The Gore/Bush 2000 National Exit poll result was right on target.

[TruthIsAll]

Comparing Kerry/Bush to Gore/Bush:

Kerry won 54% of the female vote as did Gore
Kerry won 47% of the male vote, where Gore won only 43%.

Bush won 52% of the male vote both times.
Bush won 45% of the female vote vs. Kerry, but only 42% vs. Gore.

In Kerry vs. Bush, the Female/Male split was 54%/46%.
In Gore vs. Bush, it was 52%/48%.

Kerry did better than Gore because
1) more women voted this time, percentage-wise
2) Kerry improved his share of the male vote by 4%
3) Bush improved his share of the female vote by 3%.
4) Kerry did exactly the same as Gore with the women.
5) Bush did exactly the same with the men.

Gender Split Gore Bush
Male.... 48% 43% 52%
Female 52% 54% 42%

Total 100% 48.7% 46.8%

The Gore margin, based on the exit polls, was 0.9%, which was off by about 0.4%, since Gore won the popular vote by 540,000 out of a little more than 100 million, a 0.5% margin

We don't know what the actual percentages were before rounding to the nearest one percent.
Why do they do this?
They should round to the nearest 0.1%.

They could have been exactly right, or off by as much as 0.9%, yet still falling within the 1.0% MOE.


http://media.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/images/I47271-2000Nov8

[rdmccur]

1. And according to

a website owned by a computer scientist in the Netherlands ( I think)
(http://www.electoral-vote.com) Kerry was doing better than Gore in the pre-election polls the entire week just preceding the election (the website predicted Kerry would win).

[RevCheesehead]

2. Who, or what organization, did the 2000 exit polls?

Was it Mitofsky? Or someone else?

[Carolab]

3. As I understand it, it was the same organization or consortium

but they just changed the name from Voter News Service (VNS) to National Election Pool (NEP) because of "failures" in the 2000 polling. Mitovsky & Edison issued NUMEROUS assurances that the polling this year was going to be MUCH MORE accurate than before.

[TruthIsAll]

6. The great CON is that they have been inaccurate in the past.

They have ALWAYS been accurate.

The fact that the actual votes were fraudulently manipulated in scores of ways gives the naysays and the media rethugs no other choice than to blame the pollsters.

[Carolab]

4. It seems appropriate at this time to reintroduce this from DU:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=103x84870#84968

[TruthIsAll]

5. Correction: Gore exit poll margin was 1.92% = 48.72% - 46.80%

Gore: Actual 48.38% vs. 48.72% Exit Poll
Bush: Actual 47.87% vs. 46.80% Exit Poll

Gore won the final vote by 0.51%.
His tally was 0.34% BELOW his exit poll, well within a 1.0% MOE.

The Bush tally was 1.07% ABOVE his exit poll, beyond the MOE.
Again, keep in mind the roundoff caveat.
The exit poll for each could be off by 0.5% due to roundoff.

Kerry could be anywhere between 48.22%-49.22%
Bush could be: 46.30%-47.30%

But let's assume the exit poll numbers are exactly correct (to within 0.1%).

What is the probability of Bush exceeding his poll number by 1.07%?

P = 0.018 or 1 out of 55.

Hmmm...