PM
Response to Reply #32
33. The point is that ALL deviations went to BUSH
that should suggest to anyone who has ANY training in Statistics that the whole issue needs investigation.

You keep showing up to shove the Rove talking points down our throats.
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txindy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-07-04 01:28 PM
Response to Reply #33
60. Good point
Both of them, actually. ;) Some people are very invested in stopping us from following through on this investigation, aren't they? Too bad for them. :evilgrin:
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Blue Gardener Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-07-04 02:50 PM
Response to Reply #33
69. Exactly
No way that is a coincidence.
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shampton Donating Member (24 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 11:50 PM
Response to Reply #32
52. The fact that you are here talking to us
means the issue of fraud is debatable. It is an issue.
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lizzieforkerry Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-07-04 01:41 PM
Response to Reply #32
63. HISTORICALLY 2%
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nodictators Donating Member (977 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-08-04 07:14 PM
Response to Reply #17
95. Important comments re Miami County, Ohio
The results gave exactly the SAME percentage, 33.92%, of the votes to Kerry before and after the nearly 19,000 votes were added.

New Info: There are several dozen more counties in Ohio that have very similar happenings, with the percentages for the major presidential candidates remaining nearly constant throughout election night.

I believe that there is a good possibility that the database computers were hacked to show fixed percentages, with just a little bit of slop to make the fix less obvious.
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goclark Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 12:11 PM
Response to Original message
2. Send email to TRUTH ISALL
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glitch Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 12:11 PM
Response to Original message
3. verifiedvoting.org plus DUer pobeka has compiled a lot of stats already
Edited on Sat Nov-06-04 12:13 PM by vidali
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DianeK Donating Member (612 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 12:11 PM
Response to Original message
4. please go to the following website...
http://blackboxvoting.org/


they are looking for people just like your husband to help them along with donations to help them with their our worthy cause

much thanks
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lawladyprof Donating Member (628 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 03:28 PM
Response to Reply #4
23. I gave $50
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molly Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 12:11 PM
Response to Original message
5. There are a few posted here
Edited on Sat Nov-06-04 12:13 PM by molly
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WiseMen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 12:11 PM
Response to Original message
6. We need Kerry and/or the DNC to call for a recount and investigation.
I think there will be many accademic studies (as in Florida 2000), but they won't
change the result unless Kerry is willing to fight this.
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molly Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 12:14 PM
Response to Reply #6
7. Did you see this?
3 House Dems Call For Investigation Of Voter Fraud

Reps. Conyers, Nadler and Wexler sent a letter to the GAO.

<http://www.house.gov/judiciary_democrats/gaoinvestvote2... >
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w13rd0 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 12:14 PM
Response to Reply #6
8. Well considering...
...I made a donation to the GELAC after hearing Edwards (but before Kerry), and they didn't process it (but did accept it) until Friday, I sure as hell hope they are...
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Pallas180 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 10:05 PM
Response to Reply #6
37. Edwards could call for the recount... It has to be a candidate -
so far the only one willing has been Nader
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rodeodance Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 11:11 PM
Response to Reply #37
48. one of the other threads said Green Party has asked for recount in Ohi0
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txindy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-07-04 01:31 PM
Response to Reply #37
61. Badnarik and Cobb, too
Nader wasn't on the ballot in Ohio, Badnarik was. He's planning on challenging there. Cobb is meeting with both of them to coordinate his role. This needs to come from those candidates and the Congress, so that Rove doesn't unleash PR h*ll on K/E. Right now, it doesn't matter who drives what, as long as we do all we can from our end.
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bear425 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 12:24 PM
Response to Original message
9. This is the thread that has the most info
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=1333866

But, please, contact Bev Harris at: bev@blackboxvoting.org right away!
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BrightKnight Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-07-04 01:27 AM
Response to Reply #9
54. This person found something with FL Prop 7 votes
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robbedvoter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 12:25 PM
Response to Original message
10. Mail faun otter - the guy who started this thread
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Woody Box Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 12:27 PM
Response to Original message
11. I'm not PHD, but I've studied math years ago, and I promise you...

...your husband will find HUGE statistical anomalies with standard deviations well beyond 3*sigma, 4*sigma...he will understand what I mean...

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quiet.american Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 12:34 PM
Response to Original message
12. These links may be useful
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jdj Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 01:14 PM
Response to Reply #12
15. for the ones that require registration use bugmenot
Edited on Sat Nov-06-04 01:15 PM by jdjkkse
http://www.bugmenot.com put in the web adress of the paper and they will give you a username and password to skip registration.
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oldtime dfl_er Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 02:35 PM
Response to Reply #15
19. make sure you use www. in front of the site you're looking for
or bugmenot doesn't return any usernames
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area51 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 12:58 PM
Response to Original message
13. One website
Here's one website. And please avoid getting in small planes.
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lizzieforkerry Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-07-04 01:45 PM
Response to Reply #13
64. Or driving next to semi's
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mountainvue Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-07-04 07:42 PM
Response to Reply #64
79. I was just driving down I-70
and saw a tractor trailer, the line was named Covenant out of Chattanooga, TN that had a sing on the back: IT'S A CHILD NOT A CHOICE.
Unbelievable. We're getting messaged on a tractor trailer now?
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lizzieforkerry Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-07-04 09:25 PM
Response to Reply #79
84. I've been telling people all week,
"I don't get it, the Churches put so much time and effort into their Vote the Bible campaign and people went and voted for Bush anyway."
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progressivejazz Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 01:13 PM
Response to Original message
14. Thank God!
I can't help you get the data. Others can.

But thanks to you and your husband. What we need is an analysis done in a professional manner.

'Twould be best if it were done quickly, though. If it surfaces after the Inauguration, we can't expect this scandal, bigger than Watergate, to have Watergate-type results, given the fundamentalist Repub Congress and the collusive Corporate media.

Thank you both again.

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George_S Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 01:31 PM
Response to Original message
16. If he could just verify this, we would be off to a very strong start:
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Robert Oak Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 01:41 PM
Response to Original message
18. I will volunteer, computer/mathematics person
If you need someone to pull data and put it into a readable form
for Matlab, write data translation code, parse HTML and put it into a array or SQL, whatever, just email, be happy to help in any way.

skill areas in CS, EE, DSP, Matlab, MA, C, ASM, statistics and so on. (plus adventures in web design simply to put out the message).

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kimchi Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 02:38 PM
Response to Original message
20. I've got zero expertise, but I want to thank your family in advance.n/t
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mirandapriestly Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 02:54 PM
Response to Reply #20
22. Thank You All You Wonderful People
For Looking at this suspicious election. We must save democracy before it is destroyed!
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DuaneBidoux Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 02:53 PM
Response to Original message
21. You got many sites but I think a GREAT PLACE TO START IS
HERE

<http://ustogether.org/Florida_Election.htm>

If this looks flaky then I think it is worth going further. It seems to be the "starting" point for what could look fishy...specifically the difference in declining DEM turnout between the two types of machines.

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GettysbergII Donating Member (664 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 10:41 PM
Response to Reply #21
44. I second that! A world class site for number crunchers! (nm)
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HPLeft Donating Member (490 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 03:36 PM
Response to Original message
24. Surprising Pattern of Florida's Election Results
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in_cog_ni_to Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 03:38 PM
Response to Original message
25. Thank you! Thank you! Thank you!
Both you and your husband. We so appreciate everything you are doing!
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Cookie wookie Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 03:39 PM
Response to Original message
26. Thank you.
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NJCher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 03:42 PM
Response to Original message
27. consider the source
Coming from a published academic at a recognized university, could be interesting.

You sound suspiciously like the "cultural elite." I think your credentials will, therefore, be suspect.

Maybe if you present your findings after a snake-handling session? Far more credible in Jesusland.

Seriously, I applaud you for your efforts. I have a project I am going to work on over the next four years, too.


Cher
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HPLeft Donating Member (490 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 03:48 PM
Response to Original message
28. Freedom of Information Act Info
Just in case you're looking for data that is not on a webpage.

http://www.chipublib.org/008subject/006govinfo/foia.html
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shelley806 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 04:11 PM
Response to Original message
29. I have a pdf file of Florida voter registrations by county and
the CNN posted election results for Florida by county on MS word. I've stared a spreadsheet with votes cast, percentages won, and numbers of registered Dems and Reps, and type of voting machine used in each county...the spreadsheet I've just started yseterday and it is no where near complete. (I'm not a typist nor a secretary!)But for statistical analysis this is the way to correlate all of the information, and should include exit polling data which I don't know how to find in the unaltered form.

I briefly scanned what's been posted here...last night someone had posted a graphic analysis of Florida's voting growth rate from the 2000 to the 2004 election, for both Reps and Dems, with the type of voting machine used...His/her conclusions were that there had been fraud or error by voting machine in the 2004 elections. I'll post it if it's not on this thread.

I can send the files to someone, but I imagine someone else has already done this! If you want this info, please let me know!
Thank you so much. We need to collect the data first in Forida and Ohio, but I imagine it's more widespread. If the findings are compelling enough, then we demand a recount. This is our country. Our vote. We chose elected officials, not those by theft.
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GreenPartyVoter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 04:13 PM
Response to Original message
30. Please bookmark my website for when you have the info compiled
and need to know where to send it.

--------------------------------------------------------------------
FIGHT! Take this country back one town and state at a time!
http://www.geocities.com/greenpartyvoter/electionreform.htm
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shelley806 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 04:42 PM
Response to Original message
31. Here is the link I referred to by lostnfound...
Edited on Sat Nov-06-04 04:42 PM by shelley806
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=2615219#2620642

Graph of Florida by County by Voting Machine - Change from 2000 to 2004


And this one, which zeroes in on the Sequoia machines, since the trend on those 4 counties seemed particularly obvious.



Conclusion: Tampered or malfunctioning machines handed Bush a victory in Florida.


BTW, I tried to copy and past the graphs, but could not do it with success.
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Pallas180 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 10:15 PM
Response to Reply #31
41. Fla Poll Watcher here - we were told at 6 PM the machines had
Edited on Sat Nov-06-04 10:15 PM by Pallas180
been manlfunctioning...that who you voted for was not necessarily what was voted by the e machine...

Palm Beach County Precinct 7150, 7164,7174

My Exit Poll said that 96 to 98 % voted Kerry.

It was a Haitian voting precinct mostly, and they really came out, including the youth. I KNOW they voted Dem cause they took my democratic palm ticket (voter cheat sheet) and so many we had to photocopy more.

Inside poll watcher advised there were 800 people inside lined up waiting to vote and holding my blue, yellow, pink voting strips of DEM
candidates.

Word is that Bush acquired 88,000 more votes in Florida than were cast.


:)> his legion of demons must have snuck in and voted while I wasn;t looking.
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Pallas180 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 09:58 PM
Response to Original message
34. Here you go - Candidate claims evidence of fraud
it's at top of this same discussion group:

Sat Nov-06-04 09:04 PM
Original message
HOT!! Florida U.S. House Rep. says he has evidence of hacked voting.


going back two years!!! He calls in FBI.

http://www.commondreams.org/headlines04/1106-30.htm

Published on Saturday, November 6, 2004 by CommonDreams.org
Evidence Mounts That The Vote Was Hacked
by Thom Hartmann


When I spoke with Jeff Fisher this morning (Saturday, November 06, 2004), the Democratic candidate for the U.S. House of Representatives from Florida's 16th District said he was waiting for the FBI to show up. Fisher has evidence, he says, not only that the Florida election was hacked, but of who hacked it and how. And not just this year, he said, but that these same people had previously hacked the Democratic primary race in 2002 so that Jeb Bush would not have to run against Janet Reno, who presented a real threat to Jeb, but instead against Bill McBride, who Jeb beat.
"It was practice for a national effort," Fisher told me.


I tell you I've got a case of "secessionitis" that seems to be getting worse daily, but this gives me hope that maybe we can take the fascists to task on this voter fraud. This really looks promising when a politician is so definitive. I want to follow this and offer help in any way we can.
I want to get to Bev Harris and let her know about this very important development so she may be able to lend her expertise if she hasn't already.

Anybody have a pipeline to her? I'm sure she is flooded with e-mails etc. and may miss it.



((((Plus we should all pitch in and buy Mr. Fisher a set of full body armor. )))))


Let's talk about the process from here. Fisher has called in the FBI and will now be faced with all kinds of obstructions by the fascists, let's brainstorm on what those obstructions might be and how to overcome them.


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Pallas180 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 10:02 PM
Response to Reply #34
36. /Does anyone know about the 5 republicans in 5 different states
each who won by 18,180 votes...which just happens to be a computer code for a deleting function : bug 18180 ?

I heard about it but we need the states, the candidates' names

Anyone have more info?
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ROH Donating Member (521 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 11:03 PM
Response to Reply #36
46. I think you are referring to 2002 Elections...
Edited on Sat Nov-06-04 11:07 PM by ROH
2002 Elections ... reference here:
http://www.scoop.co.nz/mason/stories/HL0307/S00064.htm

Edit: additional information...

Who won by 18181 votes in 2002 election?
DANNY SCHEEL (Texas): 18,181 votes (Comol County)
CARTER CASTEEL (Texas): 18,181 votes (Comol Country)
JEFF WENTWORTH (Texas): 18,181 votes (Comol County)
CANDICE MILLER (Michigan): 18,181 Votes (Lapeer County)
MICHAEL SMIGIEL (Maryland): 18,181 Votes (St. Anne's)
All five won and all five Republicans.
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Carolab Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 10:02 PM
Response to Original message
35. Stange stuff in North Carolina
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BeFree Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 10:52 PM
Response to Reply #35
45. Thanks Carolab
I found this thread again and was going to post a link to those funny numbers here, ya beat me to it.

If anyone wants to crunch those numbers further (taken from the NC state BOE website) or wants the raw data , please let me know, I've got tired fingers from doing what I've done so far.
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Faun Otter Donating Member (156 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 10:09 PM
Response to Original message
38. Check your DU mail box
What good timing you have!

I was director of Market research for a Fortune 500 company at one time and have just finished extracting all sorts of good data on votes cast in Florida. I can send these spread sheets in Mac's appleworks format or transform them into XL spread sheets. Please let me know where to send them and in what format.

I grabbed info by county on machine type used in 2004 - 2000 was a horrible hotch potch that even seemed to vary within some counties. I have turnout rates and votes counted type stuff. I had started to sort and look for weirdness but my brain is fried after 48 hours of flat out data mining.

Something looks odd in the figures but I think a lot of little actions were taken to slant the playing field.

Best regards,

Faun
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grasswire Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 10:10 PM
Response to Original message
39. the tens of thousands of DU fingers...
...are at your disposal. With those eager to search and your husband's expertise, let's crack this.
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grasswire Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 10:12 PM
Response to Original message
40. also......
....you should monitor some of the big blogs for info. Daily Kos, atrios, etc. In their comment threads, lots of people post info.
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nolabels Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 10:22 PM
Response to Original message
42. Thank goodness there good supply of people trained in............
Accounting and have extra time to crunch #'s. As a mechanic, if I could help by fixing something I would. This whole election thing seems like it is way broke and they have tried to fix it a wee bit too much already. :kick:
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Eloriel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-07-04 12:16 AM
Response to Reply #42
53. Yeah, the "fix" is definitely in
:evilgrin:
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shelley806 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 10:34 PM
Response to Original message
43. The absolutely best combined statistical data I've found for
Florida is the following link (tons of useful information):

http://ustogether.org/Florida_Election.htm
I didn't include the chart--too much info. The visual chart links are also very useful. (bottom of post)
..................................................................
Surprising Pattern of Florida's Election Results

Note: These numbers were calculated when the Florida vote was 98.6% in.

Explanation of What these numbers are, and how they were calculated:
PERCENT CHANGE for DEM, for example, = (Actual DEM Vote - Expected DEM Vote) / (Expected DEM Vote)

This is a simple percent change measure taught in highschool mathematics.

EXPECTED_VOTES REP = the percentage of registered REP * the total number of voters who voted in each county on Tuesday.

EXPECTED votes would normally vary from the ACTUAL votes due to increased voter turnout or other factors. What seems very odd in these numbers is that the increase in ACTUAL votes from EXPECTED votes has a striking pattern of being so much higher for REPs than that for DEMs in counties using optical scan voting machines.

Statistical Analysis and Visual Charts of the Data
Graphical Plots of FL 2004 Data
Graphical Plots FL 2000 Data - a
Graphical Plots FL 2000 Data - b
Statistical Significance FL 2004 & Graph
Statistical Comparison 2000 vs. 2004 & Graph
Pattern of Difference between 2000 and 2004
Pearson's Correlations FL 2004

Other Election Results Analyzed:
Florida Presidential 2000
Pennsylvania Presidential 2004
...................................................................

I hope this helps!


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rodeodance Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 11:08 PM
Response to Original message
47. thank you so very much.
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Copperred Donating Member (554 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 11:13 PM
Response to Original message
49. Thank you.


Thank you for the effort at an objective look that will pull the establishment academics into this battle...

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rodeodance Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 11:16 PM
Response to Reply #49
51. national media
my television is broken but I would like to know if any media (cbs, nbc, abc, msnbe, fox !! have reported anything on the any potential fraud?
thanks
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txindy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-07-04 01:37 PM
Response to Reply #51
62. Nothing from the televised media
I believe it wil break in the newspapers, first. I'm concentrating my emails on the wire services, print media, plus the BBC and CBC. There's time for mass emailing, but I want to hit the print media, first, HARD. I'm adding the BBC and CBC because they tend to follow-through where our TV talking heads refuse to even look until forced to by either the newspapers or the foreign media.
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Lil Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 11:14 PM
Response to Original message
50. Research on theft of FL panhandle in 2000 - might help to compare
<http://www.onlinejournal.com/Special_Reports/Jordan-Dawshed072501/jordan-dawshed072501.html>

Bush's fifth ace: A crooked Panhandle
Plop some green eyeshades on blind Bob Butterworth
By Elizabeth Jordan and Oliver Dawshed

July 25, 2001

. . .
"What we found was implausible enough to justify an investigation by law enforcement authorities. Precinct level information from 11 northern counties revealed that two parameters which can be logically connected to electoral fraud (ballot spoilage and the number of Gore votes divided by the number of Nelson votes) account for two-thirds of the variation in Gore's performance; the chances of this happening by chance are about 1 in 1047 (10 raised to the 47th power). This was true in aggregate as well as individually. Each of the eleven northern counties that we studied had patterns consistent with cheating by Republicans. These were Bay, Bradford, Calhoun, Columbia, Dixie, Gulf, Hamilton, Jackson, Suwanee, Union, and Washington. Precincts in some counties had discard rates of up to 40 percent of ballots cast! Calhoun and Dixie showed profiles possibly suggestive of ballot box stuffing. We suggest that the most consistent explanation of the statistical anomalies is a pattern of criminal tampering with ballots, primarily (but not necessarily exclusively) by Republicans. In just 14 suspicious precincts with suspiciously high ballot discard rates, 844 ballots for Gore were destroyed in excess of what would be expected. In the 11 counties, the total number of Gore ballots involved is probably in the tens of thousands, our model suggests that 7,100 votes may have been destroyed, so the number destroyed in all northern counties may have been many tens of thousands." (more)

(there is an erratum with regard tospoilage of 40%, that the data for Jackson County were recalculated, and that the model was confirmed at even higher levels of confidence.)

pdf file
<http://www.onlinejournal.com/Special_Reports/Jordan-Dawshed072501/Bush_s_Fifth_Ace.pdf>

You can contact OliverDawshed@aol.com if you need excel files from research.
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Skinner ADMIN Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-07-04 01:07 PM
Response to Original message
55. Very cool.
I will be very interested to learn what (if anything) he finds.
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Woody Box Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-07-04 06:08 PM
Response to Reply #55
77. Hmm...

I will be very interested to learn what (if anything) he finds.

Do you doubt there is something to find?




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TaleWgnDg Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-09-04 05:29 AM
Response to Reply #55
102. it's in ur parenthesis of red flag I also suspect . . . indeed . . .
Edited on Tue Nov-09-04 05:31 AM by TaleWgnDg
but I'd love to be proven incorrect on this.

This is the DU member still known as a DU insomniac. :hi:
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slackmaster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-07-04 01:11 PM
Response to Original message
56. What's he going to compare the official vote count to?
Edited on Sun Nov-07-04 01:12 PM by slackmaster
Exit polls conducted by the media (who have an axe to grind)? Anecdotes?

Anyone can play games with numbers and come up with something that resembles a result.

The ONLY way to prove that fraud has occurred is to catch someone in the act, or find damning circumstantial evidence like more votes than registered voters. Comparing an official count to someone's straw poll can never cut it.
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Woody Box Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-07-04 01:25 PM
Response to Reply #56
58. Re

A statistical analysis may not be suited for a court battle, but this is not the point here. It is sufficient to convince people quickly that fraud has been occurring so that action can be taken.

And of course, the vote count has to be compared to the exit polls. If it doesn't match, either the vote count is wrong or the exit count. Take the "damning circumstancial evidence", take Zogby's predictions (Kerry landslide), take the experience of poll watchers, then you have a damned good case for voter fraud.

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slackmaster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-08-04 10:05 AM
Response to Reply #58
87. But not all the professional pollsters published the same results
Take the "damning circumstancial evidence", take Zogby's predictions (Kerry landslide), take the experience of poll watchers, then you have a damned good case for voter fraud.

Or not.

See - http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls.html - The pollsters were all over the map before the election. If you focus in on just the ones that published results you like, that's cherry-picking.
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KittyWampus Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-07-04 02:02 PM
Response to Reply #56
66. Exit Polls Exist To Guard Against Fraud. That's Why They Are Done
and they are valid in EVERY country in the world except the U.S. where, since 2000, they've been "wrong" for some odd reason.

Actually, the Exit Polls were right in 2000... if all the ballots had been counted WHICH THEY NEVER WERE. Read Greg Palast who proves this.
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slackmaster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-08-04 10:07 AM
Response to Reply #66
88. Not the US election polls conducted by media corporations
They have no mandate to guard against fraud, and clearly have an axe to grind. The organizations conducting exit polls have a vested interest in getting results that are interesting and engaging. A tight race makes for better ratings.

It probably worked in Kerry's favor that some early results showed him ahead. Some voters tend to pick the perceived winner.
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jasmineblue Donating Member (56 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-07-04 01:24 PM
Response to Original message
57. Could also be that op-scan tabulators were hacked
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_I think FL op-scan tabulators were hacked - not touch-screens (GRAPHS)

Edited on Sun Nov-07-04 11:59 AM by scottxyz
Rove is usually one step ahead of us. While we were all keeping our eyes on the touch-screens - could it be that it was the good ole-fashioned op-scans that got hacked? (According to BlackBoxVoting.org, that's easy to do because the vote "tabulator" for op-scans is a Windows desktop computer which can be easily hacked by anyone who knows the right dialup number.)

Check out these 2 graphs, showing that 'actual' results in op-scan Florida counties were tipped way toward Bush versus projected results - while in touchscreen counties, both 'actual' and projected were in-synch.

Op-scan 'actual' (vs. projected) results favored Bush


Touchscreen 'actual' results were in-synch with projected results


Source:
http://ideamouth.com/voterfraud.htm#FL





all&address=203x28397
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jasmineblue Donating Member (56 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-07-04 02:30 PM
Response to Reply #57
68. fixed link
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txindy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-07-04 01:26 PM
Response to Original message
59. You are definitely asking the right people
I can see from the responses that you are well on your way to getting the data needed, too. :toast:
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tommcintyre Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-07-04 01:52 PM
Response to Original message
65. Hopefuly, some link at my EVOTING FRAUD RESOURCE CENTER useful?
"...any websites that can help us collect the data. Any online sources, ideas, anything that may help."

http://www.independentmediasource.com/evotingfraud.htm



Sections:

Article Sections:

11-2-04 and newer:

Featured

Evoting

On Site

Other voter fraud

Older



Other Sections:

Web sites

New Additions

Legislation

Things you can do



Hundreds of resources available through these pages

UPDATED CONSTANTLY. CHECK THE "New Additions" PAGE EACH TIME YOU COME BACK

DU post:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=28512&mesg_id=28512

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BernieBear Donating Member (350 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-07-04 02:17 PM
Response to Original message
67. Please contact Cam Kerry with ANY results
Edited on Sun Nov-07-04 02:21 PM by EarlG
We need to make this a nation wide appeal,
in every local paper, website, radio, news...
any way you can think of to spread this out.

Please contact *********

1. If you were not allowed to vote provisionally
2. If you were turned away from the polls
3. If you had to wait in line longer than 4 hours
4. If you were prevented or discouraged from voting
5. If you have any information about similar incidences
or If you have any information about cases of voter fraud,
ballot tampering, discarded ballots, voting machines counting
backwards, numbers of voters exceeding registered voter totals or
malfunctions and or any other questionable incidences;

Please contact: **********

*** Edited by Admin to remove personal email address. ***

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Blue Gardener Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-07-04 02:56 PM
Response to Original message
70. Thank you so much!
And thanks to all who have posted information here. This should be interesting.
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yardwork Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-07-04 04:00 PM
Response to Original message
71. Thank you to everyone who is helping!
Also, please take a look at all those senatorial campaigns won by Republicans, often unexpectedly and/or with unexpectedly large margins, such as David Vitter in Louisiana.
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seafan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-07-04 10:56 PM
Response to Reply #71
85. Also Betty Castor vs Mel Martinez in FL Senate race!
She was polling above Martinez going into Tuesday.

If Presidential tallies were hacked, we need to look at all the Senate/Rep races, including the amendments on these ballots too! The widespread ramifications of this are tremendous.


In FL in 2002, the amendment for a high-speed train was approved by voters by a healthy margin. Jeb Bush immediately went to work on "devious plans" (his words) to overturn this by lobbying to get it put back on our ballot in 2004, and he was successful. Apparently, he didn't think the silly voters knew what they were doing, wanting that nasty old train, so he forced us to vote on it again. And, guess what? It was defeated last week. Why are we not surprised!!!




If there is fraud in ONE race, there is fraud in potentially EVERY race!

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Blue Wally Donating Member (974 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-09-04 06:00 AM
Response to Reply #85
103. High Speed Train
I am very much an advocate of using mass transit, in particular rail service to relieve highway congestion (Pull all semitrailers off of I-95 at Jacksonville and put them on trailer trains to Miami).

That being said, high speed rail doesn't belong in te state constitution (where the earlier vote placed it) and the cost was terrible. It would have spent billions getting a route just from Tampa to Orlando. Jeb and the others made sure the public understood the cash cost this time and it went down.

If any hanky-panky existed on the initiatives, it was on the one to allow slot machines at greyhound racing tracks and jai alai fontons.
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missouri dem Donating Member (298 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-07-04 04:06 PM
Response to Original message
72. Thank you.
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MotownLew Donating Member (118 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-07-04 04:37 PM
Response to Original message
73. Extensive Michigan Info
I didn't see this link posted, but for anyone interested in Michigan's voting systems, check out:

www.publius.com or www.sospublius.com (same site).

Michigan isn't usually too hip in tech-ish areas like this, so I'm pretty proud of our Secretary of State for once! This site lists all machinery or methods for voting in around 1,550 localities (townships, cities, villages) throughout the state.

I downloaded all info into an Excel spreadsheet Friday, and can e-mail it or get it onto an FTP page for anyone interested, from work tomorrow.

I believe it was George W. Bush who once said... "Fool me once, shame, uh, shame on me. Fool me, uh... Uh... We won't get fooled again."

Well put, Dubya. We won't.
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MotownLew Donating Member (118 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-07-04 07:53 PM
Response to Reply #73
80. Specific Michigan Link
...Specifically, here's the page dealing with voting equipment by type, or geographic region:

http://www.sos.state.mi.us/election/votesys/index.html

Have at it, smart people. Turn that frown upside down and kick some cheating arse.
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Chili Donating Member (832 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-07-04 04:57 PM
Response to Original message
74. I think you've got most of the info here on this thread
...but double-check here, too, there might be some threads from the first night the fraud was openly discussed that have fallen off the first few pages:

http://shadowbox.i8.com/stolen.htm
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flpeach Donating Member (310 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-07-04 06:05 PM
Response to Reply #74
75. Double check here too . . .
http://ideamouth.com/voterfraud.htm#FL

Sorry if it was already posted.
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flpeach Donating Member (310 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-07-04 06:06 PM
Response to Reply #75
76. And here . . .
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Kenergy Donating Member (834 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-07-04 07:23 PM
Response to Original message
78. Thank you Ann for posting n/t
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OldLeftieLawyer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-07-04 08:19 PM
Response to Original message
81. Need any $$$$?
I got some, if you need it.....
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OldLeftieLawyer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-07-04 08:20 PM
Response to Original message
82. Might I add, having read through these responses,
that I am really crazy about the DU people?

You're the tops. You really, really are .............
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AlexHamilton Donating Member (97 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-07-04 09:13 PM
Response to Reply #82
83. Another good Site
Edited on Sun Nov-07-04 09:14 PM by AlexHamilton
Check out the site I help administrate, Impeachment by the People. We keep updated commentary and are always looking for donations and help from fellow dems. We have a recent article that was just published by our other administrator, Anthony Wade, on OpEdNews.com. Here is the link Where the Hell is Our Media?. This is a great place to start to get quick summary of most of the links to possible voting fraud.


Alex Hamilton
Impeachment by the People
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sarahlee Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-07-04 11:02 PM
Response to Original message
86. Another list here
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prolesunited Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-08-04 11:09 AM
Response to Original message
89. Some links here
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sarahlee Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-08-04 01:17 PM
Response to Reply #89
90. One more to bookmark
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dissenting_voter Donating Member (12 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-08-04 01:52 PM
Response to Original message
91. Ohio and Florida data crunched
My wife spent the weekend crunching the numbers for Ohio and Florida into Excel. Most notably, the data shows that the great majority of provisional ballots in Ohio were handed out in counties with the highest African-American populations, and that a disproportionate number of African-American voters (ie. Democratic) received provisional ballots compared to white voters (Do a sort by "Provisional Ballots Issued" in the spreadsheet to see what I mean). Cuyahoga County in particular shows a glaring evidence of fraud through disenfranchisement of African-American voters: Cuyahoga has the highest percentage of African-Americans at 27.4% of the population, with the highest number of provisional ballots issued in the state, 24,788. The next highest number of provisional ballots issued was in Franklin County, at 14,446. The top 5 counties with the highest number of African-Americans is also the top five counties with the most provisional ballots issued. Another conclusion from the data is that the percentage of provisional ballots in Ohio originating in counties with Non-White representation higher than the Ohio state average is 8712% !

As you all know by now, provisional balloting is a scheme invented, not to allow more people to vote, but to allow Republican challengers at polling places to challenge a person's right to vote based on any number of subjective and arbitrary reasons they deem, like voting while black. These provisional ballots are then subjectively certified by a committee of 2 Republicans and 2 Democrats, again supposedly in the spirit of fairness. But, only a 3 to 1 vote allows the ballot to be counted. Therefore, when the two Republicans vote against a particular ballot being counted, and two Democrats vote for it being counted, that's a vote of 2 to 2, and the ballot is discarded. The two Republicans sitting in judgment over the ballots only have to vote against the ballot for it to be discarded.

In Florida, the problems arise mostly from optical scanned ballots and the discrepancies of registered voter affiliation against actual tallied votes, while almost nearly no inconsistencies appear in counties using E-Touch voting machines. Some counties had enormous inconsistencies in the number of expected votes per party compared to the number of registered voters in each party. There was a 459% difference in Republican votes expected over the actual number of votes in Lafayette County, and a 712% difference in Liberty County! When tallied together, if all had voted as expected in Op-Scan counties, the difference would have been a Kerry win by 87,192 votes. If all, including both E-Touch & Op-Scan had voted as expected, the difference would have been a Kerry win by 286,028!

We will need the e-mail address of the professor needing this data in order to send the spreadsheets.
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ignatzmouse Donating Member (327 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-08-04 01:58 PM
Response to Original message
92. Look at the Absentees: NC approximates exit polls!
As we've seen systems with a paper trail came very close to matching the exit polls. Systems without paper trails were often well off the exit polls. BUT THERE'S ANOTHER PAPER TRAIL: ABSENTEE BALLOTS.

Here's a look at North Carolina's absentee ballots. Bear in mind that absentee ballots also tend to reflect less poor and minority voters and be more tilted toward white urban Republican voters -- they should be more out of balance with the polls than in sync with them. If NC's absentees were closer to the exit polls, then, it makes a damn good case that something fishy was up with the return data. NC's absentees were hidden in the precinct data, so it took me a while to download it and go through it county by county. Incidentally, Lee and Catawba counties reported no absentees, so I don't know if they are missing
or recorded elsewhere. But for the other 100 counties, the results are:

BUSH 529,755 53%
KERRY 469,522 47%
OTHER 2749 >1%
TOTAL 100,2026

Interestingly, that's amazingly close to the exit polls, with a slight tilt from 4% to 6% in Bush's favor (not the crazy 14% exit poll disparity). The official statewide results for the general election, however, show a whopping 12% difference in the official numbers:

BUSH 1,926,186 56%
KERRY 1,492,058 44%
OTHER 12,630 >1%
TOTAL 3,430,874

And worse yet, if one subtracts the absentees, to see how the "vote"
actually occurred at the polls, we see a 16% difference -- even further away from the reality of the exit polls -- and this is what they actually sampled!

BUSH 1,396,431 58%
KERRY 1,022,536 42%
OTHER 9,881 >1%
TOTAL 2,428,848

The absentees are loudly pointing out the tampering, and I have a strong suspicion that they will prove similar in other states.
Absentees are the largest real sample we have (more than a million in NC) and minimize anomalies other than a slight Republican tilt. Why else would they be SO FAR FROM THE POLL VOTE if there is not tampering? It is clear evidence that something has been purposely skewed. I think also you will find an even greater divergence in the exit polls from the return data in states like NC and Kentucky with close Senate races that needed an extra push to gain a substantial Republican majority in the Senate...
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loudsue Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-08-04 08:24 PM
Response to Reply #92
98. Thanks, ignatzmouse!! I live in NC, and NO WAY did bush win this state by
anywhere NEAR as much as they said he did. And I will NEVER believe that Burr actually beat out Bowles. There's just no friggin' way.

:kick::kick::kick:
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ignatzmouse Donating Member (327 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-09-04 10:53 AM
Response to Reply #98
104. You're right: Bowles Won
Okay, first up I looked at the absentee voting for the NC Senate between Burr (R) and Bowles (D). I'm happy to announce after another night of pouring through this stuff that Bowles won the absentee voting by a very slim margin.

ABSENTEE TOTALS
BOWLES (D) 492,536 49.254%
BURR (R) 492,116 49.212%
OTHERS 9917 0.997%
TOTAL 994,569

As stated, absentee votes have been discounted as a predictor in the past because they favored a more white, suburban, conservative base out of proportion to the overall vote. With that in mind, let's subtract the absentees from the overall election to find the actual poll vote. We find oddly, just the opposite by a whopping 6.8% gain for the conservative candidate Burr. By moving against the grain, it only makes the case more solid that the absentees are giving us clear evidence of tampering with the poll numbers.

POLL RESULTS
BURR (R) 1,266,738 52.6%
BOWLES (D) 1,103,137 45.8%
OTHER 37,479 1.6%
TOTAL 2,407,354

It is absolutely absurd that anyone can believe the poll results could be so far out of balance. It isn't in the realm of reality. Further, absentee ballots accounted for nearly 1/3 of the overall vote (29%) at just over a million votes. The possibility of an anomaly becomes more insignificant as we approach a greater percentage of the overall vote. There is no doubt in my mind that this thing was rigged, but look at the data and draw your own conclusions.

With the senatorial data we have another set of parameters beyond the presidential returns with which to work. It allows a little better look inside the numbers. Let's see if we can glean anything about how much of a boost there was in the poll vote.

I'm going to begin with the pretty solid assumption that absentee votes tend to be cast by a higher percentage of white, suburban voters than the overall vote. Therefore, if the opposite pattern appears then something is really skewing the data. The differential in NC's presidential percentages is 9.4% toward the conservative candidate Bush. The number is screaming that something is very, very wrong in the poll data. 9.4% is arrived at by looking at the absentee data where Bush led Kerry by 6% (52.9% to 46.9%) and at the poll data where Bush led Kerry by 15.4% (57.5% to 42.1%). Subtracting 6 from 15.4, we get 9.4. It appears that Bush got a bump of 9.4 against the normal grain of elections.

To refine the data further, let's look at the Senate race. The absentee vote was practically tied with a very small margin in favor of Bowles -- the differential is 0%. The poll vote again went against the grain and gave the Republican Burr a 6.8% advantage (52.6% to 45.8%). 6.8 +/- 0 = 6.8. Now, let's take the mean of 6.8 and 9.4, and we get 8.1%. So based on my assumptions, I'm going to say there conservatively appears to be an 8% push of numbers. I would be happy if a statistician could provide more insight, refinement, or adjustment. My work isn't meant to be conclusive, but a starting point.

What would an 8% differential mean to the results? The 56-44 (12%) presidential win for Bush, would have been reduced by 8 to 52-48 (4%), identical to the exit polling. And Bowles would have switched places with Burr, defeating him 51-47.

(I've also posted this info to the North Carolina forum.)
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ROH Donating Member (521 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-09-04 11:05 AM
Response to Reply #92
105. Have these calculations been done for any other states? (n/t)
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ROH Donating Member (521 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-09-04 11:11 AM
Response to Reply #105
106. Also do you have this information for the 2000 election?
Were the absentee and actual poll figures much closer in the 2000 election?
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ignatzmouse Donating Member (327 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-09-04 11:27 AM
Response to Reply #105
107. Cooking the Senate Numbers
I haven't yet but plan to look into it. It's difficult with the North Carolina numbers because the absentee data was hidden in the precinct returns. Sifting through that is a huge undertaking. I have a deep suspicion that the disparity is why some of the battleground states have been awfully reluctant with the absentees. They know its a paper trail that consistently runs counter to the poll results. I have a strong sense that a solid Republican Senate majority was one of three objectives in election tampering: 1)Bush win 2)Senate majority 3)Bush "mandate." Consequently, it bears repeating that states with a close Senate race were probably cooked more. Kentucky in particular seems to have been really turned to get Bunning through.
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ROH Donating Member (521 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-09-04 12:26 PM
Response to Reply #107
108. Thanks...
If you have chance to look at the 2000 NC figures, maybe the absentee and actual poll figures will be close to one another (with absentee figures possibly being more Rep. than actual poll figures for the reasons you mentioned)?

Maybe 2000 absentee figures are more Rep. than actual poll figures, while 2004 absentee figures are considerably less Rep. than actual poll figures... and the 2000 exit poll information could also be a useful pointer?
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tk2kewl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-08-04 03:05 PM
Response to Original message
93. lots of cheap data here
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T Roosevelt Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-08-04 05:26 PM
Response to Original message
94. I've compared 2000 vs 2004 in Florida
(Florida data website listed elsewhere in thread)

Just a basic examination of the numbers:

5 counties FLIPPED from Gore (2000) to Bush (2004)
7 counties Kerry had FEWER votes than Gore (0 for Bush)
63 counties Bush 2004 had HIGHER % of votes than Bush 2000
57 counties Kerry had LOWER % of votes than Gore 2000

In examining the smaller optical scan counties that had higher Dem registration but higher Bush votes (lots of threads on this), only 3 (Hernando, Flagler, Osceola) flipped from Gore 2000 to Bush 2004. So without looking at recent voter registrations, I don't know that we can disregard the Dixiecrat theory (other threads).

19 counties have 22.1% - 34.7% of their population over 65 (2000 Census). These contain 4 of the 5 that flipped (Flagler, Hernando, Pasco, Pinellas). Of these, 2 of the 3 optical scan counties flipped (Flagler, Hernando).

Take from this what you will, but I think it serves as a start to look for discrepancies.
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Dem2theMax Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-09-04 02:20 AM
Response to Reply #94
100. I literally spit on my monitor when I read your post.
Unbelievable! Not your post. The discrepancies!

Now I have to go clean the monitor. :silly:
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tk2kewl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-08-04 07:36 PM
Response to Original message
96. If you need GIS skills or software help
I am a geographic information systems software developer and would love to work with you.
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labouchet Donating Member (25 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-08-04 08:15 PM
Response to Original message
97. What about Benford's law?
I was intrigued when I first read about it (someone on Dkos mentioned it), and from googling I see at least one person has applied it to election fraud.

A maths savvy person might be more familiar with it (I see there are more than a few here). Here are some links that will explain it, and how it can be used to detect fraud:

*******

http://www.vcrisis.com/index.php?content=letters/200410060742
Benford's Law proves fraud in Venezuela's referendum

http://www.nigrini.com/data_analysis_books/data_analysis_using_access.htm
Using Microsoft Access for Data Analysis and Interrogation
Mark J. Nigrini Ph.D.

The data analysis tests described in this book focus on finding anomalies in data sets. These anomalies will usually be evidenced by abnormal duplications of record fields or especially high or low ratios between related records.

In August, 1993 I accepted a position at Saint Mary’s University in Halifax, Nova Scotia. I was convinced that Benford’s Law on its own was a powerful fraud detection technique. My breakthrough came a few years later when on July 10, 1995 The Wall Street Journal published a story titled He’s got their number: Scholar uses math to foil financial fraud. The He was me.

*******

Hope it's useful.
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Magic_Cookie Donating Member (131 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-09-04 02:12 AM
Response to Reply #97
99. Was thinking the same
I've printed off some stuff on Benford's Law & will study it a bit more. I'm limited in my programming experience but if a program could be written to try & test some of these theories all that would be needed was the data & then waiting to find a match. Mind you, the data would have to be entered, which is quite laborious. In other words, at this point it's like trying to find a golden needle in a pile of needles in a pile of haystacks but hey...if that's what it takes. I'm sure there are much more experienced programmers on this board, I'm just trying to apply what little I know to the current situation. Do speak up if you have any ideas/thoughts.
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labouchet Donating Member (25 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-09-04 05:20 AM
Response to Reply #99
101. Nigrini's site has a trial program you can download:
http://www.nigrini.com/datas_software.htm

A Student/Trial version of the Excel program that does the Data Profile, and Benford's Law First Digit, Second Digit, and First-Two Digits test. The file works with Excel 2000, 2002, or 2003. A test dataset is also downloadable.

The Student/Trial version will only process the first 1,000 records in your data set (unless you find the piece of code where I restrict the operation to the first 1,000 records and change it to 65,535 records!).


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eridani Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-09-04 08:50 PM
Response to Reply #97
109. Robert Alcock has already done NH
I included a couple of other links people might find helpful.

www.lesspress.com/politics/NH2004-Benford.htm

http://mathworld.wolfram.com/BenfordsLaw.html

http://www.sciencenews.org/pages/sn_arc98/6_27_98/mathland.htm

by Robert Alcock

There has been widespread concern about the use of electronic voting machines in the 2004 US Presidential election that are supplied by companies with links to the Republican party, provide no paper trail or facility for a recount, and are susceptible to hacking or tampering. (see www.blackboxvoting.org)

Ralph Nader has requested a recount of the vote in New Hampshire, citing "reports of irregularities in the vote reported on the AccuVote Diebold Machines in comparison to exit polls and trends in voting in New Hampshire... These irregularities favor President George W. Bush by 5 percent to 15 percent over what was expected. Problems in these electronic voting machines and optical scanners are being reported in machines in a variety of states."

Benford's Law is a method of statistical analysis that is often used to detect fraud in accounting procedures. It is by no means foolproof but it does provide a "signalling device to detect accounts more likely to involve fraud" (Durtshi, Hillison & Pacini (2004). The effective use of Benton's Law to Assist in detecting
Fraud in Accounting Data. J. Forensic Accounting.). Benford's Law predicts the percentage of numbers beginning with each digit (1, 2, 3, ..., 9) in large samples of data, which could be anything from company accounts to the length of rivers.

I have applied Benford's law to the precinct-by-precinct voting returns from the 2004 New Hampshire Presidential election. using a standard statistical test known as the chi-squared (÷2) test. The results for Kerry and Nader deviate significantly from Benton's law. The probability of this deviation occurring by chance would be 1% for Kerry's numbers and 0.11% for Nader's. In science, a probability of 5% is normally considered as a significant result, so this suggests that the results may well have been tampered with at some stage.

So, is something fishy going on? Well, if I were an auditor I'd want to have a good look at those voting machines, and not just in New Hampshire...

Robert Alcock, www.lesspress.com, 8 November 2004
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benet_gesserit Donating Member (3 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-09-04 09:24 PM
Response to Original message
110. DON'T CONCEDE OUR POWER
Please contact me at benet_gesserit@sbcglobal.net. I am working to pull the resources together for DON'T CONCEDE, MAD AS HELL and blackboxvoting.org, CLG and the other coalition members. Blackbox is doing the analysis of the data from the DREs, but we want to get started looking at other states. Please contact me ASAP.

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